Renaissance Ruminations

I just cannot take it...

2006-11-30T08:02:00.000-05:00

...so we are going to give WordPress a try before heading to the pay to play blogs.

Please come visit at renaissanceruminations.wordpress.com

I hope to hear from you soon!

Bwana

Blogger Beta Update-Still Sucks

2006-11-28T14:50:00.000-05:00

After a long time period to allow the tryptophan to wear off, I come back to blog and discover that even if I post in the afternoon much of the WYSIWYG features of blogger are still not working. Even the links for "post options: and "show all" are disabled.

The Blogger Beta still sucks, and I will begin searching for other options.

Bwana out...

Happy Thanksgiving!

2006-11-23T07:55:00.000-05:00

To the denizens of the blogosphere, have a Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy yourself today, embrace the oncoming food coma, and if you go shopping on Black Friday remember this: Don't drive around trying for the perfect place, grab the first parking slot you see!

Michael Collins Lives On...

2006-11-22T07:42:00.000-05:00

I was reading the WaPo coverage of another attack in Iraq against civilians, this time a group of trainee policemen. And as I have done numerous times over the last three years, I thought to myself "Michael Collins lives on."

Much of what Americans might know of Mr. Collins comes from the movie Michael Collins, but that gives an incomplete picture.

Michael Collins was the defacto leader of the Irish Independence movement after Eamon de Valera went to the USA to raise funds. His innovative guerilla tactics ulimately brought the British government to the negotiating table, where the Irish Free State was created. This step caused an estrangement between Collins and de Valera, who would accept nothing but Irish independence as opposed to the near dominion status created by the agreement. After the Irish legislature accepted the treaty, de Valera and his followers broke off and began the Irish Civil War. Collins ultimately led the government forces to victory, but was killed shortly before the end of hostilities in an ambush in County Cork at the crossroads of Béal na mBláth.

There are numerous books and websites that provide the details of Mr. Collins life and impact far better than I can in this blog. What continues to captivate me is how his tactics have survived and proven effective for almost a century. The Israeli guerilla leader Yitzhak Shamir, used "Michael Collins" as his code name in fighting the British, and the conflict to establish Taiwan (in the face of the Communist revolution in China) was called Operation Michael Collins.

The tactics? First, his men did not wear uniforms. Earlier generations of guerillas of all counties in revolt (including colonial america) saw themselves as being part of a national army and were uniformed as if in an army. Collins felt being able to move unnoticed was of far greater value tactically than claiming national pride in a uniformed force. In fact, the British did not have a verifiably accurate photograph of him until Collins was sent to England with Archie Griffith to negotiate with Winston Churchill over the creation of the Irish Free State. Today this tactic is such an accepted point that no one thinks to question it...but Collins was the first to do it.

The second and more pertinent tactic was silencing sources of information. Collins realized the British were able to track down IRA figures adn Dail politicians was that they had impeccable sources of information stemming from their work with the Irish police. Collins created an assassination team called the Twelve Apostles. This team first warned potential targets to stop collaborating with the British, then killed those who continued to do so. This group also carried off the Bloody Sunday executions of fourteen British intelligence offers sent to Ireland to eliminate Collins and his team. This spread fear among potential informers and cut off the flow of information to the British, who then found it difficult to operate.

This interdiction of intelligence is the tactic that he founded, and the fruits of it are seen to this day.

Blogger Beta Update

2006-11-21T16:01:00.000-05:00

Still not what it could be. It seems that half the time that when I blog in the afternoon there is an what was called the "edit HTML" screen and a preview link, but not a "compose" tab...in the morning there is a notepad type editor with out the editing icons of the "edit HTML" screen, there is no preview link, and-of course-there is no "compose" tab.

As yet, beyond the options of labels and the much faster publishing of blogs, I am seeing no compelling reason to have made the change.

Stay tuned for future developments...

California Says Bloggers Free from Certain Libel Claims

2006-11-21T10:29:00.000-05:00

MSNBC reports that the California Supreme Court has ruled unanimously that bloggers cannot be sued for libel for printing the words of others. This protection covers ISP's and users of their services, including bloggers and bulletin board posters.

The Court said: "Subjecting Internet service providers and users to defamation liability would tend to chill online speech".

The case does not address the matter of suing bloggers for words they have themselves written.

The court also said while the ruling may have some "some troubling consequences", that "Until Congress chooses to revise the settled law in this area" people who contend they were defamed on the Internet can seek recovery only from the original source of the statement, not from those who re-post it."

If They Would Only Listen: Why the GOP & the Dems are in Trouble

2006-11-21T07:37:00.000-05:00

I get that folks tend not to listen to me. I have great ideas, great concepts, but they are not everyone's cup of tea. My wife is kind enough to listen, but heavily filters-and, frankly, rightly so. My boss listen's half way, but typically doesn't hear. My kids don't hear me at all until the third time I say something.

Still, when you say something that is so clearly correct and the target is non-responsive...well, that is bothersome.

A year ago in the wake of the Kilgore 2005 loss, many GOP types were extoling the need for a convention to select more electable statewide nominees. I offered up this post rebutting the idea, and said:

"The real key to winning elections is parties that stand for something. The key lies with candidates who promise not just to lead but offer real and achievable ideas that will better the lives of all the citizens that candidate wants to represent and workable plans to make those ideas reality. The key lies with candidates who excite and motivate the party base to work and persuade the undecided voters to believe."

The GOP clearly did not do this in 2006, and were further hampered in Virginia by an Allen campaign that found new ways to stumble. Compare George Allen's reaction to the "macaca" incident to Michael Richards, who after a horrible racial epithet loaded run-in with a heckler in LA immediately went on David Letterman to apologize. This is right out of the Kennedy playbook-screw up, apologize immediately, cauterize the wound, stop the bleeding, and move on. Nonetheless, the reason why this was able to happen was because the GOP has lost its way and has moved far away from either Goldwater-Reagan convservatism or the cut government tenets of the 1994 "Contract with America". Instead, the GOP was seen as being primarily interested in staying in power so as to keep power for the sake of having power. Exceptions like Frank Wolf scored comfortable victories in the face of a Democratic wave because they stand for something.

But the Webb campaign was not much better. While it was a tactical masterpiece of running a campaign and taking advantage of every opportunity, it didn't really make a case for what the Democrats would do, only that they wouldn't do what the GOP did. Jim Webb ultimately ran as not being George Allen or George Bush, and his lack of issue definition now has some bloggers wondering how complete his dedication to the Democratic Party is. At the national level, the Congressional Democrats are still a blank slate, and we really don't know what they will do...even though after a campaign such as we just endured one might think that voters would be able to say with complete confidence what was going to happen.

Why is this the case? Because neither party really stands for anything beyond not being what the other guy is. There is no high level, guiding concept of what either party is grounded in. Both parties seek to protray the other as the sum of it's most extreme parts.

I will say it here, and mark my words this statement will come true:

The first major party that is able to establish an identity for itself will run the table in 2008. It is not a matter of position papers, blogs, websites, study groups, or even individual legislation passed. It is a matter of showing the country a studied view of where the country needs to go, an explanation of how to get there, and a logical and unified concept of governance that ties it all together.

With that, Reagan 1980/84 type victories, even landslides. Without that, neither party can either hope to establish electoral dominance...or even effectively govern for the long haul.

Until they do this, the Republicans and Democrats are in trouble.

Funny how folks react...

2006-11-18T07:52:00.000-05:00

You may recall how during the recently ended US Senate campaign in Virginia the Washington Post chose to focus on George Allen's attire, and to judge by the LTE section that was all well and good-nothing was published to suggest that WaPo was focusing on style over substance, and led to lots of notes to the Ombudsman.

Maybe times have changed.

Today's Letters to the Editor includes several comments on the WaPo writing about the fashion style of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker elect of the House of Representatives, and criticizing them for focusing on Mrs. Pelosi's wardrobe and not her political skills and positions.

Wow...maybe in publishing these letters the WaPo is showing us the paper recognizes it should focus on substance and not style.

Of course, it helps that Pelosi is a Democrat. I am sure once a GOP candidate attracts their attention with fashion stylings good or bad that they can make fun of, they will be back to their old tricks.

Anything for an Edge

2006-11-18T07:35:00.000-05:00

I had always heard that Bo Schembechler would do anything for an edge against Ohio State, but I thought he would draw the line at death.

Understand, I am not a Big Ten guy. I am born and bred to the ACC clubhouse, and I blame Bo and Woody for that. Those two guys made the game boring, plus their hoopsters often seemed more like thugs than players. The way that Woody went out, slugging a Clemson player on the sidelines during the 1978 Gator Bowl, just made the preference more clear.

Bo Schembechler was different, and that is what makes his death yesterday at 77 different. Gruff but articulate, he never lost his temper or his cool under fire, moved to AD after 21 years as Wolverine gridiron coach, and left his mark on the University of Michigan and the state of Michigan in a way that few educators-yep, I use the word educator-have done. His graduation rate was high, and he tolerated no funny business as AD. I mourn his passing.

His death on the eve of the biggest college football game of this season surely will give an emotional lift to the wolverines. While he hated Ohio State, and always sought an edge, I thought there would be a limit to how far he would go. Maybe not...

However, I have never worn the Wolverine colors or bled for the maize and blue, so I leave the final word to a friend of mine who grew up in Ann Arbor and was a scholarship athelete at Michigan. Yesterday I emailed him my condolences over Bo's death, and here is his reply:

"I feel a bit guilty. I was talking to my buddy Todd when Bo was in the hospital and I said, tongue-in-cheek, why can't he hurry up and die so we can go out there and win one for Bo on Saturday.

In the words of Patton (George C. Scott) I pity those bastards...by God I do. We're not just going to kill 'em, we're going to murder them by the bushel. We're going to grease the treads of our tanks with their guts. We're going to grab the buckeye by the tail (yeah, Huns don't have tails either) and we're going to kick him in the ass... Bo always seemed like Patton to me, our field general.

The Washington Post even mentioned his Pattonesque dismissal of Bill Frieder, "A Michigan man will coach Michigan, not an Arizona State man." The image of him presiding over a crowd of Michigan students from the balcony of a fraternity, the night before the Ohio State game, and of him explaining why would beat Ohio State just brings tears to my eyes, "because we're Michigan." I loved that son of a bitch."

Now as I said, I am an ACC man. But just this once...

Go Michigan! Hail to the Victors!

Just When I Thought Things Would be Civil

2006-11-16T06:40:00.000-05:00

The WaPo reports that Speaker Presumptive Pelosi is trying to strong arm democrats into voting for Murtha for Majority Leader. Democrats are angered that Pelosi forces are allegedly urging folks who have committed to Hoyer to vote for Murtha, noting "it's a secret ballot". Committee appointments

Many are upset that Murtha, with his questionable ethics past, was recently heard demeaning the Democrats legislative ethics package that ultimately he will be in charge of getting passed.

In other news, that Tower of Ethics Charles Rangel (D-NY), fresh from insulting the State of Mississippi, now says his extensive praise for Hoyer in a recent interview was not really an endorsement.

As I noted previously, Pelosi's support of Murtha speaks highly of her sense of loyalty (or of her hatred of Steny Hoyer). However, the manner by which she has evidenced that support has been ham handed, and will apparently guarantee bad feelings one way or the other. As Robert Novak suggested:

This is a no-win situation for Pelosi. If Murtha wins today, she will be accused of personal vindictiveness in derailing Hoyer, who is more popular in the caucus and better qualified for leadership. If Murtha loses, as is much more probable, she will be seen as bumbling her first attempt to lead the new Democratic majority. Pelosi could have avoided this dilemma by standing aside as Newt Gingrich, then the presumptive speaker, did when he voted for his ally Robert Walker as majority whip but did not ask members to oppose Tom DeLay.

Pelosi's mistake confirms long-standing, privately held Democratic apprehension about her abilities. Such concerns do not reflect the Republican indictment of her as a reflexive San Francisco liberal. Some of her most trenchant congressional critics are on the left wing of the party. These colleagues worry that her decision making may be distorted by personal considerations.

And all this is before you get into the matters of Alcee Hastings and Jane Harman.

Pelosi is a Democrat, but her initial moves seem to be spreading discord and confusion among her troops and could benefit the GOP...which does not speak well in the short term of her ability to lead the congressional party.

A Few Considerations Prior to the Vote for Leader

2006-11-15T21:24:00.000-05:00

A few things to share prior to the vote for Democratic Leader of the House of Representatives...

Steny Hoyer is a better choice for the Democrats and for the country. His attributes were ably laid out in an endorsement by the Washington Post. The ethics case against Jack Murtha is capably described by Ruth Marcus. Jack Murtha will create a far more partisan atmosphere in the House than will Hoyer, and will create a tone that is contrary to all that Pelosi and Reid has laid out to date.

Now I am a sucker for an amazing success story, and Hoyer's is unique. He was the Boy Wonder of Maryland Politics, elected to the State Senate at the age of 27 and President of the Senate by age 35. He joined the Blair Lee ticket in 1978, but was defeated in the Democratic primary. All seemed done...until US Rep. Gladys Spellman fell into an incapacitating heart attack shortly before the 1980 general election, at which she won easy reelection and then resigned shortly thereafter. Hoyer won the nomination for the seat in a crowded field, and then won the seat...where he has stayed ever since. Not a logical reason to pull for him, but there it is.

Now some call the Murtha choice a gamble. I think it is a win-win for her. If Murtha wins, she has her pal by her side. If he loses, she has demonstrated unshakeable loyalty to her friends, which will serve her well in future congressional negotiations.

I think the key to being a good Speaker of the House is to realize you are not just a national leader, but effectively the mayor of a small town full of powerful people, and you have to keep your people happy. Nancy Pelosi is well schooled in the needs of being a mayor. Her father Tommy D'Alesandro was a congressman (MD-3) and the Mayor of Baltimore. She knows you have to reward those who help you, because then they will help you again...not to different from a mayor making sure his supporters get jobs.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Democrats Wishful Thinking about Wolf

2006-11-15T09:32:00.000-05:00

It seems that Democrats have transitioned from supreme confidence they could beat Frank Wolf in Virginia 10 to engaging in some supremely silly wishful thinking.

A story appeared at the Swing State Project diary, which then got picked up by the Daily Kos, which lead to a WTF? type of post at the Richmond War Room.

Someone has the idea that Congressman Wolf is on the verge of retirement, and lists Virginia 10 as a possible democratic pickup as a result.

H,mmm...there is a term for this...wait...it's coming to me...wait for it...

Oh, yeah! It is called Wishful Thinking!

Having just won a very strong victory against a well funded opponent in a heavily democratic year, one would not likely think of Congressman Wolf as a likely retiree. In a lengthy discussion in a Raising Kaine diary it was conceded even by democratic partisans that Wolf is a difficult opponent because he is clean as a hounds tooth and great with constituent service, and that the seat is likely his until he retires...which is not the same thing as saying he is about to retire!

I understand why they think Dennis Hastert will retire. He is in the minority, and as a result is no longer Speaker of the House. He chosen not to run for GOP Leader in the new session, and has really shown no passion for any issue beyond the accumulation of GOP power. Hastert retire? Good call.

Congressman Wolf is cut from a different bolt of cloth.

A)In the minority? So what? He spent the first half of his time in Congress in the minority.
B) Issues involvement? His passion for human rights is real and unquenchable. His introduction of a bipartisan "Iraq solution" commission is indicative of a man who is in office to find solutions...and who can best find those solutions by staying in office.
C)Intangibles You have got to want to serve in public office. The intrusions into your public life and the personal sacrifices that occur mean that you cannot be an effective elected official unless you want to be there. Frank Wolf has said numerous times it was his childhood ambition to serve in Congress. He has called it his "dream job". He has never once shown an interest in running for statewide office-he holds the office he wants to hold.

Call me crazy, but this does not sound to me like a man who will be retiring any time soon.

Word of Warning to Blogger Users...

2006-11-15T07:40:00.000-05:00

Being one who likes to try the latest and greatest, I jumped onto the Blogger beta option...and it stinks.

My advice...SAVE YOURSELF!!!!!

If you use Blogger, and have not changed over, don't. Wait. Save yourselves, and stick with the current version while Blogger uses maroons like moi to iron out changes.

I’m the Happiest Girl in the Whole USA!

2006-11-13T08:58:00.000-05:00

Russ Feingold, Democratic US Senator from Wisconsin, has announced he will not seek the democratic nod for president in 2008.

Amidst the stunned silence of liberals across the country one could hear distinctly the lyrics of Donna Fargo emanating from Chappaqua, NY.

Why? Because Feingold’s w/d puts Hillary that much closer to an early nomination win in 2008.

Feingold is a true liberal, and his presence in the race was at present the only liberal presence in the field. In a 11.12.2006 article handicapping the field Joe Trippi called Feingold “The One to Watch” ,

"Perhaps the most authentic candidate, the senator from Wisconsin has a deep connection to the grass roots and is a favorite of the party's progressive wing. If President Bush stays stubborn on Iraq and the rest of the field plays it safe, Feingold could get very hot".

But not now...

What was most telling about the article and the field is that there is no one in his list of ten likely candidates who is clearly and obviously to the left of Hillary C. Such a candidate could potentially force her to move to the left on some issues, which would move her away from the critical center. Meanwhile, everyone else who is at present a reasonable contender is no more liberal than Senator Clinton, and many are more conservative.

So what, you might say?

There are two key factors that make the Feingold withdrawal important:

1. A massively front end loaded Democratic nominating process, and
2. Bwana’s Champions Theory of Nominations

The first item is self explanatory…the more front end loaded the process, the less time and opportunity exists for a candidate to develop recognition and support and gradually build momentum. Instead, a huge edge goes to the candidate who comes into the race with the big rep and big resources. Edge: Hillary

The second is where Bwana's Theory comes into play.

Last June I explained my Champions Theory. While not as complex as a Stephen Hawkings Unified Theory, it is perhaps more understandable. My theory is:

in any nominating contest there are ultimately two factions who choose a representative, and the final contest for the nomination is between the two champions. Each faction may have multiple sub-factions, in which case the process takes longer as each sub-faction chooses a winner, then those winners duke it out to see who goes to the finals.

The sooner a champion is chosen, the more time that individual has to campaign beyond the base and maximize their chances of winning.

Yes, I am sure there is a better term than this used in the realm of Game Theory, and if anyone knows that term please let me know.

This theory originally worked to Hillary’s detriment. When Mark Warner left the race, it removed a strong candidate from the moderate conservative faction, making it more likely that the final champion would be found faster, and that person would be the first to be able to expand beyond their faction’s base.

Now, it works in her favor.

If Hillary has no opposition to her left, then she can readily claim the center/left of center turf without serious opposition. The faster she does this, with the built in advantages of money and contacts, etc., plus the front end loaded schedule, the more likely she is to be able to wrap up the nomination before serious opposition to her right has a chance to coalesce behind a moderate-conservative alternative...and that is why the Feingold withdrawal has Hillary humming a Donna F tune.

I suspect that both GOP and Democrats will choose their nominee fairly early in 2008, and that in the absence of another liberal/progressive force joining the Dem field, Feingold's withdrawal may ultimately prove to be the critical stone in nailing down the nomination for Senator Hillary Clinton.

...and the Leadership Fertilizer Hits the Windmill!

2006-11-12T23:39:00.000-05:00

With the elections done, one might have thought that the only excitement to be encountered between now and the swearing in of the new congress is fighting the mall crowds during Christmas shopping season.

Thank goodness for those crazy California liberals to keep things interesting!

Speaker presumptive Nancy Pelosi (CA) has endorsed Jack Murtha (PA) for Majority Leader over Steny Hoyer (MD). You may recall Pelosi defeated Hoyer for Democratic Leader four years ago.
Hoyer responded:

"Nancy told me some time ago that she would personally support Jack," Hoyer said. "I respect her decision, as the two are very close. I am grateful for the support I have from my colleagues, and have the majority of the caucus supporting me. I look forward to working with Speaker Pelosi as majority leader."

Hoyer seems to have amassed significant support, and his backers note the letter is a letter of personal intent and not a letter asking members to support Murtha.

***But why put out such a letter if she is not actively pushing for Murtha?
***If it really is the case that that this is just a favor for an old friend, is Pelosi really savvy enough to be Speaker?
***If Hoyer has decisive support, what is the benefit of Pelosi stating publicly she will not be supporting him?
***Is this some type of in-house move that will cause a fast shift of support to the Murtha column?

Fasten your seatbelts, looks like it is going to be a bumpy ride!

George Allen-What the Future Holds...

2006-11-10T08:06:00.000-05:00

Rust never sleeps, and neither does political prognostication...

George Allen has conceded, and at first glance his political prospects are in a shambles.

However, I have a hunch he is in St. Barton's mode, as related in the old verse:

From: St. Barton's Ode

‘Fight on, my men!’ says Sir Andrew Barton,
‘I am hurt, but I am not slain;
I’le lay me downe and bleed a-while,
And then I’le rise and fight again.

http://www.bartleby.com/243/130.htmlStanza LXVI

With Tom Davis in the wings, fresh off a successful reelection effort and potentially offering the GOP the NoVA antidote they need, it is likely too much to think of George Allen running in 2008 in the event of a John Warner retirement.

However, in six years Allen will be the same age as Jim Webb is now. Six years to burnish his reputation. Six years to raise money for candidates across Virginia, where he clearly still has enormous support.

I suggest that is what is going to happen...save your Allen stuff, because 2012 is right around the corner.

Challenge Us

2006-11-09T22:00:00.000-05:00

In the wake of The Rout (thank you Dick Armey), GOP types in Virginia and across the country are seeking that magic juju that will make all the bad things go away and put them back on the road to victory.

A lengthy list of Virginia bloggers are calling for the head of RPV chairman Kate Obenshain Griffin in the wake of statewide losses in 2005 and 2006. My colleagues at Mason Conservative, Bearing Drift, BVBL, Elephant Ears, and Too Conservative are clearly willing to head up this auto-da-fe.

In comments on other boards there have been comments that the GOP just needs to nominate candidates that are a little less conservative...in a post at elephant ears Jack Landers (of Rule .303 fame) suggested on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being ultra conservative, nominate 4's instead of 5's.

You folks have it wrong. You see, if this election is one that the GOP lost more than the Democrats won, then both sides are lacking something important. Whack a leader, try to moderate...these ideas have been tried before and not always successfully. I suggest, to quote Abraham Lincoln, that "the dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present". .

Mr. Lincoln is again right. the old nostrums are inadequate to the complex world we live in. As it happens, it is a lot simpler than that.

We need to be challenged.

We need candidates who understand they need to lead, and personify what Americans want. Not what they want to hear, but what they need to hear. Not the language that is calculated to win votes, but the language that will win hearts and minds. We cannot bring back Ronald Reagan, but we need someone who, like the Gipper, recognizes what is great about our people and gives it voice.

Americans are optimists. We belive we can succeed. It is part of our DNA, and the reason why this country is the preferred destination of everyone in the world who wants to get ahead and have a better life. We believe we can do bizarre things like conquor a continent, cure disease, better the world with industrial invention. We accept great challenges -and we do it no matter how difficult the task. Challenge us to change the world, and we will follow.

Republican, Democrat, liberal, conservative. These are just labels, words with meanings that can change. What is needed are leaders who challenge us, who demand that we follow "the better angels of our nature" and not fall into the slimy, soul sucking pit of special interests and the ultimately unsatisfying shark pit of wedge issues.

Offer us direction. Offer us inspiration. Offer us integrity and conviction, and the people will respond. Speak to us as if we were neighbors and not members of a demographic group. Challenge us to do better by veing better, and we will respond. Challenge us to face the future with vigor and excitement, and we will respond. Challenge us, don't patronize us, and we will respond.

We are the children of liberty, the descendants of folks who came to this country in first class and in steerage, in yachts and in row boats, in planes, trains, and automobiles, who wanted a better life and came here to make it happen.

This is not about position papers, focus groups, left, right, red, blue. It is about finding candidates who are willing to speak from the heart with conviction and a clear voice about things that matter to us and affect our lives.

Look at us and speak to and for us-do not look by us and speak about us.
Challenge us-don't coddle us.
Raise the light of liberty and lead us-don't raise the spectre of hatred and racism.
Lead us up the hill, and not into the mud pit.

It is really simple.

Challenge us. Challenge us to work together and not apart. Challenge us to be better than we are, to be all we can be and accomplish all we can do.

It can be done, and the party who will do this will cause a realignment that is based not on geography but in hope, a hope that takes root in the heart and in the head.

CHALLENGE US!

As a Renaissance Man I Prize Diversity...

2006-11-09T11:31:00.001-05:00

...in thought and action. As such I can not only speak jive and redneck, but also have friends on all sides of the partisan divide.

One such pal is near out and out fellow traveling lefty in Va-8 who has started a new political blog notmariocuomo.blogspot.com.

I don't always agree with what he says-he thinks Mario Cuomo is the greatest living politico from the Empire State, while I say it's Rudy Giuliani-but what he says he always says well.

Mosey over and take a gander...

Words of Wisdom...

2006-11-09T11:25:00.000-05:00

In the wake of the GOP losses there will be lots of fingerpointing in the weeks ahead...however, I find myself agreeing with Tom Coburn, GOP Senator from Oklahoma, and his analysis of the recent election and future political paths for both parties:

"Some have said that Republicans and Democrats now need to govern from the middle. I disagree,...We do not need to govern from the center as much as we need to govern from conscience. When politicians have the courage to argue their convictions and lose their political lives in an honest battle of ideas, the best policies will prevail."

"The American people do want civility, but they also want real debate. Civility does not mean an absence of conflict, but a return of honor and dignity in our politics. Voters are bored and tired of partisan role playing in Washington. ...One of the great paradoxes in politics is that governing to maintain power is the surest way to lose it. Republicans have the ideas to solve our greatest challenges. If we focus on ideas, our majority status will take care of itself."

Exactly!

Recount Clarification-Conditions

2006-11-09T06:51:00.000-05:00

The conditions for a recount in Virginia have been stated and misstated quite a bit recently, so let me set the record straight:

1. Recount option opens up after the official canvas of the voting precincts is completed and a result announced.
2. There are no automatic recounts
3. A candidate who loses an election by 1% or less of the votes cast in his/her election can request a recount.
4. If the margin is less than 1/2 of 1% of the vote, the state and localities pick up the cost of the recount, otherwise the requesting candidate picks up the charge.

Given how much movement we saw last year in the McDonnell-Deeds recount, I have to think Allen could leave office gracefully if he passed on a recount. However, given that Allen's political career is likely over in the wake of this defeat, he also has nothing to lose...so I fully expect him to request a recount.

Random Thoughts: A Pat on My Back, Winners and Losers, and No Recount

2006-11-08T06:07:00.000-05:00

After a long night of following returns, I am off to DC for the annual Red Hat GUC, and then to Manassas, so I thought I would offer a few random thoughts on the events of the past week and on last night's results.

Two tough years: The Democrats have taken both houses of Congress. I forsee gridlock. This is the natural result of winning elections through wedge issues and appealing to the base without trying to gain wider support.

I was right, Part 1: My predictions rang true on the elections yesterday, and I suggest that the boys over at Richmond War Room owe Dan Scandling and the Frank Wolf a huge "OOOOOOOPS" for their repeated suggestions the Wolf effort was a stealth campaign, that they were overconfident, etc. Congressman Wolf exceeded my predicted 56%, Feder barely broke 40%, and that despite likely outspending Wolf. The Wolf campaign ran smart, they ran silent, they ran deep, and like the deadly subs in that referenced movie they put numerous torpedos in the good ship Feder with devestating results.

I was right, Part 2: I predicted in September that a losing Allen campaign might help GOP incumbents in Virginia:

There is a reason why Congress as a whole keeps getting low marks in public polling but the membership doesn't turn over. While there are the benefits of incumbency and partisan redistricting, I bet there are a lot of folks who like their congressman while being unhappy with the instution. I also suspect that there are folks out there who want a way to register their disapproval of the Bush administration while supporting their congressman (who they like, respect, etc.) A split ticket-vote Democrat in the Senate election, GOP in the House election-would allow them to do that...and the bad press for Allen will continue to make that option very palatable to a lot of folks.

Looks like I got that one right.

Congrats to: Jackson Miller and Corey Stewart, who won their races for Delegate and Board Chair in Prince William County, and can now prepare to run for reelection in 11/2007.

Kudos to: Jeanette Rishell and Andrew Hurst, who fought strong campaigns and finished much better than I expected.

Big winner Yesterday: Hillary Clinton. She wins reelection as US Senator, while the Dems take both houses of congress. After two years of gridlock, where Bush veto's numerous democratic legislative initiatives, she can run for President in 2008 as a uniter who can move us beyond partisan gridlock.

Big Loser: George Allen and Ned LaMont

Big Winners, VA: All those who won, but especially Jim Webb and Thelma Drake. Also Lowell Feld and Ben Tribbet who played huge roles (respectively) in (a) getting Webb into the field an (b) spreading the word of Allen's various missteps, and in doing so took George Allen from presidential hopeful to private citizen.

Be Careful what you write: I noted earlier this week how several PWCo Democratic bloggers took flight on an anonymous report that GOP Internals showed Corey Stewart losing to Sharon Pandak by 7 points...which somehow turned into an 8 point Stewart win by election night. Doesn't matter whether you are MSM or a blogger, anonymous sources-especially ones with partisan motives-will burn you!

Well Intentioned advice for George Allen: You are down by 8000 votes, and that gap is likely to get larger. Creigh Deeds only made up about two dozen votes in his recount against Bob McDonnell. If the margin does not narrow significantly when all the precincts come in, you should consider declining a recount unless you have significant evidence of voting irregularities that would change the result.

More later, after I have the chance to absorb the results.

Start Your Engines!

2006-11-07T23:04:00.000-05:00

It is now 11:01 PM EST, and the polls on the Left Coast have just closed.

The 2008 Presidential Campaign begins NOW.

Wolf, Davis over the top...

2006-11-07T21:52:00.000-05:00

CNN has projected both Tom Davis and Frank Wolf as winners in their races. Tom Davis is being pressed more by Andy Hurst than I expected (55%-43%), and Frank Wolf is scoring much higher than the blogosphere projected (57%-41%-1%-1%).

Allen and Webb still too close to call...

Results Coming in...

2006-11-07T20:05:00.000-05:00

...on CNN. the numbers seem to be getting to CNN faster than the SBE page.

At least that is the case as of 8PM...

General Predictions for Today and the months ahead…

2006-11-07T09:56:00.000-05:00

The polls are open, and will join the blog crowd and offer my predictions...

Virginia 2-Drake wins with 51% of the vote. I have absolutely no contact with this district, so I am whistling in the wind here. But I am betting that although the Kellam influence goes deep, dodging the debates will come back to hurt him. On the other hand, if Kellam can win this, then immediately consider him to be on the short list of Democrats to run for a potential open Virginia US Senate seat in 2008...more on that later.

Virginia 8-The embarrassing reign of Jim Moran will continue. I understand that the eighth was cut to be a democratic district, but can’t the Democrats find someone a candidate who is not a walking embarrassment?

Virginia 10- Frank Wolf will win this race, and will win by a margin that surprises the vast majority of the blogosphere (i.e., most bloggers seem to have him getting below 55%). Congressman Wolf will get at least 56% of the vote, and perhaps higher. Why do I say that? Not only does he have a superior record to run on, not only is the recognition of his strong service recognized across the district and validated by the unbroken string of endorsements from the Potomac News and Manassas Journal Messenger in the east to the Winchester Star in the west, not only has he avoided being swept away by the tsunami of out of state money, but he has 26 years of exceptionally strong constituent service to run on.

The big shock here will be that despite national trends, huge amounts of out-of-state money coming in for Democrat Judy Feder, changing demographics in the district, GOP losses in Va HOD races in 2005 and a special state senate election in 2006, plus a big Kaine win in 2005, Wolf will not only win the district by a wider than expected margin, but he will carry his portions of Fairfax and Loudoun counties and will make for an early victory party...

Virginia 11-Tom Davis defeats Andrew Hurst with 60% of the vote, sending Davis to prepare for a possible Senate run in 2008 and Hurst in search of a State house or supervisor race. I have my doubts that Hurst will be able to claim the 2008 democratic nomination if Davis runs for the Senate with any greater ease than Ken Longmeyer was able to get his rematch this year. Too many Democratic pols want to go to Congress, and folks like Gerry Connolly will push Hurst aside despite his vigorous campaign this year.

Marriage Amendment-this proposal loses 55%-45%

Virginia US Senate-I have Webb with 50%, Allen 49%, Parker 1%, but I am torn.

Why?

Normally, one would think that an incumbent who is not at 50% in polls immediately before Election Day is in trouble, as undecided’s will break away from the status quo. However, it would seem that Webb should have put this away weeks ago. Macaca, deer heads, nooses, Confederate flags, bad reaction to discovery of jewish ancestry, allegations of racism against Allen...with all this and more out there, Webb should have gone over 50% some time back. One would think that if the character stuff that has been thrown at Allen was going to stick, it would have stuck and sunk him by now.

Given the general state of the nation and discontent with the GOP, I pick Webb to win...but would not be surprised if Allen scores what at this point would be a come from behind victory.

Polls are Open...

2006-11-07T06:09:00.000-05:00

...and months of effort come down to the next thirteen hours.

Or, as my late West Virginia cousin Claren Bailey used to say" Vote early, vote often!"

Of course, this was usually after a late night spent taking names off of tombstones so they too could enjoy the suffrage!

So even though the Commonwealth has taken great efforts to ensure that it is one ballot per customer this year, and whatever your partisan affections and affectations, remember to go to the polls and cast a ballot.

It is a simple act, but the fact that you can vote for the candidate of your choice to decide the affairs of this country is a fundamental freedom and opportunity that makes this the greatest country on earth. Don't waste it-VOTE!

In Virginia’s 50th, Has Bruce Roemmelt Given up the Fight?????

2006-11-06T21:31:00.000-05:00

As has been said elsewhere, "logic and linkages…"

I’ve never met Bruce Roehmelt. He seems like a nice enough guy, and I have the utmost respect for anyone who has picked up a weapon and stood a post. In fact, it appears he was in Southeast Asia about the same time as my father-in-law, father of SWMBO. Bruce is certainly devoted to his friends and to his causes, and will fight to the last ditch as long as there existed any chance of them winning.

Needless to say, when I saw his post earlier today claiming Jackson Miller would vote "No" on the marriage amendment, I was confused. All indications are that Miller is voting "Yes", and Bruce R. does not seem like one of those folks who believe that members of any denomination must blindly follow in lockstep the all the tenets of their faith...can you imagine Bruce saying a Catholic politico must be Pro-Life? Why would he assume that Miller would not follow his own mind?

I knew something must be up...and then it came to me---Bruce has given up the ghost in the 50th House District election.

Why this conclusion? Here goes my reasoning...

*Bruce is a fierce fighter;

*Bruce is a fierce supporter of Jeanette Rishell in her campaign against Jackson Miller in the special election for the VA-50 House of Delegates seat;

*Bruce has energetically spoken up for the candidates of his choice this election cycle;

*Bruce seems like the type who will fight with all his might until there is no chance of winning;

*Bruce has to know so many of this year's races are extremely close, and will rise or fall on GOTV

*It has been claimed that the Va-50 race is one of those races

*Yet at the 11th hour, Bruce is spending time coming up with a post-likely an attempt at humor-making claims about how Jackson Miller will vote regarding a constitutional amendment instead of spending that time working to elect his candidates.

Why? Why waste time like that?

He must have decided his folks have no chance of winning, especially Ms. Rishell.

And since they have no chance of winning, why waste time with more campaigning? Better to spend the time luring folks in with the promise of a big announcement, then pull off an early November "April Fool" joke by making an assertion about Rishell's opponent that no one will believe.

Could all this be true?

So to Bruce R I say, thanks. First the miraculous ‘Skins victory and now this. What a great first indicator of a Miller win on 11.7.2006.

And remember...imitation is the most sincere form of flattery! ;-)

PW Dem Blogers show why Blogs are Unreliable

2006-11-05T18:20:00.000-05:00

One of the real issues with blogs both by the MSM and the public in general is that blogs are not held to the same rules and regs regarding accuracy as the MSM.

Two blog postings today out of PWCo show why that mistrust is well founded.

This AM as I cycled through the normal blogs, I saw that on 11.4.2006 the Howling Latina howled out (and what else would she do?)that a GOP internal polling showed Sharon Pandak leading in the PWCo Supervisor special election. She cited Craig Vitter's post as proof.

So I follow the link over to the primary posting at Craig's Musings, where Craig in the comments says he got the information from:

"I picked this up from an anonymous source. I checked around a bit last night before posting with other sources that told me they had heard rumors to the same effect in the past week about the GOP poll."

So, Craig-who in the last month has gone deep in the hole for all Democratic Party candidates-got information from an anonymous source, which he then verfied through other anonymous sources, and then posts as the gospel truth.

This is the nature of blogs, and the problem with blogs. Anyone can post anything they want, and the fact that the post is in electronic print suddenly gives it credence. If any newspaper, radio, and/or television station in the MSM printed such information and tried to pass it off as substantive news, they would lose whatever credibility they might have.

It is one thing to offer an opinion on a matter-based on whatever you want to cite. It is another thing-and a sad one at that-to try to pass off that opinion as fact while wrapping it in anonymous sources to give it some degree of legitimacy.

Update: Apparently Craig's source had the percentage right and the candidates wrong-Stewart over Pandak 53%-46%

Frank Wolf Endorsements Continue Unabated

2006-11-03T22:26:00.000-05:00

Having already been endorsed by papers across the 10th district, Congressman Frank Wolf today received the endorsement of the Winchester Star.

This gives Mr. Wolf a near unchecked string of newspaper endorsements across the 10th District, something that has to bode well for election day.

My colleagues the Richmond War Room have offered continuous commentary on this campaign, and have predicted that Wolf will score no higher than 52%.
I beleve they have underestimated what they insist on calling the Wolf "Stealth Campaign", and suggest that Frank Wolf will score at 56% or more.

I step away for a few days...

2006-11-01T08:00:00.000-05:00

...and the world goes barmy!

I will not go into details on links and such, as this is more summary of known events than analysis of the new. Nonetheless, I take four days away to take care of kids birthday parties and pressing family bidness, and look what happens...

a) George Allen poll numbers tank, and the Allen campaign starts to pray for rain on election day.

b) Network television starts in the 10th. Judy Feder, who has been going negative since July, complains that Congressman Frank Wolf's television advertisements are negative-and then puts up her own attack ads that do not accurately source the claims in her commercial.

c) A Michael Moore wannabe jumps in Senator Allen's face, and gets removed. Depending on your point of view, this is either police state extremism (D) OR proof of democratic anger and insanity (R) OR evidence that all bloggers are crazy at heart (SWMBO) OR evidence that some people are so determined to get attention they will act in the most bizarre fashion possible so they can have their fifteen minutes of fame ( Reality TV view of the world).

d) Just when you thought the world was safe from John Kerry's oratorical malaprops, he cooks up another one. I am glad Senator Kerry is kept gainfully employed by the voters of Massachusetts, as he clearly would starve on the comedy circuit.

e) And lets not forget fisticuffs on the set of Greys Anatomy, which apparently leads to an actor on the show coming out of the closet.

CRAZY, MAN, JUST CRAZY!!

Google Bombing, continued

2006-10-27T11:44:00.000-04:00

Apparently I am not alone in noticing the great Google Bombing Plot planned for Election Day 2006.

More thoughts on Obama...

2006-10-27T07:37:00.000-04:00

The subject of a Barack Obama candidacy in 2008 has been mentioned briefly here at RR and again over at Phyillis Randall's blog.

Now Charles Krauthammer offers his view in the WaPo.

CK suggests an Obama run in 2008 is a win/win/win, and offers the following scenarios, where Obama would:

A) Win the nomination and presidency, OR
B) Loses the nomination but gets the VP nod and the Dems win, which sets him up for 2016, OR
C) Loses the nomination, gets the VP nod and the Dems lose, which sets him up for 2012.

For a moment, assume Obama runs and is not nominated for the Presidency. The biggest advantages to this scenario are experience and candidate queueing. Obama's biggest experience gap is in foreign policy, something that will be remedied by a term or two as VP. Plus, a good showing as a nominee candidate moves him to the front of the candidate queue for the next open democratic presidential slot, be that from the VP position or as a sitting US Senator.

CK suggests that right now Obama is hot, hip, and happening. He must strike when the iron is hot. As I have noted before, in politics sometimes you have to not when you want to, but when the opening presents itself...and 2008 will be the first completely open year since 1952, with neither an incumbent president running for reelection nor a sitting VP going for the top spot himself.

The ultimate point here is that Obama has more to gain from running-even if he loses-than by not running IF his ultimate goals is the White House.

...and more endorsements for Wolf, Webb, Davis, and Moran

2006-10-26T07:50:00.000-04:00

I noted yesterday that the Loudoun Connection had endorsed James Webb and Frank Wolf in their respective races. It actually went farther than that...it was the entire Connection paper chain (with papers in Loudoun, Fauquier, Clarke, Prince William, and Fairfax Counties) that endorsed both candidates, plus in other parts of their readership the Connection also endorsed congressional incumbents Tom Davis and Jim Moran.

The Time Community newspaper paper chain, with papers in Fauquier, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Clarke counties, has begun its endorsements. Its papers in Fauquier, Loudoun, and Fairfaxendorsed both Webb and Wolf, plus incumbents Davis and Moran.

Democrats set to GoogleBomb 2006 Election

2006-10-26T07:31:00.000-04:00

WebPronews.com reports that Democratic supporters have made plans to GoogleBomb Republicans in the run-up to the 2006 elections. Targets in Virginia include George Allen, Thelma Drake, and Frank Wolf.

Chris Bowers of My Direct Democracy announced plans on his web page on October 22, with a Daily Kos cross post that has already drawn over 350 responses.

Why do this? As described in the DailyKos postings:

"The idea is to associate a particular term (in this case, a candidate's name) with a particular webpage (in this case, a news article with unfavorable facts about the candidate) and increase the web traffic linking the term and the page so that the web page turns up in the top-ranked results whenever the term is Googled."

A fuller description of the process can be found here and
here. For a discussion of the "miserable failure" GoogleBombs in the 2004 presidential campaigns go here.

The logic behind this effort is that many voters will go web searching in the last days of a campaign to get information on candidates. Bowers' idea is to create Google Bombs that link these candidates with the worst articles abotu them from non-partisan sources.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Of course, this seems to be another example of a practice that if done by the GOP is is linked to voter supression or misinformation, but if done by Democrats it is considered clever.

WaPo at it Again...

2006-10-26T07:26:00.000-04:00

Desparate for a new way to throw mud at George Allen in the absence of any mud to throw, the WaPo returns to its old favorite, the slanted news story.

The folks over at From on High have it about right.

If the James Webb campaign had purchased a full page of advertising in the Post (which is about the print space it would takes to show this article), how much would that cost? The real $$ total of campaign funds spent by Webb will never be accurate until some type of in-kind contribution from the WaPo is added.

Rush Limbaugh is an ASS-Medically speaking, of course

2006-10-25T11:29:00.000-04:00

The Washington Post reports that actor Michael J. Fox, in the throes of a long struggle with Parkinson’s Disease, is campaigning for Democratic Party candidates this year, and Rush Limbaugh doesn't like it.

Fox recently cut advertisements in support of embryonic stem cell research and against candidates who oppose it.

Relying on his vast medical knowledge and training, talk show host Rush Mr. Limbaugh came out swinging:

"He is exaggerating the effects of the disease," Limbaugh told listeners. "He's moving all around and shaking and it's purely an act. . . . This is really shameless of Michael J. Fox. Either he didn't take his medication or he's acting."

To quote Bugs Bunny, “what an imbesile [sic], what an ultra maroon.”

Expert opinion suggested that Mr. Limbaugh’s knowledge of modern medicine is not as great as implies.

"Anyone who knows the disease well would regard [Fox's] movement as classic severe Parkinson's disease," said Elaine Richman, a neuroscientist in Baltimore who co-wrote Parkinson's Disease and the Family. "Any other interpretation is misinformed."

Limbaugh later reluctantly apologized via a web page transcript…:

“Now people are telling me they have seen Michael J. Fox in interviews and he does appear the same way in the interviews as he does in this commercial," … "All right then, I stand corrected. . . . So I will bigly, hugely admit that I was wrong, and I will apologize to Michael J. Fox, if I am wrong in characterizing his behavior on this commercial as an act."

…but changed his focus, saying :

"Michael J. Fox is allowing his illness to be exploited and in the process is shilling for a Democratic politician."

Unsurprisingly, Mr. Limbaugh’s medicinal knowledge is limited to matters regarding prescription medicine, and clearly not to be influenced by common sense. It is not unusual for Mr. Limbaugh to presuppose his own omniscience on political matters big and small. However, one would think that perhaps Mr. Limbaugh would check with physicians before venturing an opinion outside his experience. Instead he assumes to know what he is talking about, and presumes to judge others, making himself look tres stupido.

Why does this bother me? First, I have enjoyed Mr. Fox's work for years. His talents have afforded me many hours of entertainment, and I am saddened by his condition. Second, politics is not making mud pies. We can advocate for the causes we want within the limits of the law and our abilities and our opportunities. If Rush Limbaugh is angry about these ads it is because he knows they are going to be effective, not because he has concerns about Mr. Fox being "exploited".

I think we should probably pity Mr. Limbaugh, as clearly he is suffering from his own debilitating condition. I imagine the medical term is something:

Assumptive
Stupidity
Syndrome

Unfortunately, in a man of Limbaugh’s years there is normally no treatment. However, he could start by inviting Michael J. Fox on his show, apologizing in person, and then allowing Fox to talk about the effect of Parkinson’s disease and what people can do to help end it.

2006-10-25T08:43:00.000-04:00

Reagan 1984-A Bear in the Woods

This AM I join the Richmond War Room in bringing back a classic campaign advertisement...however, this is the amended version. The original ended with the hunter leveling his rifle at the bear.

Wolf and Webb in Loudoun Connection

2006-10-25T07:52:00.000-04:00

The Loudoun Connection has made it's Tenth District Endorsements, and they mirror the Washington Post.

The paper endorsed Frank Wolf for the US House:

As a member of Congress, Frank Wolf appears to wake up every day and consider how he can use the power of his office to make the world a better place. He is a man with tremendous empathy and a moral compass. He is an independent thinker who doesn’t let ego get in the way of bringing various sides together to do the right thing.

After 26 years in office, he is if anything more passionate than ever about human rights — working to curb human rights abuses in Darfur and other places around the world. He has traveled to the Sudan repeatedly, working to keep the ongoing atrocities in public view and advocating for action. He has also traveled to Iraq and Afghanistan repeatedly in the past five years.

Wolf is just as passionate about problem solving on a local level.

One of the things that makes Wolf so effective is his ability to listen. He listens to law enforcement officers carefully, often identifying trouble in the works long before anyone else. Examples are his early warnings and funding to help fight gang activity, and his efforts to fight the spread of methamphetamines.

Wolf has worked to contribute to solutions for the region’s traffic congestion, from promoting flextime and telecommuting especially for government workers, to funding for Metro, to thoughtful and incremental approaches such as spot intersection improvements and timing of traffic lights.

Wolf is creative at problem solving, proposing an independent review, the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan 10-member group co-chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker and former congressman Lee Hamilton, which could offer a path to solutions in Iraq that might be acceptable to all sides.

Wolf also worked to establish a similar panel to examine federal spending and tax policies to develop proposals to head off the impending federal budget train wreck.

and James Webb for the US Senate:

There’s no doubt that Jim Webb is not a natural candidate. That’s just one more reason to vote for him for Senate over George Allen.

Webb would make an excellent addition to the Senate, with intellectual capacity and experience to help unravel some of the critical problems that body will face in the coming years.

Recently converting from Republican to Democrat, Webb opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, vigorously and publicly arguing against it in the months before invasion.
But Webb has significant credentials. A former Marine, Webb served in Vietnam, and was awarded the Navy Cross, the Silver Star Medal, two Bronze Star Medals and two Purple Hearts. During the Reagan administration, he served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense of Reserve Affairs and as Secretary of the Navy.

If elected, Webb might be the only senator with a son or daughter serving in combat in Iraq. But Webb does not trumpet his own service or his son’s on the campaign trail, aside from wearing a pair of his son’s used combat boots.

Webb has written nonfiction books and six novels, and while his opponent would seek to make fun of Webb as a “fiction writer,” Webb’s accomplishments show no small amount of intellectual capacity and work ethic.

There are also powerful reasons to vote against George Allen.

Allen’s six years in the Senate lack legislative legacy or accomplishment. While this week he has tried to show that he is not in lockstep with President Bush on Iraq, he lacks ideas for any alternative to the current mess there.

And the past months have brought fresh, visceral evidence of Allen’s racial and ethnic insensitivity, reinforcing decades of racial insensitivity. If you haven’t watched the “macaca” video for yourself, you should. It compounds and confirms concern about Allen’s views, adds to evidence of Allen’s fascination with the Confederate flag and past display of a noose, a symbol of racial hatred and torture, in his office.

Virginia can’t afford racial insensitivity because of its past, and because of its future. History: Virginia’s past economy was built on slavery, and Virginia was a haven for segregation, closing schools rather than allow integration even into the early '60s. Future: Virginia is an increasingly diverse state, and its future economic and cultural development depends on embracing that diversity.

Now, if one uses a link one typically does not print the whole shebang...but what I found interesting is the Frank Wolf endorsement is completely pro Wolf, full of what he has accomplished and what he can do in the future. The Webb endorsement is half about why vote for Webb and half why one should not vote for Allen.

It boggles the mind...six months ago George Allen was in the tall cotton on a relatively short list of folks who could be the next President of the USA-now he is in the weeds with a great deal of uncertainty about his future.

Color Me Surprised...

2006-10-25T07:39:00.000-04:00

In a move I never saw coming, the Washington Post today endorsedBob Ehrlich for reelection as Governor of Maryland.

Now I need to clean up the coffee I spilled when I read the endorsement...

Turnabout...

2006-10-24T09:53:00.000-04:00

During my coffee break meanderings I found a series of August 2006 postings to the Carpetbagger blog with a discussion of whether Joe Lieberman would caucus with the Democrats if he were elected as an independent.

What I found interesting was the vehemence with which these folks denounced Lieberman, how he is a conservative lapdog, and how he would caucus with whichever party made him the best deal. Just reading the posts made the paint on my office walls curl up.

I cannot but wonder how these same posters reacted five years ago when Jim Jeffords announced he was becoming an Independent...and leaving the GOP to caucus with the Democrats-which just happened to be enough tilt to move the Dems into the majority in the Senate and give Jeffords better committee assignments.

Same question, different reactions...

I guess in politics the some issues occur repeatedly and the certain responses are almost reflexively produced. Who says them is just a question of whose ox is getting gored.

Did You Hear the One about the Mason-Dixon Poll?

2006-10-23T21:49:00.000-04:00

At 2000 hours today the latest Mason Dixon poll dropped with Allen at 47% and Webb at 43%.

I will tell you I don't know what to make of the results. I did not think there would be so many undecideds left at this point.

At the high view level, it is obviously better to be ahead than behind.

If you do a quick cycle around the blogosphere, you see a couple of things.

Allen supporters are saying this poll shows Webb is stuck, and that despite all the muck thrown at Allen there has been no great movement by Webb.

Webb backers are saying that if an incumbent has not cleared 50% this late in an election, then he is in deep kimche.

I am not persuaded either way, and I keep coming back to two things:

(A) The poll showed 2% going to independent candidate Gail Parker, which means that Webb only has 8% to play with from 4% down...that cannot be the preferred position to be in.

(B) There is a continual refrain going about that everyone knows that the undecided voters will break to the challenger at the end of an election. Generally, I would say that is true.

However, I can tell you one time it didn't happen. When? 1994 Where? Virginia. Ollie North led Chuck Robb going into the late days of that election, and the undecideds broke back toward Senator Robb.

So, don't say it cannot happen, because it can and has.

This is still a GOTV campaign. Gird your loins and unleash the hounds!

Club for Growth President's Bad Timing Undermines Clout

2006-10-23T21:12:00.000-04:00

Today Phillip Rodokanakis of the Virginia Club for Growth attacked Congressman Frank Wolf in a piece at Bacons Rebellion. After reading his piece I came away thinking he and his group has a mistaken idea about creating political leverage, and are doomed to life on the political periphery instead of having the clout their libertarian issues should give them.

Mr. Rodokanakis waited until two weeks before the election to take issue with Mr. Wolf as a conservative force. I will leave aside the value of choosing five votes out of the thousands cast over twenty six years in Congress as a viable method of attacking someone's conservative credentials. Two things struck me about the post.

Mr. Rodokanakis is so determined to make headlines he allows himself to be hoodwinked

I cannot speak to all the five issues Rodokanakis is upset about. However, I am familiar with the earmarks vote, which was on a bill that would have attached patrons names to spending bills. Frank Wolf crossed party lines to join the vast majority of Democrats voting against the bill.

Why? Because the bill was a fig leaf that did not address real reform.

This bill was not a law, but a rule that applies only to this Congress and at a point when there would be few appropriations bills sent to the floor. It applies only to appropriations bills and not to revenue bills or floor amendments to appropriation or revenue bills. It was designed solely to give the GOP political cover going into this election, and has no long term impact or value as a way to reform lobbying.

One would think Mr. R would applaud a Congressman who had the political courage to vote against such a bill...instead, he is shortsighted enough to criticize him for short term political points.

Mr. Rodokanakis has not learned about political timing

In his piece Mr. R suggests that if conservatives (i.e., the Club for Growth) don't vote for Wolf in 11/2006 he might pay more attention to them in the next congress. However, bad timing ensures the opposite will happen.

The time to say this was in June, not in October. No self respecting candidate will negotiate with a gun to their head. Late campaign threats create resentment, not compliance. What is more likely is that Wolf will look at the exceptional lack of success of the Club for Growth candidates in last years General Assembly elections, and move on with his campaign plan.

In addition, Mr. R's timing and threat is coming late in an election where by all counts the GOP is going to take a hit. No one will be surpised if GOP candidates totals are down. So, if Mr. Wolf wins with a lower total than he had in 2004, will it be attributed to the hands off attitude suggested by Mr. Rodakanakis or will it be attributed to general discontent with the GOP?

I tend to think it will be the latter.

Twas the time for Mr. Rodakanakis to say that although he had disagreements with Mr. Wolf, they paled in comparison to the vast differences he had with the Democratic nominee. Mr. R should have urged all conservatives to be sure to turn out and vote for Frank Wolf. Then, if the disagreements still exist into the next session of congress, then Mr. R comes out early for a primary opponent.

Mr. Rodakanakis could have scored points by taking the long view both on legislation and on political timing. Instead, he chooses a short term satisfaction that will not benefit him, his group, and relegates them instead to the cold periphery of the political arena, among those who prefer making noise instead of making progress.

Democratic HQ now the Land of Lincoln

2006-10-23T09:13:00.000-04:00

For the longest time it seemed that the Democratic Party in the Blue States and the way it is pictured settled either in NYC (Hillary) or SF (Pelosi).

However, at this moment the spotlight is focused on Illinois.

Why?

Consider the recent spate of articles on the presidential prospects of Barack Obama (D-IL), elected in 2004 and apparently on the verge of a candidacy in 2008. I don't know the affect of such a thing, but this could create a Democratic brawl if Hillary Clinton decides to gun for the nomination.

Consider also the attention being given to Rahm Emanuel, Congressman from the City of the Big Shoulders, former Clintonista, and current Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Emanuel is the driving force behind the Democratic surge to take control of the House of Representatives next month.

Students of the Senate know the current wisdom is that a presidential campaign from the Senate must be launched early in one's career so as not to be weighed down by several terms worth of procedural votes. Students of House know that a stellar performance as chairman of either party's campaign committee typically paves the way to bigger things.

I have to wonder, though, with two such large personalities, two men so determined to succeed, what is the likelihood of an Obama-Emanuel struggle down the road? Especially if Obama runs for the Democratic nomination? Will Emanuel back the hometown hero, especially as it might open a Senate seat he could run for? Will Emanuel back the old time heroine, and follow the Clinton's siren call?

We shall seeeeee!

Word of the Day: Bloviate

2006-10-22T19:11:00.000-04:00

A discussion broke out on NLS today as to whether bloviate is a word. The blogger generally known as "T" says it isn't a word since he/she cannot find it in Webster's, while teacherken offers a definition found at Merriam Webster online.

Well, "T", the overwhelming weight of evidence indicates it is a word.

The American Heritage Dictionary via Bartleby's also offers a definition; Dictionary.com checks in with a similar take, and onelook.com finds these and ten other online dictionaries/thesaurus that offer definitions.

In fact, it is a word that perhaps offers the ultimate definition of what most folks do on the blogs. The Random House Word of the Day offers a lengthy description of the history of the word. Wes Pruden at the Washington Times uses it frequently. While it had been on the books since 1909, H.L. Mencken gave it significant circulation as using it to describe the oration of Warren G. Harding, putting the word in that special set of political terms we got from the Roaring Twenties, including "booboisie" and "normalcy".

But take it from one who has used the word regularly-be careful when you use it. To the untrained ear, "bloviate" sounds less like a description of boastful oratory and more like some physical condition that one would not wish on one's worst enemy...

Esquire Endorsements-Only Effective GOP Need Apply

2006-10-21T10:01:00.000-04:00

Yesterday I received my November 2006 issue of Esquire magazine, and read the article where the magazine endorses in every congressional race this year. In Virginia they picked (page 207):

Senate (*incumbent)/[Unopposed]=no major party opposition

James Webb (D)

House (*incumbent)/[Unopposed]=no major party opposition
1-Jo Ann Davis* (R)
2-Phil Kellam (D)
3-Bobby Scott* (D) [Unopposed]
4-Randy Forbes* (R), Although unopposed, Esquire urged voting for write-in candidates
5-Al Weed (D)
6-Bob Goodlatte* (R) [Unopposed]
7-Jim Nachman (D)
8-Tom O'Donohue (R)
9-Rich Boucher* (D)
10-Frank Wolf* (R)
11-Tom Davis* (R)

There seem to be three types of endorsements.

The alternative has to be better than the incumbent: Esquire came out against various candidates of both parties due to incumbent challenges ranging from ethics to Iraq. Only Kellam in Va 2 received anything near a positive endorsement over an incumbent.

The incumbent reeks: Esquire endorsed anyone over Randy Forbes dues to his "ignorant views"

Keep these folks, because they rock!: Esquire endorsements of J. Davis, Scott, Boucher, T. Davis, and Wolf were all based in positive assessments of what they have accomplished as opposed to the weaknesses of their opponents. Those who have read the endorsements sugggest that the strongest of the Virginia House endorsements went to Frank Wolf in Va-10:

"Frank Wolf is an exemplary representative: genuinely anti-pork, a committed defender of humanrights, and thoughtful-rather than loud-on security issues."

With and endorsement like that, perhaps Esquire would be willing to take on the PR responsibilities for the Wolf campaign...

Words I Never Thought I Would Say...

2006-10-21T09:11:00.000-04:00

My Bridgewater College Eagles chances of winning an automatic bid to the NCAA D3 football playoffs is dependent on the preppy boys at Washington and Lee beating the Guilford Quakers later today.

So, and may the good Lord understand I would only do this in the most dire circumstances, I say:

GO GENERALS! BEAT GUILFORD!

Ugh. It's for a good cause, but still...

What Constitutes a Stealth Campaign?

2006-10-21T08:59:00.000-04:00

Using the Frank Wolf-Judy Feder campaign as a starting point, the Richmond War Room has emerged from the mineshaft and a self described bout of naked treadmill exercise to spark a discussion about what makes for a good campaign. Not Buck Turgidson asks the question:

What makes a good campaign? Is it possible to run a good campaign without a lot of people seeing it, other than signs and direct mail?

Said another way, does a campaign have to make a lot of noise to sway voters, or can it be done one football game, parade, or civic club at a time?

Given that I was stoked on caffeine yesterday AM, I kicked things off with the following (in part, and to the general topic):

Campaigns are a lot like cars. I have owned flashy cars that attracted attention. They also broke down and spent more time off the road than carrying me places. I also once owned a Chevy Nova that attracted derision for its unstylishness, but was dependable and carried me around successfully for years. Which was better to have for the purpose of transportation?

I think saying a campaign is running under the radar is a highly subjective analysis. When that analysis is done mainly through second and third hand analysis-as happens so often in the blogs-it becomes even more tenuous.

I think good campaigns do win voters one event at a time. It's a combination of marathon and relay race, with the candidate being handed from one voter to the next over a period of months and years. If done successfully, then the winner is left with a significant foundation for the next go round. Voters react not only to what they see personally, but what their neighbors say, and what their co workers say. They react to a chance to speak with the candidate, to see the candidate in action, and to get information from a non-campaign source. There is a churn effect from that, just as there is a churn effect when a candidate does something great or horrendous and that act is publicized.

Frankly, I don't see how a campaign can win without doing all these things. That makes them less under the radar than critical and necessary, which means you know the campaigns are doing it even if you don't see it yourself.

The problem with todays campaigns is we get stoked about the highly visible stuff. Cool, but that is the easy stuff to see. However, consider how many times after an election do we read of how so-and-so visited x number of voters and knocked on this many doors, and this was the key to victory?

Over on my...I have noted many times the fundamental value of the Lincoln 4-Step (ID potential voters, ID favorables, persuage undecideds, get your favorables to the polls). Lincoln laid this out in a letter when he ran for Congress in the 1840's, and it still hold true today...everything else is just a tool that accomplishes one of these goals.

Why quote myself? Because I can, and the campaign to automobile analogy is too good not use use on my own blog. ;-)

Head to the mineshaft and join the discussion!

Devastating Commentary

2006-10-21T08:53:00.000-04:00

Former Governor and Richmond Mayor Douglas Wilder used an interview with the Washington Times to scold James Webb for his failure to make clear to Virginia voters what he stands for.

An interesting messanger, and an even more interesting message. It would not seem necessary to have to give a candidate such advice.

Wilder went on to suggest that "Mr. Webb still trails Republican Sen. George Allen, in part, because he has failed to articulate a message beyond opposing Mr. Allen and President Bush."

More Virginia Endorsements

2006-10-21T08:31:00.000-04:00

Since we last touched on the subject, more Northern Virginia endorsements have been made.

Last week, the Washington Post endorsedJim Webb and the Washington Times endorsed George Allen.

Yesterday, the Washington Times endorsed Frank Wolf. This was in addition to their earlier editorial on his bright record of defending human rights.

As noted in an earlier post, Mr. Wolf has also been endorsed by the Washington Post and the Loudoun Easterner

The Easterner offers a most practical advice for the 10th district. After singing Frank Wolf's praises for what he has done for the 10th district, the article notes that "even if Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, Frank Wolf will remain more influential on our behalf here in the 10th District than Feder could be" due to his experience and seniority.

Candidate Domain Names and a Hypothetical Question

2006-10-20T09:05:00.000-04:00

Kenton Ngo posts on a GOP candidate who neglected to purchase a simple domain name, and whose opponent purchased it and now uses it as an attack site...or is that oppo information opportunity site? ;-)

Kenton urges candidates to be sure to register all the various sites that could be used to support a candidate to avoid this kind of thing.

Following Kenton's line of thinking, I offer a hypothetical question to see what sites a candidate should look to get.

I decide to run for Congress. What domain names should Bwana register for? Obvious ideas would be things like:

Bwana4Congress
BwanaforCongress
Congress4Bwana
CongressforBwana
BwanaCongress
BwanainCongress
Bwanawillgivefreekrispykremedonutstoallvotersifelected

So, beyond the really obvious ones, and using Bwana as the candidate, what domain names should a candidate register for to either support his/her candidacy, remove it from use by the opposition, or both?

We won't worry about whether they are .com/.net/ etc...and let's just assume that any suggestion that includes physiologically impossible acts will not pass the moderation process.

So, have at it!

Signage: I'm not feeling the Love in the 50th, and the Return of Burma Shave

2006-10-19T08:12:00.000-04:00

I am a Manassas boy by birth, and my father still lives there, so I follow politics in Prince William County with some interest...which leads me to ask what is the story in the 50th?

Now the in the know politico is aware there is a special election on tap to select a new delegate for Virginia House District 50 following the death of long time Delegate Harry Parrish. This district is traditionally conservative, and has been reliably GOP, and prior to that Byrd Democrat, and prior to that Martin Machine, all the way back to the Age of Pericles.

I wonder about that now...

Yesterday I was down to Manassas to see my father and help him run some errands. The trip took us all over town. I saw plenty of Wolf signs and Allen signs, a couple of Webb signs, and a couple of Rishell signs, and no Feder signs.

What struck me was the dearth of Jackson Miller signs.

Miller is a city councilman and the GOP nominee. He is opposed by Democrat Jeanette Rishell. I expected to see a lot more signage for Miller as I trawled around town, but there were far fewer than I expected.

You may think "maybe you missed them." This is not an unreasonable sentiment. However, it would be easier to miss the Rishell signs. They are of the same cookie cutter color palette of white lettering on blue background as you see with Allen, Webb, Davis, and Hurst.

Miller, on the other other hand, has something a little more vibrant:

This is a sign that you can easily pick out while driving by, and remember after seeing it...or notice when you don't see a lot of them.

I don't pretend to know if this is indicative of anything...for all I know, there is a massive sign campaign set for Saturday that will turn the whole of the 50th district into a running Miller sign. I do know that I expected to see more signs. As my old pal Carman might say, this should be a "state your presence with author-t-tay" type of race, where the GOP pushes Miller through to a huge win and locks down this seat for a decade.

We shall see...

On a different sign front, on a detour on my way home to spend a B&N birthday gift card, I see the old Burma Shave sign technique is being rolled out by the Democrats.

For those who don't remember, Burma Shave was a shaving cream that to advertise would post a series of small signs that displayed a small rhyme then the words Burma Shave!. They went into use in 1925, and by 1963 had been displaced by television and billboards. Examples can be seen here.

The Democrats have signs up in the median of Va. 50 between I-66 and the next traffic light heading west (Fair Lakes Drive? Promenade?), using the same technique:

Sign #1-Had Enough
Sign #2-Republican Corruption?
Sign #3-Vote Democratic!

If not the exact words, fairly close to the original. If the signs had the Miller Red color scheme, I probably would have seen them better and remembered them better...but that is a supposition, because I didn't see enough of the Miller signs in Manassas to really test the color scheme.

I Weep for Jimmy Buffett, and yet I Hope...

2006-10-18T22:27:00.000-04:00

Today as I drove back from Manassas (a/k/a The social and cultural mecca of the east coast) after seeing my father, I popped the new Jimmy Buffett CD into the car player, and as the music began to wash over me I had one sudden, compelling, overwhelming thought...

What in the hell happened to this man?

Understand, I grew up in a musical household. Mom got me listening to the Beatles, and I developed an eclectic taste that had a toe in every pond from Southern Rock to Pop Rock to R&B, and I had a wide variety of LP's ranging from Jim Croce to Lynyrd Skynyrd to Marvin Gaye and Eddie Kendricks...and of course Jimmy Buffett.

Jimmy Buffett was not only talented and unique, he was the only one of my favorites who surved into my thirties.

Jeff Grady got me listening to him one day in 1975, and I was hooked from the first time I heard the lyrics to "The Great Filling Station Holdup":

We got fifteen dollars and a can of STP
A big ol' jar of cashew nuts and a Japanese TV
Feelin' we had pulled the biggest heist of our career
We're wanted men, we'll strike again
But first let's have a beer

For years I caught every concert I could...I had a drunken pal heave on me at a Kings Dominion concert, and then again at Merriwether Post. I saw Buffett in Nashville, Jacksonville, Pennsylvania, and time and again in Virginia.

Then around 1985, after "Last Mango in Paris", he seemed to focus more on his various business ventures and less on his music. Maybe as he worked out the strife of his younger days and became more content with life, and it served to bank fire he had. Buffett did not just write songs, but stories about good people and bad times and wild moments and faraway places...now it is all almost interchangeable. Now he has maybe one memorable song per disc...and days like today I find it unbearably disappointing.

But there is hope...

There is hope that one day he will come back, and bring back the mojo of his younger days. I shall never give up the wait, because anyone who can turn out songs and lyrics like that, well...you just can't give up hope.

Death of an Unpopular Poet (Jimmy Buffett-1973)

I once knew a poet
Who lived before his time
He and his dog Spooner
Would listen while he'd rhyme
Words to make ya happy
Words to make you cry
Then one day the poet suddenly did die

But he left behind a closet
Filled with verse and rhyme
And through some strange transaction
One was printed in the Times
And everybody's searchin'
For the king of undergound
Well they found him down in Florida
With a tombstone for a crown

Everybody knows a line
From his book that cost four ninety-nine
I wonder if he knows he's doin'
Quite this fine

'Cause his books are all best sellers
And his poems were turned to song
Had his brother on a talk show
Though they never got along
And now he's called immortal
Yes he's even taught in school
They say he used his talents
A most proficient tool

But he left all of his royalties
To Spooner his ol' hound
Growin' old on steak and bacon
In a doghouse ten feet 'round
And everybody wonders
Did he really lose his mind
No he was just a poet who lived before his time
He was just a poet who lived before his time

Why do I wait? Because I believe, and because I believe I still hope...

Wolf-Feder Debate follow up: Loudoun Easterner endorses Wolf

2006-10-18T13:48:00.000-04:00

As a follow up to the debate posting, I would note that in today's edition the Loudoun Easterner endorsed Frank Wolf for reelection.

Wolf v. Feder-Field Reports

2006-10-18T11:28:00.000-04:00

Republican Congressman Frank Wolf and Democratic challenger Judy Feder went at it last night in a debate at the Dulles Hyatt. They were joined by Libertarian party candidate Wilbur Wood and Independent candidate Neeraj Nigam.

All questions were addressed to and answered by each candidate, with a rotation amoung the candidates as to who answered each question first. Every candidate apparently had one rebuttal opportunity they could use at a moment of their choosing.

There are a variety of sources to check in with...there are MSM reports from the Washington Post and the Northern Virgina Daily. News Channel 8 will be replaying the debate in the days ahead.

For a purely partisan take on the debate, hop over to RK, where a claim is made for a Feder knockout, as well as a suggestion that Mr. Wolf has Tourette's Syndrome...glad to see the use of ad hominem attacks has not gone out of style.

Both BVBL.net and Richmond War Room also offer reports that challenge the RK report.

High Points (as garnered from other postings):

Mrs. Feder repeatedly challenged Congressman Wolf on Iraq and the Wolf Commission, and Congressman Wolf noted that (correctly, to my knowledge) that at present this is seen in most corners as presenting the best way to create an orderly disengagemenet from Iraq, without regard to party concern. Mrs. Feder replied to the affect "Isn't that what Congress is supposed to be doing anyway?"

Mrs. Feder attacked Congressman Wolf over the Mark Foley matter, and after Wolf noted no one had ever challenged his ethics Mr. Wood chided Mrs. Feder for hypocrisy, noting that the scandals in Congress have been going on for generations under both Democratic and Republican majorities.

After stating that she agreed with President Bush's Immigration plan, Mrs. Feder learned that she had mischaracterized Congressman Wolf on the matter-he is not in favor of the plan, as it does not do enough to guard our borders.

Congressman Wolf produced a letter from a constituent who voiced her praise for the current senior citizen prescription plan and her concerns that Mrs. Feder wanted to end a program that had worked well for her. (Bwana disclaimer-my father is up there in years, uses the federal plan, and has considered a marvel and a real money saver)

The Feder partisans have claimed it a clear win, and the Wolf partisans will certainly claim a KO for the Congressman.

WaPo scores a Hat Trick for Webb Candidacy!

2006-10-18T08:43:00.000-04:00

Today I tip my hat to the Washington Post.

We all know they are for Webb, and today they finally dropped any pretense of being objective in its coverage of the Senate race, as they were able to put three different pro-Webb pieces in today's paper.

But the amazing and applaudable thing is their creativity...they managed to drop the articles into three different sections!

There was a pro-Webb article in the Style section, another pro-Webb piece in the Metro section, and finally an Editorial endorsement in the A-section.

As I said before, the real financial picture of this campaign will not be truly accurate until the Webb campaign has to report some kind of in-kind contribution from the WaPo for all its coverage of his campaign.

RK diaries, Hurst Miss Point

2006-10-17T08:50:00.000-04:00

The GOP has one amazing ally in this election campaign-the missed and mixed messages the Democrats are putting out.

Zipping around the blogosphere and MSM a couple of items came to my attention...

Virginia 10-Comparing Apples and Oranges

Some of the folks at RK are not happy the Washington Post gave a strong endorsement to Frank Wolf. One of the RK diarists wrote a sample letter to the editor to be used to complain about the endorsement.

KCinDC took issue with the praise for Wolf's human rights work as he voted for the Military Commissions Act, saying:

Seven House Republicans chose to break with the president and their party and oppose this shameful legislation because they cared about human rights and the principles the United States stands for. Rep. Wolf was not among them. What does that say about his commitment to human rights?

There is no doubt that we want a government that always conducts itself in a manner consistent with the high standards we demand from other countries. But the starving masses of Darfur, the victims of the conflict diamond regions, the oppressed of Nepal, and a score of other groups who suffer from government repression or ecological calamity are a lot different than those who pick up weapons, cry "jihad", and go out to kill US soldiers in the name of a theological movement that aspires to wipe us from the face of the earth.

KCinDC wonders what is Frank Wolf's commitment to human rights?

It would seem that Frank Wolf is much more concerned about people who are suffering due to oppression and through no fault of their own and cannot help themselves as opposed to people who are trying to kill US citizens.

I don't see where this type message is going to win more voters to the Democratic candidate.

Virginia 11-Are all these folks on the same team?

A quck survey of the Democratic or left leaning blogs in Virgina make it sound like Andrew Hurst will win a Truman-Dewey type upset victory over Tom Davis come election day. Then you read Andrew Hurst's comments in today's WaPo, and you have to wonder if he hasn't already given up the ghost.

Marc Fischer has his column in todays WaPo titled "Against Tom Davis, the Good Fight Seems Futile", and includes several quotes from Andrew Hurst.

Hurst is clearly feisty yet overwhelmed. First he says:

His [Davis] popularity is 70 percent in the district," says Hurst. "I was at a Democratic club at a huge seniors complex, and I had to convince a woman to stop voting for Tom Davis -- in a Democratic club!"

Later, Hurst laments those who will vote for Jim Webb and for Tom Davis:

"Those voters really don't want to hear from me," Hurst says with a grimace. "They've already settled this in their minds".

It looks like someone forgot to tell Mr. Hurst he has to be careful what he says to the press...

First Partisan Redistricting was in Virginia

2006-10-16T07:31:00.000-04:00

All those interested in politics are familiar with the term "gerrymander", or the reapprotionment of electoral districts to reach a partisan advantage. Most of us (which is another way of saying your truly) thought the first instance of this was when Governor Elbridge Gerry drew a particular district in Massachusetts to favor his party. The papers initially said the district looked like a salamander, then reconsidered to say it looked like a gerrymander (rim shot, please!).

Well, it seems Elbridge Gerry learned from Patrick Henry.

I spent much of this weekend reading the new book by Richard Labunski titled James Madison and the Struggle for the Bill of Rights

It is a marvelous recounting of the struggles Madison endured-once he effectively wrote the Constitution-to shepherd it to passage, all the while fighting a running political battle with Patrick Henry.

For those who have forgotten their civics, after winning independence the USA was governed for six years by the Articles of Confederation. In 1788 a committee tasked with overhauling the Articles actually threw them out and recommended approval and implementation of a new governing document, the Constitution of the United States.

The process for ratification was thus-the Constitution had to be approved for ratification by the Confederation Congress and sent to the states, where the legislature would approved a ratifying convention. Counties would elect and send delegates to said convention, which would vote up or down on a majority vote. The ratified document would go back to the state legislature for approval, and then-if approved by 2/3 of the states-go to the new US Congress for implementation.

The absence of specific protections brought out a formidable list of foes in Virginia. Opponents in Virginia included Patrick Henry, George Mason, Richard Henry Lee, and William Grayson (the latter two the first US Senators from Virginia). Virginia, then comprised by what is now Va, WVa, and Ky, was a critical link in creating the new constitutional government. Virginia ratified only after a lengthy debate by the narrow margin of 89-79.

This is where it gets political.

Patrick Henry was in the state legislature, and in charge of drawing the new congressional districts. He did not like the constitution, thinkind it centralized too much power and would lead to a central government with monarchical powers. He led the Anit Federalist forces in trying to stop it, and believing that the amendments favored could best be put into effect if his chief constitutional opponent was not in the First Congress, he drew districts so as to not only put Madison in the middle of a district that was overwhelmingly Anti-Federalist, but drew the district so that Madison would have to run against James Monroe.

Madison accepted the challenge, ran a spirited campaign (something that was alien to his nature), and defeated Monroe spoiling Henry's plan...and continuing a political career that led first to the House of Representatives, then the Senate, then Secretary of State for Thomas Jefferson, and then election as the Fourth President of the US...and it all started with the first partisan redistricting in our nations history.

However, in the end it all worked out OK. Henry is remembered more as an orator and man of conscience rather than a failed politico, and Monroe ultimately succeeded Madison as President.

Meanwhile, back in the 11th, what about Hurst?

2006-10-16T00:04:00.000-04:00

It is late and I am having trouble sleeping, so I thought I would share a little thought that came to mind the other day.

I speculated previously about what happens in the 11th in 2008, and now Mark Warner's move to not run in 2008 makes it even murkier-at least on the Democratic side. I think by 2008 it will be obvious that Warner will be running for Governor in 2009, which means that folks like Creigh Deeds and Leslie Byrne will be blocked from a potential run for governor in 2009.

This development may mean that Leslie Byrne might be more amenable to a run for congress in the 11th district, a seat she held in 1993-1995, even though it is common knowledge that Gerry Connolly wants to run for that seat.

And this doesn't cover the possibility of a Chap Peterson candidacy following a win over Jean Marie Devolites Davis in a state Senate campaign in 2007. Yes, I am changing my tune on that one.

So that's Gerry, Leslie, and possibly Chap! running for that spot.

So what happens to Andrew Hurst? How well does he have to do this year to get a shot in 2008?

Yes, I know the election is not over. He can still actually win. However, he is getting crushed by Tom Davis in fundraising (latest numbers show Rep. Tom Davis (R)- Raised $365,441 with $1,515,904 on hand; Andy Hurst (D)- Raised $118,145 with $74,342 on hand), has not made it onto television, and if signage is any indicator is woefully short of manpower in many areas of the 11th. Davis is running hard and not taking anything for granted.

So, short of winning, what does Bro Hurst have to do be on the ballot again in 2008? We know the 11th district democrats are not a sentimental bunch...they denied their 2004 nominee Ken Longmeyer a chance for a 2006 rematch when they selected Hurst.

So, if Hurst does not win, does he have any shot at a nomination in 2008?

What it Means...

2006-10-15T23:42:00.000-04:00

As you have heard by now, former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia will not be a candidate for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008.

Since I like to be in the In Crowd, let me offer my prediction as to what he will do.

1. Mark Warner will not be a candidate for public office in 2007. Thought I would start off easy.

2. Mark Warner will not be a candidate for public office in 2008, although he will take Secretary of Commerce if it is offered to him by a Democratic president-elect.

3. Mark Warner will be a candidate for Governor of Virginia in 2009, much to the chagrin of Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell.

Why?

Because the US Senate is a tomb for presidential aspirations...see my previous post about the Tomb of the Senate. Warner as Governor can be in control of his agenda and not get hamstrung down the road when a procedural Senate vote is spun into a substantive one.

Warner for Governor 2009...get those buttons ready!

Washington Post endorses Frank Wolf in Va 10

2006-10-14T10:45:00.000-04:00

In a move I half way did not expect, the Washington Post endorsed Republican Frank Wolf for reelection today:

Mr. Wolf 's Diligence
Our choice in Northern Virginia's 10th District
Saturday, October 14, 2006; Page A20

OVER THE YEARS we have had our disagreements with Rep. Frank R. Wolf , the Republican who has represented Northern Virginia's 10th District since 1981. But those have been outweighed by our respect for his undisputed diligence, candor, active legislative approach and passionate commitment to human rights in some of the world's darkest corners. Those qualities continue to make Mr. Wolf part of a diminishing breed in the House -- of legislators whose independent-mindedness and pragmatic problem-solving outweigh their partisanship. He deserves reelection this year against health-care expert Judy Feder, dean of Georgetown's Public Policy Institute.

In addition to his habitual attentiveness to an array of local issues in Northern Virginia -- congested roads, stressed transit systems and the rising threat of Latino gangs -- Mr. Wolf has made a particular mark in this latest congressional term by his constructive national role. It was chiefly at his prodding that Congress established a bipartisan commission on Iraq, led by former secretary of state James A. Baker III and former representative Lee H. Hamilton, that represents the best hope at this point of forging a national consensus on how to proceed in the war. In addition, Mr. Wolf proposed a big-picture commission to tackle the fiscal and budgetary issues that Congress has so conspicuously failed to address, including entitlement spending on Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare as well as the tax code. The object would be to devise a fiscally sustainable course for the nation and present it to Congress for an up-or-down vote.

Ms. Feder is a smart, credible candidate whose broad experience and deep knowledge of health-care policy have given her a prominent role in that national debate for years; she was a senior official in the Department of Health and Human Services during the Clinton administration. She makes a reasonable case that Mr. Wolf, by some of the party-line votes he has cast, is complicit in assorted policy failures of the Bush administration, particularly its reckless tax cuts.

But if Mr. Wolf has proved anything in 26 years in Congress, it is that he is more than a party-line Republican. His repeated visits to Iraq, Darfur, Afghanistan, Chechnya and other unlovely hot spots reflect his zeal for human rights. For that he has earned respect on both sides of Capitol Hill's partisan divide and a 14th term in Congress.

Surprise #1...I thought the WaPo would go against Mr. wolf this year, especially given what happened with Connie Morella.

For those with short memories, Connie Morella was a moderate Republican Congresswoman from Maryland who was redistricted into a much more democratic district after the 2000 census. Although the WaPo had generally endorsed Morella, when her prospects were not as rosy in 2002 the WaPo came out strong for her opponent Chris Van Hollen. Van Hollen defeated Morella.

Frank Wolf is facing a game opponent in Judy Feder who has been able to bring to bear the collective resources of the Democratic Health care establishment and the Clintonistas against Mr. Wolf and is running a tough campaign. Given that Mr. Wolf is more conservative than former Maryland Representative Connie Morella, I thought that this would be the year the WaPo headed for the door.

Surprise #2...I thought if the WaPo did endorse Frank Wolf, it would be tepid. Instead, they came out with about as strong an endorsement as they could.

One thing is for sure...

If the WaPo-hardly a bastion of affection for GOP candidates-comes out this strong for a GOP candidate, and with the record described in this editorial, it is hard to believe that the voters of the 10th district would not return him for a 14th term.

Friday Miscellania, Part Deux

2006-10-13T19:47:00.000-04:00

Sometimes you catch really good writing on television...

I watched Six Degrees last night, and caught this bit of inspired dialogue between Christine and Steve, estranged parents of an adolescent boy, who it seems has an interest in baseball:

Christine: "Can I ask you a question?"
Steve: "Sure..Anything"
Christine: "How important is it for a kid to learn to hit a curveball?"
Steve: Oh, my god...that is the gateway skill to all that is decent and manly. If you can hit a curve, you'll never leave the toilet seat up, and you'll always remember anniversary's".

Well Said!

Peggy Noonan Rocks!

2006-10-13T16:09:00.000-04:00

After seeing so many instances the last ten days of different groups in our society shout down or seeking to silence others, I was gathering my thoughts to post on the matter until I had my weekly fill of Peggy Noonan, who had already written on the matter.

Once again, I find myself wishing I wrote as well as Peggy Noonan-because she says it all, and she says it with style...

Phil Kellam Phoolishness

2006-10-13T12:30:00.000-04:00

There are several lens through which I view the 2006 elections. One of them is a certainty that that the biggest risk for GOP candidates is not of GOP voters going Democrat but of GOP voters not voting at all (something I have written of in previous entries).

Apparently my thoughts on the subject are not shared by Virginia Democrats in the second district of Virginia

Democratic congressional candidate Phil Kellam has unleashed an advertisement that attacks GOP incumbent Thelma Drake (Va 2) for her opposition to stem cell research. The advertisement is made by a democratic advocacy group, and has three actors (young man, 30-ish woman, little girl) stating they will face situations they will face down the road (traffic accident, alzheimer, cancer) where stem cell research could provide medical options that would save them, closing with the question "who gave Thelma Drake the right to decide who lives and who dies?"

When this election is over, and Mr. Kellam has lost to Mrs. Drake after a surprisingly large turnout among conservative voters, this advertisement will rank right behind "macaca" as the stupidest move of the campaign.

Why? Because this is waving a red flag to evangelicals and social conservatives to come out and vote. In an atmosphere that is poisonous for GOP candidates, when there are a bazillion articles in the MSM, online, and in the blogosphere detailing voter base unhappiness with GOP candidates, why do anything to encourage them? Why fire up the other guys base?

The fact that the matter is presented in such a visceral manner does not help...except the length of the spot diminshes the impact.

Advantage, GOP

Friday Miscellania...

2006-10-13T12:26:00.000-04:00

...sees Bwana winning a Commonwealth Conservative caption contest.

Happy happy joy joy!

Having achieved such halcyon heights, I can get back to learning how to grill the perfect steak, bake the perfect cake, and winning the World Championship of Public Speaking.

The Bwana Family WMD

2006-10-12T11:19:00.000-04:00

I have gotten a ping or two about the Bwana Family WMD, and are they really as destructive as I claim?

Answer: Yes. However, given that they are go darn cute no on believes me.

As you can see, they are biological proof positive that I married up...

David Broder and Rose Colored Glasses

2006-10-12T10:33:00.000-04:00

David Broder is about half-way wrong this AM...and more's the pity.

I am a long time David Broder fan. I have a worn copy of The Boys on the Bus, written about the correspondents who covered the 1972 US presidential campaign, and even then Broder was one of the most highly regarded political journalists out there. His stature has only increased over time.

But now and then he gets it wrong...and in his piece today in the Washington Post he is wearing rose colored glasses.

Mr. Broder reviews the numerous surveys and other indicators that the electorate is tired of the President Bush, the GOP majority in congress, and their policies. He suggests that candidates of all stripes have seen voters who are "...telling them that the public is tired of the partisan bickering, tired of the gridlock and eager to elect people who will focus on the real problems and work together to find solutions".

Mr. Broder then asks if the electorate will "pull the trigger" and elect a democratic congress, because:

"If that lesson is reinforced by the election results, Washington will change. Congress will be run by people who talk with each other, across party lines."

Huh? Who is he kidding?

There is bad blood in Washington, and one election will not change things. Both parties have contributed, no one's hands are clean.

Short of a capital crime or financial misdeeds, the GOP and Democrats will decry any given behavior if it is done by one of the opposition but defend or rationalize if it is done by one of their own. Campaigns are won by finding wedge issues. We have Red and Blue America in no small part because it is more economical to win elections by carpet bombing segments of the country rather than trying to build a broad based coalition.

Why try to build a Coalition of the Willing that will get you 350 electoral votes when you can run with a Coalition of the Believers and win with 270?

This poisoned atmosphere is nothing new, and manifests itself inside and outside DC. Few can forget the unfortunate conduct at the Paul Wellstone memorial service in 2002 that drove GOP colleagues of Mr. Wellstone's from the service and helped drive his seat into the Congressional column. We see it in Northern Virginia, where Jim Moran (D/Va 8) used to work with his GOP colleagues for the good of the region and would not campaign against them...now he is in the front rank trying to oust these men who have helped him by not campaigning against him...and I will not even begin to address partisan blogs.

One idea comes from Not Buck at the Richmond War Room. NBT suggests that what we need is a big old blowout landslide where one side crushes the other and there is no credible room for allegations of hanging chads, voter intimidation, faulty electronic voting, and all the losers locker room comments that are the rage these days in political circles.

Well, it will take more than that. It is going to take a change in attitude and a change in political tactics before Mr. Broder's prediction reaches to fruition.

It will take a willingness to choose decency over deceit, to opt for dialogue rather than division, and conscientious hewing to a political model and method that looks to the Book of Isaiah ("Come, let us reason together") and not the Book of Conan the Barbarian ("The Best things in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women...")

And until that happens, then Mr. Broder's vision of a capital where people talk across the partisan aisle will be just that...a vision. It may even be a fantasy, a penumbra, a dream...but it will never be reality.

My Son Qualifies to be a WaPo Reporter

2006-10-12T07:15:00.000-04:00

I am a proud father.

Why?

Because last night my seven year old son conclusively demonstrated he already has the skills in logic and analysis that will qualify him to write for the Washington Post.

She Who Must be Obeyed had class last night, so when I got home from work I commenced to fixing supper. WMD #1 asks if he can go outside and play after he finished eating. I said yes. When supper was completed and the table cleared, he ran downstairs to finish something.

An hour and a half later, just about bathtime-and pitch black outside- he came back up and asked if he could play outside. I said no, citing the time and the lack of light outside. His reply-"you promised!" I noted that he chose to play in the basement and that if he couldn't play outside, it was the result of his decisions.

Reply-"No, It's your fault!"...and a really amusing bedtime display followed.

Imagine my surprise this AM when I see Michael Shears of the WaPo using the same logic to demean the Allen campaign. His article takes the Allen campaign to task for limiting direct access to the candidate, and closes his article with the observation:

Now, though, it seems that Allen has decided that a Rose Garden strategy -- in which he hunkers down and avoids tough questions for the rest of the race -- may be the only way to ensure that he returns to Capitol Hill.

It may work. And the media's griping about it certainly won't elicit sympathy from the public, which tends to dislike reporters about as much it does tax collectors.

But the real victim could be voters, who will have to make up their minds about whom to vote for on Nov. 7 based almost exclusively on prepackaged, scripted comments from Allen.

That's a shame.

Michael Shears comments score high on the hypocrisy meter, and display the same logic as WMD #1 did last night.

By their Ombudsman's own assessment, the WaPo piled on during the "macaca" controversy. The author of the bulk of the pieces? Michael Shear. The WaPo Ombudsman also refused to say the paper would not continue to pile on, as Shear proved by his scintillating piece on George Allen's wardrobe and how it might be a big shtick to get votes, a piece that used as it's only source the Webb campaign manager.

The Washington Post and its staff has to this point been a leader player in making the Virginia senate election a campaign about personalities and not issues. Given their well known antipathy to George Allen, one can only assume that it knows that in an election based on record and accomplishment that Webb loses. I am half way convinced that a true picture of the campaign finances of this election is impossible until the Webb campaign begins listing in-kind contributions from the WaPo as a result of these articles.

Having created the current atmosphere of "gotcha" questions and articles, Shear does not get to bitch about the Allen accessibility policies. To use the legal jargon, he should be estopped from doing so. He helped create the problem, so he is not allowed to moan and groan. His complaining makes about as much sense as my son's complaint about not being allowed to play outside.

But there is a bright side to this. I now see a bright and clear career path for WMD#1...that is, if that job with the VDOT demolition crews does not work out. After all, the VDOT crews wreak as much havoc as WaPo reporters, but with much greater societal gain as a result.

Al Groh is brilliantly blind

2006-10-11T06:33:00.000-04:00

In today's Washington Post sports section, Al Groh is goes on about how he knows more about fans than fans know about coaching. He says (in part):

"Let me put it to you this way," Groh said. "I fly on a lot of airplanes. Just because I fly on airplanes doesn't qualify me to be a pilot. I own stocks. Just because I own stocks doesn't mean I have any idea how and why my broker does things. I don't have any opinion on what the pilot should do, whether he should have flown at 35,000 feet, 15,000 feet. I don't have any opinion. I say, 'He's proven. He's got all the facts. He knows what he's doing. He knows a lot more about it than I do. So let him fly the plane.'

It is a pity that Coach Groh is so woefully uninformed about how his investments are handled. I guess that given the huge contract extension he got he probably feels he does not have cause for concern.

Nonetheless, even Coach Groh would concede that if said stockbroker or pilot was not doing the job, Groh would seek a replacement who was up to the job.

That being the case, no matter how much Coach Groh knows or thinks he knows about coaching, I trust he will understand completely when he is shown the door after this season.

Customer Satisfaction?

2006-10-10T09:34:00.000-04:00

I used to sell men's clothing in a high end shop, and learned customer service from the best salesman and harshest boss one could have. For year's I have been on the other end of the equation, doing technical purchasing, so I get to work the process from the opposite end.

It is of ongoing interest to me how the basic lessons of customer service we used at retail to please our customers and that we held our suppliers to are so often forgotten. I have long thought that customer service has gone the way of the dodo.

Apparently I am not alone in my thinging. See here for a great take on the current state of customer service.

Jim Webb is Listening to Me...sort of

2006-10-10T07:25:00.000-04:00

Candidates for political office have to put disclaimers on printed material, and offer oral disclaimers on television ad's. Recently the candidates themselves have begun delivering the disclaimers for televsion material.

I have long thought these folks were missing an opportunity, and Jim Webb has heard my thinking.

Most candidates finish their ad's with something like "My name is x, and I approved this ad". It struck me once that this close was too cold, and saying something substantive after their name could make for a better and more focused appeareance.

Jim Webb has done so...in his latest advertisement against George Allen he closes with [paraphrase to the best of my recollection] "I'm Jim Webb, and I approved this message because we need a leader in the Senate, not a follower".

Great idea, great use of television time...

Now only if Mr. Webb could muster the leadership strength he says he will use in the Senate to deal with his staffers with the same decisiveness that Ben Cardin has used in Maryland. When that happens, we will know he is really listening to me.

Shocking and Unexpected News...

2006-10-10T07:23:00.000-04:00

In a completely unexpected development...

Webb backers say Webb won the debate last night, and Allen supporters claim victory for Allen in last night's debate.

In other startling news, the sun came up this morning.

Forgotten Music, Governors, and Congressmen

2006-10-09T19:40:00.000-04:00

My oldest, a/k/a WMD#1, brought home a lovely gift from a classmate on friday that by saturday evening manifested itself as a major strain of vomitus majesticus that soon spread to all members of the family. Anyone who saw The Exorcist and the pea soup scenes has some idea of what my household has been like the last 48 hours. As I was the least affected, I have been running around dispensing ginger ale, comforting hugs, and doing lots of laundry.

However, every cloud has a silver lining. Yesterday I caught on MTV an hour long show on the making of "Goodbye Yellow Brick Road".

If you need me to explain what that is, then you are too young for this to make any sense.

I pulled out the old double LP and put it on the my old turntable. By that time WMD#1 was on the road to recovery, and was amazed by the analog pops and cracks and fascinated by the album artwork. I have always been a keyboard guy, and Elton and The Piano Man will always have a warm spot in my memories not matter now many drugs they ingested or trees they ran over. Then I hit the forgotten repeated skip in "The Ballad of Danny Bailey", so I pulled the LP and went to the CD. Some time later, as the final notes of "Harmony" drifted away, I remember thinking that there was a time when popular songs of whatever genre had good music and good lyrics.

In the meantime, I found my old copy of Patriot Before Profit, a biography of Governor Thomas Nelson of Virginia, governor during the revolutionary war. Nelson funded a regiment and pushed state spending policies to the nth degree to maximize supplies for the men in the field. During the siege of Yorktown, he was on the field as commander of the Virginai Militia. Told that Cornwallis had set up his HQ in Nelson's home, Nelson requested that the colonial artillery level the house...hopefully while Cornwallis was on the premises!

Occasionally you get an email recounting the privations and losses suffered by signers of the Declaration of Independence. Nelson is always listed as a man left penniless by his support of the Revolution, and the implication is that he went bankrupt in support of the cause. The truth is a little more interesting. When he died he was penniless but he was not bankrupt per se. He actually owned three plantations, plus thousands of undeveloped acres, two homes, a few hundred slaves, and had a significant amount of tobacco cured and ready for shipping. But because of his support of the revolution and the relatively illiquid nature of his assets he had to borrow significantly to keep afloat. Upon his death his estate sold much of his property, settled his debts, and left his family in a very comfortable position...however, he did almost literally die penniless.

On rereading parts of Mogers From Bourbonism to Byrd I was reminded of another great man, but one who has no book written about him (note to self-literary project here?), but is one of the most important Virginia elected officials of the first quarter of the 20th century. Henry De La Warr Flood, better known as Harry, was the 2nd in command of the Martin Organization. He was a ranking member of Congress, and would have gone to the Senate on the death of John Daniels were it not for the risk of a party split if he fought Claude Swanson for the position. Flood authored and presented the congressional war resolution for World War I, was chairman of the House Foreign Affairs committee, and was the linking personage who led the Virginia Democratic Party in the years after the death of Thomas Martin and prior to the rise of Harry Flood Byrd, his nephew and namesake.

As the sturm and drang of the senate campaign roil around us, I read these biographical materials and wonder. Goodbye Yellow Brick Road is in the oldies bin, Nelson is now a community college and Flood a state road. For all they did and meant, they are now pale, blurry memories outshone by the vibrant glow of our contemporaries. But in their day, they were giants. And, as I prepare to watch blogging of the Senate debate tonight, I wonder if we will ever see their like again.

WaPo Cheap Shots Allen Again...

2006-10-08T08:35:00.000-04:00

In today's Metro section the Washington Post's has an article asking if voters will be turned off by George Allen's attraction to all things western, saying that "Detractors Call Cowboy Image a Shtick".

Of course, the only detractor that is mentioned in the article is Webb campaign manager Steve Jarding. Apparently the author could find no actual voters who would slam Allen over his attire, so he used Webb campaign staff instead.

The bilious aspect of this article is that post staffer Michael Shear's writes as if Allen's western regalia was a campaign makeover like the "earth tones" transition Al Gore underwent in 2000. Like it or not, George Allen has worn cowboy boots and dipped snuff for years, and took to it when he was very young. You may not like it, but it is a personal style choice and no more.

To suggest that this is shtick adopted for political purposes is silly. However, it does reveal yet again the WaPo antipathy to George Allen.

This article could just as well have described Allen's style choices as bold decisions that marked him as a man who knows his mind and does not kowtow to what others do. That description or something like it has been assigned to every politician in my lifetime who wears a bow tie from former Senator Paul Simon (D-IL) to former Representative Tom Bliley (R-VA).

This article could have noted that although Allen was wearing cowboy boots, a bolo tie, and riding a horse in parades in 1993 when he was elected governor and in 2000 when he was elected to the Senate, demographics have changed, etc., and how will he fare with a changed electorate?

Last time I checked, when congressman vote they are recorded as voting for a bill, against a bill, or no voting. The Congressional Record does not note what they were wearing that day...and I don't think voters care. Voters care about issues, and to date all we know about Jim Webb is that he served courageously in Vietnam, he quit on Ronald Reagan, he used questionable language years ago, that he disagrees with George Allen on Iraq...although he won't give specifics on what to do get out. I think it fair for the WaPo to examine Webb's positions in more depth than they have to date. George Allen has used questionable language, but beyond that has a record in government that could be examined, up to and including legislation he offered, and a discussion of what his positions are on what to do in Iraq beyond "stay the course"?

The column inches for this piece could have been used to examine issues or matters of importance to the voters of Virginia. But that would have required that WaPo to offer a substantive piece on the election, and maybe even a substantive one that might favor Allen.

But as we know from the macaca barrage and the WaPo ombudsman letter that while the WaPo reluctantly agrees it went overboard during that episode, the WaPo is not going to do anything that might even remotely help George Allen.

GOP on the Razor's Edge as viewed Through Ed Tate's Pickle Jar

2006-10-07T09:34:00.000-04:00

Ed Tate is a motivational speaker, corporate trainer, and the 2000 Toastmasters International World Champion of Public Speaking. He is not to my knowledge involved in politics. However, Ed uses a metaphor for trust that serves to underscore the problems that the GOP has running up to this election.

Ed observes that trust is like a bank account. From the moment you are born, you earn little deposits (on stage he uses a large pickle jar and coins to make the point) for all sorts of things from walking and grinning and then doing good things. However, when you break trust, the withdrawal is huge. The pattern continues your entire life...you build trust through a series of small acts (deposits), but when you break trust you cause huge drops in confidence (withdrawals).

It's a good story, he's a great speaker, hit the link above and hire him today.

Ed's example also holds true for what has happened to the GOP this electoral season.

Social conservative voters have given years of polling place loyalty to the GOP. That loyalty is at risk of coming undone from overall discontent stemming from national matters like foreign policy and spiraling spending to localized problems from George Allen's comments to the revelations regarding Congressman Foley.

(Editorial note: I refuse to say "Foleygate" When will we stop referring to every scandal as "something-gate"?)

The GOP has managed to hold on through a range of hits...but Foley may be the straw that breaks the camels back. I noted in a post last month that the problem that the GOP faces is not that their voters will vote democratic, but that they will not vote at all.

For those who vote GOP based on foreign policy, economics, gas prices, etc....those folks will likely turn out. Those who vote GOP based on social issues are going to see this development, wonder why the GOP did not do something about it, and then wonder why they should vote for a party that apparently gives lip service to family values and protecting children and honors it more in oratory than in action.

If this holds true, then the GOP will be in a pickle, because their pickle jar will be pretty much empty.

Will This Change Our Breakfast Discussion?

2006-10-07T08:39:00.000-04:00

Growing up my father assisted my intellectual development through breakfast discussions of an assortment of wide ranging topics. With rare exception the topics changed as I grew up. The single consistent topics were "How do the Redskins do this week/season/off-season?" and "What was the cause of the War Between the States?"

His point of reference can be inferred by the name he uses to describe what is still sometimes labeled in Richmond as "The Recent Unpleasantness".

He felt that the war was about States Rights. Dad based his belief in great part on the fact that Lincoln did not issue the Emanciption Proclamation until the end of 1862, and even then it did not apply to areas not in rebellion against the USA. I said the cause was slavery, as every reason that is offered from states rights to westward expansion to tariff's had slavery involved as a root factor.

Our discussion goes on still, a testimony to the ability of generations to lock horns over any matter. Given that our country has not reached complete agreement on this subject of discussion, I guess it is no surprise we have not reached a resolution.

Today the Washington Post has a story on a new museum in Richmond. The American Civil War Center looks at the Civil War from the perspective of North, South, and African American, and seeks new answers to some complex questions that still bedevil our country more than 140 years after Appomattox.

I intend to visit this instituion. Maybe it can help Dad and me end this discussion and move on to subjects on which we completely agree.

You know, subjects like why the Dallas Cowboys are truly satan's spawn on earth and are in league with Lucifer.

And for anyone who disagrees with that statement, I have only two words: Clint Longley

Poll Dancing

2006-10-05T10:38:00.000-04:00

I posted last summer about political Tabiyas, applying to politics the ancient chess term describing a known position that is arrived at after a series of moves that are well analyzed and predictable. I suggested the same is true in politics, and went on to mention several-all of which we saw kick in prior to Labor Day.

After watching the hyper-energetic fluttering on various Virginia Political Blogs (a/k/a VaPoBlogs), I think we can add another one-which we will call Poll Dancing.

This is not the type practiced on spotlight stages in seedy buildings for $1.00 offerings. No, this dancing is done in broad daylight by bright people who want to validate results they like and invalidate results they don't.

Now when I was a kid, polling meant asking Grandaddy Kline who would win an election. He was a town councilman who had a keen grasp of human nature and frailty, which combined with a tendency toward brutally objective analysis almost always correctly predicted electoral winners.

Then statistics and telephoning and computers kicked in...but even then it was just a matter of comparing the numbers from the poll published in July, and then in August, and then in September, and try to discern the trend.

But nowadays analysts from the campaigns to the MSM to individual citizens can get their hands not just on polls but the questions asked the summary of responses...and will trumpet their take on the numbers.

And that is Poll Dancing

You can see it all over the VaPoBlogs, but best of all at NLS, where Ben and Not Gretchen Bulova (NGB) post about every poll they can find that reflects a Virginia election. It is amazing...they post a new poll, and the hits and posts start coming!

Example: This AM, NGB posted a new Reuters poll that has George Allen leading Jim Webb by 48-37. Response Post #1 was at 0956. By 1051, there were 32 posts. Excellent traffic for any site (well, except for Kos and the like). However, no matter what the poll results, almost all responses are easily categorized

If the analyst likes the numbers...the results are proof from God above that their champion will win a crushing and righetous victory, and prove their candidate should keep doing what he/she is doing.

If the analyst does not like the numbers...the results are fatally flawed due to bad method, bad sample, bad questions, were taken too early to adequately reflect public reaction to a recent event, and at very least provide openings to attack the perceived shortcomings of the opponent.

As the election day gets closer, and more polls come out, make plans to enjoy poll dancing of an even greater and more energetic scale! And the best thing about it is...you don't need to be carrying $1.00 bills to enjoy the show.

***************

UPDATE

Oh, heavens, I forgot one...let's not forget the the dreaded Margin of Error defense, which typically allows the candidate who is behind to write off the results by saying (for example), if candidate X is behind by five points, but the margin of error is six, then they could actually be winning the race! Of course, that also means they could be getting pummeled, but somehow that possibility never is mentioned.

Thanks to the good folks at RaisingKaine and their take on the lastest USA Today poll on Allen-Webb for remininding me of this!

Obama 2008 and the Tomb of the Senate

2006-10-05T10:07:00.000-04:00

Jonathan Alter has an interesting analysis of the chances that first term US Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) will be a candidate for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008.

I bet Hillary regret's not going back to Illinois to run for office! ;-)

It is an interesting piece, but what caught my eye was the weight assigned to Senate service in the analysis. Alter writes :

His advisers believe his mere four years in the Senate will not be a liability (Abraham Lincoln ran after two years in the House, Woodrow Wilson after two years as governor, and Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter and now Mitt Romney after four years as governor.) “The Senate is a political tomb,” says one. The longer one stays, the more controversial votes one casts.

This is thinking is consistent with not only my thinking general to the subject, but also recent history.

The last President elected from the Senate was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Several US Senators have contended for a major party nomination based from a senate seat or been tabbed for the VP nod, but only Dole and Kerry have won the presidential nomination as a sitting senator.

Why is this?

1. Voting Record: Alter notes the controversial votes, but I also point to the non-controversial and procedural votes that can be spun against you. Spend two terms in the Senate, and there will be a treasure trove of votes to point to when trying to defeat an incumbent.

2. Control: As the Executive you have more control of the agenda you face, you have control over a large number of appointments, and between these you have a greater opportunity to build a foundation from which to run.

3. Temperment: I think there is a different mindset needed to be an effective executive as opposed to being a successful legislator. Different skills are needed. That is one reason I think it is foolish to hear talk of Jim Gilmore running for the US Senate, and why I thought it was a great move for Mark Warner to pass on 2006 to aim for 2008.

If Obama goes, will this be a trend? Will the new paradigm be that there are two types of Senators? Will US Senators be categorized as career legislators or potential presidents?

It will be interesting to see what happens, but do not be surprised if the equation Obama's advisors are using above does not become the logic used by other senators to run for the party nomination early in their careers as opposed to late.

The Future Scramble in VA11

2006-10-05T08:01:00.000-04:00

This morning's Washington Post offers a lengthy Virginia Notebook piece on a future congressional candidacy by Gerry Connolly, and notes this could come as soon as 2008, especially if Tom Davis chooses to run for the US Senate.

The WaPo goes on to hypothesize on potential match-ups of Connolly v. Leslie Byrne for the Democratic nomination and Tim Hugo v. Jay O'Brien for the GOP nomination.

Interesting and required reading for NoVa politicos...

The Democrats Mistake in 2006

2006-10-04T16:21:00.000-04:00

When the history of the 2006 campaign is written, I think it likely that the Democratic Party will be taken to task for not doing better in this election. Even if they take the congress, they will do it narrowly. This despite this being the sixth year of a two term president (always bad for the party in the White House), a foreign policy seemingly without direction, and significant unhappiness with President Bush's domestic policy. How is it that this late in the campagin the Democrats have not taken control of this election?

I think it is their failure to run a unified campaign and nationalize the congressional elections.

Sometimes a massive change that shifts control of the Congress there has been the result of cataclysmic political mandate (1936 or 1964 presidential election) or a reaction from the same (1938 or 1966 echo election), or a one shot deal (Watergate). More often than not when one party is able to wrip control from the other it has been when the opposition has run a unified, national campaign to gain control. Examples include:

1946-GOP runs on theme "Had enough?"-wins Senate and House for first time since 1931.
1958-Democrats run on the "Eisenhower Recession" and make large gains in both houses of congress.
1980-GOP runs the Tip O'Neill satires attacking a congress that is fat and out of control-takes the senate and and enough house seats that in concert with the boll weevils creates effective conservative control of the House.
1986-Democrats run in a non-presidential year on the Bork Hearings and Iran-Contra and take back the senate and strengthen their hold on the House
1994-GOP runs the Contract with America, and takes both houses of Congress.

Why is the national campaign so important? Because it creates an umbrella that allows other issues to take root. A national theme that attempts to exploit some systemic failing in the opposition sets a tone that typically gives credence to other claims. It creates a constant pressure that the incumbent party has to guard against, and creates openings to then attack on smaller, local issues...which find more fertile ground to take root.

Instead, in 2006 the Democrats have assumed that the discontent was so high they did not need to nationalize the election...and I think whomever made had that bright idea is going to get a big kiss on the lips from President Bush come November 9.

The Democrats had a big opportunity this year. They could have tried to nationalize the election. But they did not...and with it they lost an opportunity.

We Need a Leader More Than a Landslide

2006-10-04T15:47:00.000-04:00

Not Buck Turgison at the Richmond War Room suggests that what we need to bring comity and civility back to politics is a landslide. He suggests that in the wake of the Clinton impeachment and the Bush v. Gore we need an election with a clear winner where no one could dispute the results.

I think it is a great idea. I too wish for another 1984 Reagan style landslide. However, I think for the time being we are beyond that, and what we need less than a landslide is a real leader.

Our republic is more divided than at anytime in my memory. It is not just a matter of division on a single major issue, something like Vietnam or the Civil War. Instead, it is a million small fissures that lead us all to be less connected and less willing to see the good in others.

Long commutes, lengthy business travel and electronic communication have eroded face to face communication. We buy on the internet or from the big box store, and the small town merchant whose shop served both commerce and communication is disappearing. We are more seperate than united.

Out politicians are not helping. They play gotcha and try to dazzle us with sweet nothings instead of substance...and we let them. Yep, we are not helping, either.

The Internet has not helped. Blogging, discussion boards, and other venues offer a method for everyone to have their say with an anonimity that negates any need to self-govern what they say, and by doing so ratchet up the temperature by giving full roar to any new bizarre idea or conspiracy theory that comes along.

Our country used to claim to be a melting pot, where all sought a significant degree of cultural assimilation from language to clothing. Now the goal is a mosaic, where everyone seeks to be a hyphenated american as if they somehow would magically give up all claim to their family tree if they don't trumpet their background.

Maybe the hostility has never been far away. Maybe the miracle that these differences have stayed under wraps for so long. I still sit in wonder that a country like Yugoslavia, that significantly withstood soviet interference and was cultural beacon behind the Iron Curtain would, upon the death of Tito, devolve into a killing field that combined the worst elements of ethnic hatred and religious fervor.

No, I don't think a single election can cure the ills that haunt us. I think a single leader can.

I believe there is a leader out there who can remind us of what this country is and has been for so many generations-a beacon of freedom that represents the best hope of mankind. A leader who is willing to not only tell us that we are still a shining city on a hill, but is also willing to make the tough decisions that will allow us to shine for generations to come. A leader who will focus on means and not ends, and will not think the only way to maintain our security is to sacrifice out freedom.

I yearn for a leader who wants us to respond to the better angels of our nature, and not push upon us the worst instincts of our fears...and when that person comes, regardless of party, I will be voting for them.

Yes, I want a lot. But I bet if we find that person, regardless of sex or ethnicity or color, then we just might also find that landslide that Not Buck so desperately wants.

Will It Be the Turning Point?

2006-10-04T15:32:00.000-04:00

Prediction: If George Allen wins in November, then October 2, 2006 will be seen as the turning point.

Not because of the two minute speech stanched the bleeding and cauterized the wound-even if the speech did just that.

No, it will be because James Webb did not have the desire or courage to be interviewed after the broadcast. Mr. Webb has hidden behind his staff this entire campaign, and being interviewed instead of again hiding could have been a bold move to dump the burden back on George Allen.

The Webb campaign had to have an idea of what Allen was going to say. They had to know he would claim the campaign needed to get back to issues. Why not be ready with a debate proposal? Say something like:

"I am completely in accord with my opponent's desire to get back to a spirited debate on issues. That is probably because his attacks on my positions on [fill in the issue] have not worked. Since my opponent has decided he is ready to discuss issues, I look forward the chance to meet him in debate at [fill in the locations] so all Virginians can hear and compare our positions on the issues facing our great Commonwealth."

Instead, we get Webb spin-meisters who insult Allen and the brief presentation.

If Webb is unwilling to quit hiding behind his staffers, then he is not worthy of serving in the US Senate.

Songs Your Parents Love

2006-10-02T08:00:00.000-04:00

Do you remember the songs your parents loved? I use the past tense, because the only time this is a concern is when you are a teenager...because there is just a chance that they might like music that you like, or that is at least popular at that time, and how embarassing would that be?

The thought comes to mind after reading Whitney Pastorek at Entertainment Weekly discuss how her mother-who apparently was really trying to find common ground with her music-crazed daughter-took to liking Bobby McFerrin's "Don't Worry, Be Happy".

Ms. Pastorek's pastoral meanderings on the subject brought to mind my folks. For me life was bit different, because they didn't just try to like current songs-they embraced and sang the songs. The bizarre thing was that the songs they liked were songs they liked instantly, and those songs almost always went to #1.

Ours was a musical household. Both my parents sang (in their day) in HS, College, and church choirs. My mother was an ace on the piano and pipe organ, and she loved the Beatles and Rachmaninoff. You may have met my father-he is the fellow you hear at the back of the church singing the tenor line in every hymn. My sister was Virginia All-State Chorus, and I was in the glee club in college and could spell Virginia All-State Chorus-as my sister's selection was as close as I ever got to being selected.

Mom fell for two pop songs, and sang them incessantly around the house. No others-just Roberta Flack's Killing Me Softly and later the Captain and Tennille's Love Will Keep Us Together. She heard them on the while being compelled to listen to WPGC (95.5 on your FM dial) on the car radio, and adopted them immediately. Within six weeks each had hit #1. Dad got a kick out of Elvin Bishop's I Can Help, and drove my sister crazy with it, and all the while the song hit #1 on the country charts and then crossed over into the top ten on the pop charts.

Understand that if Mom or Dad oved a song, they would likely belt them out whenever they heard them on the radio-regardless of where we happened to be, and regardless of the embarassment it might cause their children. As you might imagine, the impromptu singalong my mother created in the Manassas Harmony Hut took a long time for me to live down. How bad was it? Rent My Best Friend's Wedding, watch the Say a Little Prayer for You scene (less the lobster claws), and you will have some idea.

Amazingly enough, no record company ever offered either of them a job to help them select songs for recording.

Tempus Fugit...Dad's getting up there these days, and seldom sings...except when I bring the WMD to visit, and then he is likely to break into a Big Band tune, like Duke Ellington's Caledonia. Mom's been gone now for over 20 years, and she never saw her grandchildren. But I find myself singing roberta flack to the WMD to get them to go to sleep at night, and like to think that somehow Mom's with me singing to them...and I hope that I get the chance one day to help her sing to her great grandchildren.

Remember those songs, for one day they will be more than a memory-they will be an heirloom.

The Football Four Bagger

2006-10-01T21:03:00.000-04:00

My favorite autumn weekends involved the football four bagger. In the Bwana household this is a gridiron Home Run, and consists of wins by Bridgewater (my alma mater), JMU (She Who Must Be Obeyed's Alma Mater), UVa (I got an MA there) and of course our beloved Redskins.

This was the first four bag weekend:

Bridgewater 31
Hampden-Sydney 13

JMU 45
VMI 7

UVa 37
Duke 0

and finally...

Washington 36
Jacksonville 30

Another pleasant Sunday, indeed!

Cutler wins, and NLS ticks 'em off-just another quiet Sunday AM!

2006-10-01T11:08:00.000-04:00

Last night Jay Cutler won the Sandow Cup and the title of Mr. Olympia, making him the champion bodybuilder in the world. His victory dethroned Eight time winner Ronnie Coleman, and is a shot heard around the rarefied climes of bodybuilding.

Back in Virginia, we have an event ocurring that is perhaps less earthshaking but of massive importance for the reporting of campaigns...and our good friend Ben Tribbett of NLS fame is in the center of it.

As reported at Hampton Roads Politics, Brother Ben got and printed Mason-Dixon poll reports late last week that were embargoed for use in print publications until tomorrow. The MSM print media ain't too happy about it.

Naturally, all Webb campaign staffers denied leaking the results. The HRP use of a "Family Circus" cartoon to illustrate the denials reminds me a scene in Household Bwana right after She Who Must Be Obeyed finds something amiss, like a toilet seat that has not been returned to the resting position.

Aside from drive up the NLS hit count, this is yet another example of how the blogosphere is still the wild west of electronic communication. Bloggers are not necessarily bound by the rules of MSM journalists, and offer an alternative and sometimes unconventional method to circulate information. The James Webb campaign certainly has been on the cutting edge of using the blogosphere to prime the MSM for opposition attacks, a task the Washington Post has certainly taken to with a joyful glee.

The ongoing suit between Steve Chapman and the current proprieters of the Black Velvet Bruce Li webblog may set the first limits of what will certainly be some kind of clamp on web commmunications. But until then, the web and webblogs offer a direct and unfiltered line of communication to the reader.

So enjoy!

Sometimes a Song...

2006-09-30T22:40:00.000-04:00

...reminds you of how it was, and of things that will never leave your mind or your heart.

God Bless You, Don Williams, for giving us this song.

Good Ole Boys Like Me
by Don Williams

When I was a kid Uncle Remus he put me to bed
With a picture of Stonewall Jackson above my head
Then daddy came in to kiss his little man
With gin on his breath and a Bible in his hand
He talked about honor and things I should know
Then he'd stagger a little as he went out the door

CHORUS:
I can still hear the soft Southern winds in the live oak trees
And those Williams boys they still mean a lot to me
Hank and Tennessee
I guess we're all gonna be what we're gonna be
So what do you do with good ole boys like me

Nothing makes a sound in the night like the wind does
But you ain't afraid if you're washed in the blood like I was
The smell of cape jasmine thru the window screen
John R. and the Wolfman kept me company
By the light of the radio by my bed
With Thomas Wolfe whispering in my head

When I was in school I ran with kid down the street
But I watched him burn himself up on bourbon and speed
But I was smarter than most and I could choose
Learned to talk like the man on the six o'clock news
When I was eighteen, Lord, I hit the road
But it really doesn't matter how far I go

The WaPo Ombudsman and John Belushi

2006-09-30T09:39:00.000-04:00

I love the movie Animal House. Even though I have it on DVD, it is one of few movies that if it happens to pop on television when I am channel surfing I am drawn to it like a bug to a zapper.

I especially love the scene where John Belushi (as future US Senator John Blutarski) comes down the steps during a fraternity toga party and forcibly shows his objection to a folk singer's song choice by grabbing the singer's guitar and wildly smashes it against the wall then hands the shattered pieces back to the singer with the comment, "sorry", then proceeds to other bacchanalian entertainment.

I think the Washington Post Ombudsman likes that same scene, as this is the method Deborah Howell has chosen to respond to criticism of the WaPo coverage of the Allen Senatorial campaign.

While conceding that the massive coverage the paper gave was overkill, the ombudsman goes on to rationalize the need for and give overall approval to the massive numbers of individual stories.

In one paragraph, Howell writes "Did The Post overplay the incident? Not initially, but the coverage went on for too long after he apologized", but finishes the paragraph by saying "No one piece was over the line. But when you put it all together, it looked [my emphasis added] like piling on".

Translation-we weren't really piling on.

Then, after noting that it only seemed like piling on, Mrs. Howell vacilates between using her report to editorialize and rationalize WaPo coverage (example: It was Allen's "sputtering response" Peggy Fox's coverage that served to justify coverage) and finding some way to tortuously show contrition (example: haltingly admiting the Post violated its own guidelines and standards in using anonymous sources to attack Senator Allen with unsubstantiated allegations).

Mrs. Howell also notes that: "Does all the coverage hurt Allen's reelection prospects? The stories -- six of them were on Page 1 -- don't help him, but there are five long weeks before Election Day."

So we are to infer from this that if the stories had come out closer to the election day the WaPo wouldn't have run them? Or is she really telling that it is OK for the WaPo to run inflammatory stories that violate the Post guidelines of fairness as long as we are not too close to election day?

The Washington Post does not like George Allen, and that is their right. But don't try to seem fair and balanced by attacking the man day in and day out, then print a buried Ombudsman report noting that things should have been done differently.

There is little sincerity and no honor in that course of action.

And in that, I guess it may not be fair to compare the WaPo to John Blutarski.

At least Blutarski said, "sorry."

Now for Something Really Bizarre...

2006-09-30T07:32:00.000-04:00

As noted in an earlier post, the World Chess Championship is taking place even as I type in Elista, Russia.

However, due to some unusual protests it is only sort of taking place currently.

The match is between FIDE (the world governing body) World Champion Veselin Topalov of Bulgaria and Classical Champion Vladimir Kramnik of Russia. This match is also much, much more.

Many years ago former world champion Gary Kasparov broke with FIDE and attempted to start his own organization. Since Kasparov was clearly the strongest player in the world, the world regarded him as the champion even though he had not won through a FIDE cycle. Kramnik beat Kasparov a few years back to claim his title. Topalov has not only dominated world chess this year but also won the FIDE title. This is the match to reunify the titles...you know, just like boxing!

Chess players can be more than a little finicky, and the World Championships have been know for their fair share of strange challenges and demands. Eating habits have been challenged, espionage and hypnotism charged, and outright cheating alleged.

The 12 game match has begun with 2 wins for Kramnik and 2 draws. At one point for a win and 1/2 point for a draw, he has a 3-1 lead.

But the Elista match offers us something really bizarre.

Each player has a private lavatory, complete with an LCD in the wall so players can see and reflect on the board position while they "attend to business". Topalov claims, and has submitted videotape in support of his point, that Kramnik spends far more time in the bathroom than at the board. Topalov suggests this this is not only not consistent with the traditions of Over The Board play, but that Kramnik could be getting assistance during these frequent trips.

In order to keep the peace and continue the match, the sponsors have decided to create a single shared (but spacious and luxurious) bathroom that players will share.

This partially mollified Topalov, who through advisors asked that players also be accompanied by a FIDE arbiter to ensure the players do not receive aid.

Kramnik protested the decision, saying it was in violation of the match contract he signed.

So, we come to game Five. The single bathroon has been built, and the individual bathrooms locked. Kramnik refused to come out and play until his bathroom was unlocked. While he sat and stewed his lost the game on a time forfeit.

Now Kramnik demands that game five be replayed, or else he will walk.

They have wondered why chess has not taken off in the USA, and I have to agree. Behavior like this is infantile to end up on the front page of US Weekly and the National Inquirer, which makes it the perfect stuff to capture the attention of a public smitten with Paris Hilton and the like!

Big weekend for Non Visible Sports

2006-09-29T08:08:00.000-04:00

I am a competition guy, and have been since I was a kid. I follow Div 1A college football and basketball (living and dieing with the ACC season), but I am a die hard Redskins fan, and have more than a passing interest in golf and tennis, and every season follow each pitch of the World Series.

However, my real thrill has always been in events I participate in, which tend to be the Non-Visible sports or competitions...and the world is are now fully loaded with them.

The World Chess Championship is taking now in Elista, Russia between Bulgarian GM Vladimir Topalov and Russian GM Vladimir Kramnik. Kramnik leads 3-1 in a 12 game match, but Topalov has essentially accused Kramnik of cheating and is threatening to bail.

In Las Vegas, the professional bodybuilding world is gathered for the Mr. Olympia competition, waiting to see if Ronnie Coleman can win an unprecedented ninth consecutive Mr. Olympia title.

On the small scale gridiron, my alma mater takes on the Bow Ties of Hampden Sydney College in a homecoming showdown at Jopson Field in Bridgewater, Virginia. BC is riding a 35 conference game winning streak within the Old Dominion Athletic Conference.

Oh, and there is that small, ongoing matter of an election campaign...

Newest Silliness over Gas Prices

2006-09-29T07:24:00.000-04:00

Of the many silly screeds making the rounds this election season, the one I find to be cheerfully ridiculous is that gas prices are falling as we head toward election day to help Republican candidates.

Of course, the only problem with this inane idea is that if you believe that the GOP has enough pull to lower gas prices, then logically you have to believe they used that same pull to drive up gas prices to over $3.00 and suffer political ills as a result.

This is a silly issue and a silly proposition. What isn't silly is the fact that fuel flucuation like hurts us all. It makes it more difficult to manage our family budgets, and increased gas prices lead to increased transportation costs which are inevitably passed on to the consumer.

What we need, and neither the GOP or Democrats are willing to offer, is a reasonable energy plan that can make this country less dependent on other parts of the world...but that will likely happen about the same time that the Democratic conspiracy nuts stop attributing supernatural pricing power to the Republicans.

Where the Book Fair meets the Open Primary

2006-09-28T16:11:00.000-04:00

Steven Rankin is the proprieter of the Southern Crown blog. A Mississippi man, he and I struck up a correspondence regarding the current open/closed primaries litigation in Virginia and Mississippi.

You may know that there is a case in the Virginia Courts that could eliminate the use of open primary for nominating candidates in Virginia. You may not know that there is a similar law suit working its say up the ladder in Mississippi. In fact, it is in part because of this mirrored situation that Steve submitted a title for the Book Fair.

As the Book Fair was intended as a place to exchange titles and reading ideas, I held back the bulk of his email. However, his analysis of the current situation, taken in concert with the title he submitted, convinced me his note were worthy of a post of their own:

"I've just purchased from Amazon (for an amazingly low price) the 2002 book, Voting at the Political Fault Line: California's Experiment with the Blanket Primary. Its editors are Bruce Cain of UC-Berkeley and Elisabeth Gerber of the University of Michigan.

California used the blanket primary in 1998 and 2000, before the U. S. Supreme Court struck it down in California Democratic Party v. Jones. This case, of course, is the main precedent for the Virginia Republicans' and the Mississippi Democrats' federal lawsuits against their states' open-primary laws.

After reading what this book says about open primaries, I'm even more convinced that mandatory open primaries will be declared unconstitutional. At this point, it looks as though the Virginia case has the best chance of reaching the U. S. Supreme Court first. If so, Miller v. Brown will precipitate a landmark ruling.

The book also mentions the "top two" system ("nonpartisan primary"), in which all candidates run in the same election, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advancing to the runoff. Louisiana is currently alone in using the "top two" to elect all of its state officials, although efforts are underway to install the "top two" in Washington state and Oregon.

The book agrees with me that the "top two" is constitutional, and it's too bad that four judges in Washington state have apparently not read it, as two federal courts there have recently struck down Washington's "top two" initiative.

Last week the state announced that it will appeal Washington State Republican Party v. State to the U. S. Supreme Court.

BTW: I think the "top two" is fine for judicial and local elections, but I personally despise it for state and congressional elections. I believe that political parties deserve to be able to officially nominate candidates for those offices.

-- Steve Rankin
Jackson, Mississippi
http://southerncrown.blogspot.com/

**********

I urge you to take a gander at his blog...thoughtful analysis, excellent writing style, and marvelous taste in blog composition!

Fall 2006 Virginia Blogosphere Book Fair-Titles by Blogger Submitting

2006-09-28T11:45:00.001-04:00

Hello, and welcome to Day Two of the Fall 2006 Virginia Blogosphere Book Fair!

Today I present books as submitted by members of the blogosphere. If links were submitted with the titles, I have edited the submission so the URL is linked to the title of the book. Comments are-for the most part-as submitted (corrections for spelling were made, etc.).

Contributors were asked to send in up to five titles. Where more than five titles were submitted, I had to edit to keep the playing field level. My rule of thumb: If a blog is primarily political, then I printed the title submissions that were non-political or atypical of the blog content. If a blog is not political, and there were more than five titles, then I listed the political books.

Logic? Let's find out something new about the members of our blogosphere. No one is surprised if a GOP blogger or a democratic blogger submits a book bashing the other side, but might be interested in seeing what else said blogger is reading. However, if a non-political type submitted a political book, then it was used because-again-it offers up a different point of view on that blogger.

One blogger in a remarkable display of economcy sent me his Amazon Wish List (that did have more than five titles), so I have simply linked to that list while giveing a sampling of what awaits.

Also, if more folks submit titles, I will add them to the list...it is still not too late!

Books are grouped by blogger and their blog. Blogger comments on their submissions are typically are in italics, but sometimes I used italics for the title.

You will catch on...and away we go!

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NORM LEAHY-One Mans'Trash

George Mason, Forgotten Founder
by Jeff Broadwater

I haven't read it yet (it should be arriving any day), but I can tell from the reviews I've read so far that this will become a must-read for anyone who wishes to have a better understanding of one of the most important and principled members of the founding generation.

The Road to Serfdom
by F.A. Hayek

The book that launched a thousand classical liberal boats

On Liberty
by John Stuart Mill

One of the most important works on individual freedom ever written. Its
relevance only grows greater with time.

Dubliners
by James Joyce

This collection of Joyce's short stories is, quite simply, stunning. If you
read only one story, make sure it is "The Dead," the most heart-breakingly
beautiful creation by any author in the 20th Century. And if you have the
chance, and aren't shy, read the last paragraphs aloud -- the words fall like
the snow: softly, quietly, completely.

The Brothers Karamozov
by Fyodor Dostoyevsky

A difficult work, to be sure. But also a stunning artistic achievement that
takes us on a jopurney through the Russian soul. The dialogue with Satan is one of the most thought-provoking passages in any language.

STEVE RANKIN (southerncrown.blogspot.com)

I've just purchased from Amazon (for an amazingly low price) the 2002 book, Voting at the Political Fault Line: California's Experiment with the Blanket Primary.

Its editors are Bruce Cain of UC-Berkeley and Elisabeth Gerber of the University of Michigan.

NOT BUCK TURGIDSON (vawarroom.blogpost.com)

Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos
That crunching sound you hear is the last bit of your idealism dying. Kaplan's book is the ultimate work of Realpolitik, proving to me at least that high ideals are the road to hell in foreign relations.

Deliver the Vote: A History of Electoral Fraud in America
Think Florida was the first time an election went south or was stolen? Think again. The first record of vote buying in this country predates the republic... and the purpetrator was George Washington.

Storm from the East
The single best primer on the history of Islamic-Christian conflict I've ever read. A small book that takes you from the revelation to Mohammed to the U.S. Invasion of Iraq. Conservatives be warned, it does smack the Bush Administration upside the head, but there's much to be learned here.

Hunters of Dune
Just a plain old good book. I'm a huge Dune fan, and this penultimate novel doesn't disappoint.

How the Republicans Stole Christmas
Should be required reading for every state/federal politician. Bill Press talks about the intersection of faith and politics, and where both parties have gone wrong. I'm not much of a liberal, but I found myself agreeing with him most of the time. A very good, eye opening book.

VIVIAN PAIGE(http://vivianpaige.wordpress.com/)
All Politics is Local by Tip O'Neill
Conservatives Without Conscienceby John Dean

JIM BACON (Bacon’s Rebellion)
Hi, Bwana, Here are a couple of submissions. These are books that I am reading right now:

Insurgents, Terrorists and Militias
by Richard H. Schultz and Andrea Dew

This book deepens the understanding of the foe the United States is facing in the War on Terror and military conflicts in the Middle East. Using insights from anthropology, Schultz and Dew explore the warrior ethos in "primitive" societies, with fascinating case studies like Somalia and Chechnya.

Street Smart: Competition, Entrepreneurship and the Future of Roads
Edited by Gabriel Roth

"Street Smart" consists of a series of essays that examine solutions to traffic congestion from a free-market perspective. The solution is not to raise taxes and add capacity to accommodate demand (which is limitless when someone else pays for it), the authors argue, it is to put into place pricing mechanisms that make people pay for access to roads when and where they want it.

THE VALLEY BLUE DOG

Why Americans Hate Politics by E.J. Dionne Jr
Third time I've read Dionne's book -- Excellent draft on politics in modern America

Theory of Constraints by Eliyahu M. Goldratt
Recommended by a friend

Critical Chain by Eliyahu M. Goldratt
Recommended by a friend

Unhinged - Exposing Liberals Gone Wild by Michelle Malkin
Why am I a Democrat? Who knows why after reading Michelle's satirical expose

The Unshakeable Kingdom And The Unchanging Person by E. Stanley Jones
Pass the cornbread and say Amen

Finally, there is a book the Blue Dog simply loooves that is written by some guy named Steve Sisson can be found here
Bwana sez-"I wonder what that is all about?" ;-)

THE MASON CONSERVATIVE

Here are my book submissions. I'm trying to find some obscure ones that I have that might generate some interest.

The Shadow of Blooming Grove
by Francis Russell

An enormously entertaining of Warren G. Harding. It reads like a novel. Probably the best written, most engrossing biography I have EVER read. Its huge, but took me only three days too read because I never put it down. Its older, 1968, but holds up very well. Harding is from Blooming Grove, Ohio and the "shadow" is the rumor he had black blood in him. You get a top-notch political biography and large window into what was the crazy, crazy world of turn-of-the-century Ohio politics.

Rum, Romanism, & Rebellion: The Making of a President, 1884
by Mark Walhgren Summers

As it states, a history of the wildly exciting presidential election of 1884 between James G. Blaine of Maine (the first non-general the GOP had nominated since Lincoln) and Grover Cleveland, the popular, and rotund, reform Governor of New York (AND ex-mayor of Buffalo, my families home town). It will make any campaign today look like church. And Summers takes the perfect tone, mixing the seriousness of the issues
with the clownish nature of the way the newspapers covered it. Summers really gives color to an era, The Gilded Age, that is thought of in steel gray. I've read this four times, and its better every time.

Battle Cry of Freedom
by James McPherson

The absolute, number 1, KICKASS one volue history of the Civil War. In almost 1,000 pages McPherson nails almost every single possible angle of the Civil War and its just tremendous. If there is ONE book on the Civil War you could read, this is it.

Burr
by Gore Vidal

I am a big fan of historical fiction--thought not alternative history. Vidal does the unthinkable and tell a story with Aaron Burr, the black sheep of the Revolutionary family, as almost the hero, weaving the entire story of the Revolution and the Jacksonian era into Burr's long, succesful, tragic, and controversial life. Sometimes fiction can tell a person's tale better than fact. His other books in this series are good, especially Lincoln, but this one is the best.

Henry Clay: Statesman for the Union
by Robert V. Remini

This is the first history book I ever read cover-to-cover, and the first one I ever bought with my own money. If I had to pick oner American political figure in history that I would want to meet in life, it would be Henry Clay. Remini, as usual, is a master and the premier historian of the Jackson era. This is my sentimental pick, and one of my absolute
favore biographies of all time.

STEVE MINOR (SWVA LAW)

Steve submitted several titles, all of which can be found at the site hyperlinked to his name above. Some representative samples (dealing with Virgina) include:

Breaking Out: VMI and the Coming of Women (Vintage) by Laura Fairchild Brodie
Justice Lewis F. Powell, Jr. by John C., Jr. Jeffries
Soldier Of Southwestern Virginia: The Civil War Letters Of Captain John Preston Sheffey by John Preston Sheffey
A Murder in Virginia: Southern Justice on Trial by Suzanne Lebsock
J. Lindsay Almond: Virginia's Reluctant Rebel by Ben Beagle

James Atticus Bowden
This is just a topical reading list, but not my all time favorites.Â These books (except the first, which is the absolute favorite), frame many issues I write about and show you what I am reading today.

The Holy Bible (NIV or KJV)
The owner's manual for humans written by the Creator. Never gets old. Insights for individuals with every reading. Best read daily.

The Rise of the West by William H. McNeill
A multi-disciplinary approach to the whole of recorded human history 3000 BC to the present. Shows the way of the world on why things change and how.

The Culture Wars, The Struggle to Define America
by James Davison Hunter
A UVa scholar defines the issues based on insights from the late 1980s...a prescient work that still rings true.

One Nation, Two Cultures by Gertrude Himmelfarb
Another scholarly work showing the roots of the division and the intellectual history of the ideas that divide America.

Lee’s Lieutenants (D.S. Freeman) and Atlas Shrugged (Ayn Rand)
My current open books.

LOWELL FELD (Raising Kaine)

The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century by Thomas L.
Friedman

Freakonomics Rev Ed: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything bySteven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner

Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcolm Gladwell

Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq by Thomas E. Ricks

Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies New Edition by Jared
Diamond (Hardcover - Jul 11, 2005)

Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond

BWANA (Renaissance Ruminations)

The Campaign of the Century: Upton Sinclair's Race for Governor of California and the Birth of Media Politics
by Greg Mitchell

The first great media campaign

A Godly Hero : The Life of William Jennings Bryan
by Michael Kazin

The Great Populist, and author and deliverer of perhaps the greatest convention speech in American history. The chapter on the 1896 convention offers some not-so-common details about how the "Cross of Gold" speech was delivered.

The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York
by Robert A. Caro

Perhaps the greatest political biography of the 20th century, and one where Caro first tries to expose what drives men to want power, and what they will do to get it.

Lincoln at Cooper Union: The Speech That Made Abraham Lincoln President
by Harold Holzer

There are some speeches we are so familiar with that brief phrases bring them to life...words like "I have a dream", "ask not", "moutaintop", and "fear itself", plus a whole raft of Churchill quotes, bring to mind speeches that captured public opinion and changed history. We remember Lincoln at Gettysburg and in his Second Inagural address, but few remember his Cooper Union speech...which is ironic, because it is this speech that put him on the road to the White House, and without which all those other speeches referenced above may never have happened!

Burying Caesar: The Churchill-Chamberlain Rivalry
by Graham Stewart

A fairly recent and significant addition to the Churchill literature that tracks the long standing political rivalry between the Churchill's and the Chamberlain's, which came to full fruition in the 1930's as Churchill urged first the Baldwin government and then the Chamberlain government to rearm while Chamberlain chose the path of appeasement even as Nazi Germany prepared for war. Fascinating comparison of attitude, philosophy, and political style in a parliamentary democracy.

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Well, this is the list so far. If you have something to add, please email them to renaissanceruminations@hotmail.com, and please include amazon or B/N hyperlinks if you can!

Healthcare Hypocrisy

2006-09-27T20:23:00.000-04:00

In the midst of the Allen-Weber madness, something happens in politics that make sme smile...and I must thank the Richmond War Room for pointing the way.

Judy Feder is running against GOP incumbent congressman Frank Wolf in the Va10 congressional district. As detailed at Richmond War Room, Ms. Feder has created an attack page off her website. And she really wants an issue to run on, but no matter which way she turns she gets no traction.

And although I live in the 11th district, watching her has been fun...and her site provides more giggles.

Ms. Feder has attacked Mr. Wolf for supporting big oil. She then tried to lump in donations from oil company employees and also a Manassas family business that sells heating fuel oil to make her argument. Not only did she not successfully make the connection, her gas station photo op fell apart as gas prices fell. Of course, it didn't help that she has gotten more $$ in this cycle from liberal health care advocates than Mr. Wolf has gotten from so-called "big oil" in his entire career.

Then, in a speech available on YouTube, she criticized legislators who do nothing to stop traffic congestion by slowing development...ignoring the Hallowed Ground historic district that Frank Wolf co-sponsored that will aid historic preservation by slowing willy nilly development. Two birds for the price of one!

Of course, she gave that speech outside her district, so maybe she was refering to Someone else.

Now, on her new site, she attacks Mr. Wolf for being wrong on healthcare.

I imagine her charge would make more sense if one did not know that Mrs. Feder was lead staff member for Hillary Clinton in creating a new national health care plan that would let the government decide what doctor you could go to, that was exorbitantly expensive, and was so bad that the package was Dead b-4 arrival on capitol hill.

I appreciate that Mrs. Feder is desperate to find an issue that will allow her to get some traction. However, I seriously doubt that healthcare is going to be a winner for her...because every time she talks about Mr. Wolf's track record on health care, Wolf will talk about hers.

...and I think we all know who is going to get the better of that discussion!

Fall 2006 Virginia Blogosphere Book Fair-Virginia Books

2006-09-27T14:43:00.000-04:00

Welcome to the Fall 2006 Virginia Blogosphere Book Fair!

This serves as an effort to provide the denizens of the blogosphere to lay down their partisan cudgels and share intellectual sustenance by telling the world what books they have been reading recently or books they recommend others read.

Today we invite you to Part One of the Book Fair, a selection devoted solely to books about Virginia Politics. This is in great part a repeat of a post in the New-Domnion blog from November 2005. This post is still up, and the original included submission comments about why various books were must read books.

In addition to those entries, there are new biographies that have come out in the last year about Virginia politics, politicians, or history, and they are listed at the end of the post.

Since posting this list 30 minutes ago, I was asked to include hyperlinks for them. This is a lengthy list, and many of the books are no longer in print-which would necessitate an internet search anyway. So, I will take an intermediate step for now and hyperlink all the new books (plus the initial Frank Atkinson book, which has just been re-released). I will add links to the other titles as I get the opportunity.

Peruse, enjoy, and stay tuned for Part Two-Current Books grouped by subject-and part Three-Current books grouped by submitting bloggers

Classics:
Notes on the State of Virginia by Thomas Jefferson
Jefferson and his Time (biography in six volumes) by Dumas Malone

General Virginia History (including fiction)

Virginia: the New Dominion by Virginius Dabney

The Shad Treatment by Garrett Epps

Southern Politics in State and Nation (V. O. Key's , 1949)

Changing Politics of the South, focus on Ralph Eisenberg chapter on Virginia

Conversations with Colgate (by Guy Fridell)

The Governors of Virginia, 1860–1978 Edward Younger and James T. Moore, eds.

The Transformation of Southern Politics: Social change and political consequence since 1945 by Jack Bass

Early Virginia and Revolutionary Era:

A Little Parliament: the Virginia General Assembly in the 17th Century by Warren Billings

Antebellum Period:

Pistols and Pointed Pens: The Dueling Editors of Old Virginia by Virginius Dabney (I hope the Allen and Webb bloggers do not get crazy ideas at ten paces!)

John Randolph of Roanoke: A Study in American Politics, With Selected Speeches and Letters by Russell Kirk

Senator James Murray Mason: Defender of the Old South by Robert W. Young

Roots of Secession: Slavery and Politics in Antebellum Virginia by William A. Link

Reconstruction through the Martin Organization:

Bourbonism to Byrd by Alan Moger

Westmoreland Davis: Planter-Politician by Jack Temple Kirby

Dry Messiah by Virginius Dabney

The Byrd Era:

Harry Byrd and the Changing Face of Virginia Politics: 1945-1966 by (none other than 4th Circuit Court Judge) J. Harvie Wilkinson, III

Harry Byrd of Virginia by Ronald L. Heinemann

Virginia and the New Deal (y Ronald L. Heinemann)

Bill Tuck, a political life in Harry Byrd's Virginia by William Bryan Crawley

J. Lindsay Almond: Virginia's Reluctant Rebel by Ben Beagle and Ozzie Osbourne

A Man from the Valley by Francis Pickens Miller

The Crisis of Conservative Virginia: The Byrd organization and the Politics of Massive Resistance (Twentieth-century America series) by James W Ely

The Rise of Massive Resistance: Race and Politics in the South During the 1950s by Numan V. Bartley

Modern Developments:

The Dynamic Dominion: Realignment and the Rise of Virginia's Republican Party Since 1945 by Frank Atkinson

-----Books about Doug Wilder-----
When Hell Froze Over by Dwayne Yancey
Claiming the Dream Margaret Edds
Hold Fast to Dreams Donald Baker

Sarge Reynolds: In the Time of His Life by Andy McCutcheon and Michael P. Gleason

-----Works by Larry Sabato, including: -----
Virginia Votes (all volumes)
The Democratic Party Primary in Virginia: Tantamount to Election No Longer
and
Virginia Government and Politics: Readings and Comments (co-authored by Thomas Morris of Emory and Henry).

Campaign Dynamics by Thomas Carsey (due to section on 1993 Virginia Gubernatorial campaign)

Notes from the Sausage Factory by our friends at Bacon’s Rebellion

Recent Works and Additions to the above list:

Virginia in the Vanguard: Political Leadership in the 400-Year-Old Cradle of American Democracy, 1981-2006 by Frank Atkinson…a continuation of his earlier work on the Virginia Politics

John Tyler, the Accidental President by Edward Crapol. Heartily endorsed by The Mason Conservative, who offers a full review.

George Mason, Forgotten Founder by Jeff Broadwater, and submitted by Norm Leahy. His comment: “I haven't finished reading it… but I can tell … that this will become a must-read for anyone who wishes to have a better understanding of one of the most important and principled members of the founding generation.”

Claude A. Swanson of Virginia: A Political Biography by Henry C., Jr. Ferrell. Biography of the man with the plan between the death of Tom Martin and the rise of Harry Byrd.

Carter Glass: A Biography by Rixey Smith and Norman Beasely. Account of the life of the man who was the Father of the Federal Reserve, congressman, and US Senator.

Feel free to add to this list by submitting additional titles via the comments!

The Election is over, and other thoughts...

2006-09-27T06:32:00.000-04:00

As I kill time waiting to head off to the dentist for round #2 of a quasi-botched crown job, the beneficial coincidence of quiet time in my asylum (all the WMD are still asleep) and a large jolt of COSTCO java has led me to some new views on the current mud bath that is the US Senate election in Virginia 2006.

1. The election is over

I don't know who is going to win. The Webb campaign has been able to use macaca to avoid an issues campaign. Between questions about Allen's reactions to revelations about his jewish heritage and hints and allegations of questionable to unusual behavior (which the Webb campaign still uses its bloggers to keep up, while Webb refuses to comment) means that voters have likely either decided that Allen is a racist OR Allen is a man unjustly accused by a desperate opponent. I think the latest allegations of the use of the "N" word by unnamed teammates will a polarizing effect, driving folks to one end of the Allen spectrum or the other. When the campaign is over, this announcement will be seen as the final turning point of the campaign.

2. Allen will not be withdrawing

Our friends over at NLS are speculating that Allen will withdraw from this race. Such speculation is silly.

Elected officials are human, all doubts to the contrary notwithstanding. Losing an election allows one to claim the electorate was duped by a calculating opponent using deceit and lies. Withdrawing effectively admits the charges are true. No withdrawal.

Also, with whom who would the GOP replace Allen? Move in Tom Davis and the Democrats likely pick up the 11th district. I think you could pull off a late move to Eric Cantor, given how strongly GOP the 7th is, but would Cantor give up a ranking position in the House for a frosh spot in the Senate? Doubtful. Moving past them, who do you take?

Gilmore? Feh
Kilgore? double Feh
Bolling or McDonnell? After what happened to Dick Davis in 1982, doubtful.
Harry Byrd, Jr? Too late for a comeback
John Chichester? Oy

Besides, with only 40 days left it is near impossible to get someone out there and competitive with a major party candidate who has been in the field for almost a year.
No replacement.

3. Allen loss will help GOP House candidates

I may be way off base here, but hear me out.

There is a reason why Congress as a whole keeps getting low marks in public polling but the membership doesn't turn over. While there are the benefits of incumbency and partisan redistricting, I bet there are a lot of folks who like their congressman while being unhappy with the instution. I also suspect that there are folks out there who want a way to register their disapproval of the Bush administration while supporting their congressman (who they like, respect, etc.) A split ticket-vote Democrat in the Senate election, GOP in the House election-would allow them to do that...and the bad press for Allen will continue to make that option very palatable to a lot of folks.

We shall see!

Pre Book Fair Recommendation

2006-09-25T22:46:00.000-04:00

The Fall 2006 Virginia Blogosphere Book Fair is right around the corner, and we will be offering a list of books for consideration.

In the meantime, I want to make a recommendation to you that will educate, enlighten, and delight you.

Go out and purchase, borrow, or check out from your nearest library all of Robert Caro's books and start reading them.

It is not just that his books offer excellent writing. It is not that he is able to capture times in our history with a feel that is both deft and powerful. It is not that his constant inquiries into power, its use, and its effect are incisive and telling.

No, you should do it for the biographies within the biographies.

In the movie "The Wind and the Lion" Brian Keith as Teddy Roosevelt says that, upon hearing that he likes J.P. Morgan,

"The road traveled by great men is dark ... and lonely ... and lit, only at intervals, by other great men ... and sometimes they are your enemy."

Mr. Caro apparently believes this, as he uses this idea as a building block in all his books.

Mr. Caro has written four books, and is at work on a fifth. One is a biography of Robert Caro, the other three and part of a four book bio of Lyndon Johnson. Within each books Mr. Caro writes a mini biography or men who served as supporters, allies or opponents to the book's subject.

Book/Subject/Mini-Bio's
The Power Broker/Robert Caro/Al Smith (supporter) and Nelson Rockefeller (opponent)
The Path to Power/LBJ/Sam Rayburn (supporter)
Means of Ascent/LBJ/Coke Stevenson (opponent)
Master of the Senate/LBJ/Richard B. Russell (supporter) and Hubert Humphrey (Ally)

These are not small bits of verbiage. I recall the 1983 review of The Path to Power, which praised Mr. Caro for his 15,000 word mini-bio of Sam Rayburn and suggested that for the time being this was actually the definitive work on Rayburn.

Mr. Caro's concept is clear. In each book there are people who serve as the great force, either in concert with or in opposition to, the subject of the book and the work the subject was doing.

Mr. Caro's books are long, and often wordy. But they are good-his four books have won at least two Pulitzer Prizes and numerous other awards.

They are worth the time, and the breadth of knowledge and information you gain from reading them is well worth your time!

Bummed

2006-09-25T22:41:00.000-04:00

Bummed...c'est moi.

Since I was a little fellow, I have followed the newspaper comics...and politics. I had little choice. Every morning from early JHS my father would grab the sports, my mother the style section, so I could read the WaPo or WashStar A section, Metro section, or comics.

I have always enjoyed political or commentary type cartoons. I have enjoyed Doonesbury for decades, I loved Bloom County, and I am still sitting shiva for Calvin and Hobbs.

Recently, I developed an affection for the strip Boondocks, and while I was disappointed when it went on hiatus I had it's return in October to look forward to.

Now, however, it seems that may not happen. Instead, it is delayed indefinitely.

And that's why I am bummed.

At the Net

2006-09-25T07:51:00.000-04:00

There is nothing more exciting in tennis than two good serve and volley players at the net whacking away at each other...exciting, and good fun.

Today we see the same thing today in the Virginia Blogosphere...

At NotLarrySabato, Ben Tribbet reports a Salon article that quotes a classmate of George Allen who claims the Senator-as an undergraduate-used racist language.

Meanwhile, at Bearing Drift Jim Hoeft notes that the person making the claim is not exactly someone who passes the partisan smell test, and suggests that the rest of the article doesn't show Allen to be the racist that Webb supporters claim him to be.

Editorial comment-Of course, this would be about the Webb supporters, because the Webb campaign won't deign to say whether Webb thinks Allen is a racist.

Making the most sense is Chris at Mason Conservative, who echoes my frustration that this campaign will hinge not on issues, or what either candidate wants to do in the next six years-instead it is going to hinge on whether or not voters think Allen is a racist...and the blogosphere has contributed significantly to this condition.

Red State, Blue State, Bad Signs and Branding

2006-09-24T10:48:00.000-04:00

Last night yours truly and She Who Must be Obeyed had a rare chance to go out to dinner. As we drove down Va. 29 toward Fairfax Corner, She noted how similiar the Davis and Hurst signs were (both have blue backgrounds, white lettering, and I believe some red trim for accent), and how the Davis signs so outnumbered the Hurst signs that combined it seemed as if there were only Davis signs.

It struck me that this is the inadvertent result of the MSM map switch of 1992-1996.

Throughout the 1970's and 1980's, the national networks regularly used blue to denote GOP candidates and states that had voted republican. Red was the province of the Democrats. I recall clearly in the Jack Germond/Jules Whitecover book of the 1984 campaign compared the spreadin blue on the map of the Reagan landslide as resembling a suburban swimming pool.

Candidates of each party often used these assigned colors in creating their candidate signs. The primary example-Ronald Reagan's 1980/1984 signs had a navy blue background with white lettering.

Then-I guess in the Presidential 3-way of 1992-colors got switched around and by 1996 the MSM had reassigned red to the GOP and blue to the democrats...and this assignment of color is now embraced by both parties. Democratic states are "blue states", GOP states are "red states", and competitive states are assigned some shade of Purple.

Here is where the challenge begins...

Signs for any going concern are part of of developing a brand. McDonalds, Target, Starbuck's and others are readily recognized by a visual symbol they have developed as their brand. Candidates do the same thing.

The GOP never gave up on using blue, and have refused to adopt red as the dominant color for their campaign posters. Republicans like Frank Wolf and Tom Davis, who were first elected to congress when blue was very much the GOP color, have used it as the background in their signs for years.

The thing is that now you have Democratic candidates who have decided that they will use the blue background for their posters, also. That list includes James Webb and Andrew Hurst in 2006 and James Socas and Ken Longmeyer in 2004. They try using different fonts and colors for the letters on the posters, but the background remains blue and blends in with the colors of their established opposition, making it difficult to pick out at a distance and not as eye catching even up close.

I don't know why challengers select campaign colors that are so much like their opponents...I presume there is some psychological reason that blue is so prevalent, plus the visual clarity of white on blue.

Still, I keep hoping someone will adopt and bring back some of my favorite campaign sign colors:

Chuck Robb: red background, black lettering, with white trim around the letters to help them stand out. (I have read that the red+black+white combo is the most effective for catching the eye)

Herb Bateman: Yellow background, black lettering, white trim

Lynwood Holton: Lime green (sort of) background, blue letters

GOP General Assembly candidates in the 1975-85 time frame: White background, Candidate name in black, office running for in red (see r/b/w observation above.

All time least favorite-a gentleman who shall remain nameless was running in a primary for the Virginia HOD down in Richmond circa 1981. He had a brown background, tan lettering, and used a font that made it look like his name had been spelled out using a rope.

This guy definitely should have gone for the blue.

Hypocrisy and Bloviation

2006-09-23T23:27:00.000-04:00

In the 19th century, the commment was "There are three types of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics." This comment has been attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, Alfred Marshall, Mark Twain and probably-if you Google long enough-you can find it attributed to Whistler's Mother. It applied to politics, business, and other contact sports.

Nowadays, we have something different...it is the dynamic dueo of Hypocrisy and Bloviation

We all know about Hyprocrisy. The American Heritage dictionary defines it as: The practice of professing beliefs, feelings, or virtues that one does not hold or possess; falseness (OR) An act or instance of such falseness.

Bloviate has many uses, generally about speaking pompously. But my favorite definition comes from WordNet, which gives the definition as to "orate verbosely and windily"...and, I might add, without adding much to the public debate.

I mention these things as I suspect we are about to be hit by a deluge of both as the congressional campaigns head into the homestretch...naturally, I am likely going to have the chance to chat about these in the weeks ahead.

Nope, I don't have a crystal ball...but I do have a r-e-a-l-l-y strong hunch

I Win Elections...Hear Me for My Cause

2006-09-23T22:30:00.000-04:00

There. I said it. And although I doubt there willbe a path beaten to my door, it's true.

I had an ephiphany this AM. I was discussing current events at the playground after a soccer game. You can imagine it...a clustering of soccer mom's and NASCAR dad's, surrounded by children trying to do Flying Wallenda moves off the top of the sliding board, oblivious to the possibility of harm. I apparently made an observation that impressed one of the fathers, because he said, "have you ever thought about running for office?".

Bwana reply-yes
NASCAS Dad-Why don't you?
Bwana-Because I couldn't win

The conversation then spriraled off into assurances that I would be a great candidate, that I should run for something, why can't we get better folks to run for office, etc.

But the truth is, you see, that no matter how dynamic I might be perceived as, or how skilled a speaker I might be, I could never win. Why? Because I could never get a nomination. I am not a litmus test kind of guy. I would fail the test in either party...and as a result I and those like me could never get on the ballot.

For example, the Democrats wouldn't take me for various resons, not the least because I believe in second amendment rights, because I am personally pro-life, and because I see no harm in prayer in schools.

The Republicans wouldn't have me because while I am pro-life, I think reproductive matters are a matter of conscience between the individual and the Almighty and that government should not get involved; while I am pro gun rights I really don't see the benefit of allowing private citizens to own automatic weapons; and I think that sex education and providing instruction in prophylaxis in public schools probably would solve more problems than it creates.

So there you are...I have beliefs that put me beyond the pale of the small coterie that runs the GOP and the Democrats.

Yes, this puts me outside the pale of party regularity...however, it also puts me solidly in the middle of the folks who win elections in this country. You see, I like solutions that promote practical results and limit government intrusion as opposed to lock step devotion to an ideological laundry list.

I don't think I am alone.

We in this large group are not in agreement on all the issues. However, we have one thing in common...we also are not in 100% agreement with the litmus test ideologies of both parties.

We want commonsense solutions that keep federal powers limited. Failing that, because we know there are some problems that are so big the feds need to be the driving force, let the federal power be used effectively and not excessively or willy nilly.

We dream of a society that will recognize and enrich those who risk and excel, yet shows concern and support for the least among us. We may even agree with Hubert Humphrey, who said "The moral test of a government is how it treats those who are at the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the aged; and those who are in the shadow of life, the sick, the needy, and the handicapped."

We are smart enough to know when grander folks are spraying on our shoes and calling it a rainstorm; we see through the negative advertising and the hypocrisy so rampant in todays political campaigns.

So to any candidate that hears this cry in the dark-don't take us for granted. Take us seriously.

Remember that although we don't have the time to devour the 20 page position papers you post online that doesn't mean we don't care about the issues.

Believe me when I say you are going to get a lot farther by talking to us adult to adult about issues than slinging mud.

Embrace the radical thought that if you can show us how your positions will improve our communities, we will be for you.

Explore the equally radical idea that your party might be stronger if it allowed folks to participate as equal members even if they don't agree with your issues litmus test.

Ponder the idea that voters will respond more strongly to candidates that bring us together than those who seek to divide us.

Keep in mind that we don't just look at issues, but we look at the individual-for all their foibles and imperfections-and think "is this the kind of person we want representing us?"

We, the people who win elections, are out here waiting for you. Really, we are...waiting. Who's going to come looking for us?