More thoughts on Obama...
The subject of a Barack Obama candidacy in 2008 has been mentioned briefly here at RR and again over at Phyillis Randall's blog.
Now Charles Krauthammer offers his view in the WaPo.
CK suggests an Obama run in 2008 is a win/win/win, and offers the following scenarios, where Obama would:
A) Win the nomination and presidency, OR
B) Loses the nomination but gets the VP nod and the Dems win, which sets him up for 2016, OR
C) Loses the nomination, gets the VP nod and the Dems lose, which sets him up for 2012.
For a moment, assume Obama runs and is not nominated for the Presidency. The biggest advantages to this scenario are experience and candidate queueing. Obama's biggest experience gap is in foreign policy, something that will be remedied by a term or two as VP. Plus, a good showing as a nominee candidate moves him to the front of the candidate queue for the next open democratic presidential slot, be that from the VP position or as a sitting US Senator.
CK suggests that right now Obama is hot, hip, and happening. He must strike when the iron is hot. As I have noted before, in politics sometimes you have to not when you want to, but when the opening presents itself...and 2008 will be the first completely open year since 1952, with neither an incumbent president running for reelection nor a sitting VP going for the top spot himself.
The ultimate point here is that Obama has more to gain from running-even if he loses-than by not running IF his ultimate goals is the White House.
Now Charles Krauthammer offers his view in the WaPo.
CK suggests an Obama run in 2008 is a win/win/win, and offers the following scenarios, where Obama would:
A) Win the nomination and presidency, OR
B) Loses the nomination but gets the VP nod and the Dems win, which sets him up for 2016, OR
C) Loses the nomination, gets the VP nod and the Dems lose, which sets him up for 2012.
For a moment, assume Obama runs and is not nominated for the Presidency. The biggest advantages to this scenario are experience and candidate queueing. Obama's biggest experience gap is in foreign policy, something that will be remedied by a term or two as VP. Plus, a good showing as a nominee candidate moves him to the front of the candidate queue for the next open democratic presidential slot, be that from the VP position or as a sitting US Senator.
CK suggests that right now Obama is hot, hip, and happening. He must strike when the iron is hot. As I have noted before, in politics sometimes you have to not when you want to, but when the opening presents itself...and 2008 will be the first completely open year since 1952, with neither an incumbent president running for reelection nor a sitting VP going for the top spot himself.
The ultimate point here is that Obama has more to gain from running-even if he loses-than by not running IF his ultimate goals is the White House.
posted by Bwana | 7:37 AM
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