...and so it begins...

A few days ago I offered an opinion that James Webb should pull his "Reagan" advertisement in deference to the wishes of Nancy Reagan. I suggested that he could get more free publicity and likely score more points by being a stand-up guy by pulling the ad. He did not.

I predicted that if he didn't, especially given the comments made by his campaign managers in a book they authored, that he was opening the door to a response ad by Allen.

Not that any of this takes too much imagination...once the ad ran the rest was almost pre-ordained. As they say in books on chess tactics, "once you say A, you must say B".

Well, the other shoe has dropped. Kilo has the new Allen ad via YouTube at http://kilosparksitup.blogspot.com/, and I later found the YouTube link in a discussion at NotLarrysabato:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiaYl89ehTM

I have given some thought to why the Webb campaign did not pull the ad. Had they vetted the ad, calculated there would be a request to yank it, and thought it would give Webb more publicity?

I tend to think not, and that what is more likely is that the Webbistas did not think Mrs. Reagan would object, and did not have a back-up ad ready, so they felt they had to run the ad or else they would be wasting the money they had paid for the television time slots.

One might think "how could they not have had another ad in place, ready to go?" I think the answer is because Webb is low on money, and that they have spent what they have on more immediate needs or have already committed it to buying time down the road, looking to use future monies to film the new advertisements.

Now all that is left for me to claim my Oracular status is for a Nancy advertisement to come out.