The Real Problem for Republicans...
As Mercutio lays dying in Act III of Romeo and Juliet, he curses both the Monagues and Capulets, saying "A Plague on both your houses! You have made worm's meat of me..."
In 2006, the Reagan conservatives play the part of Mercutio, but this time Mercutio is going to be the butcher.
As I jetted around the blogosphere this AM, I saw where the inimitable James Atticus Bowden offered this comment (in part) in a discussion about the Webb ad:
Also, the Democrat Party has gone too far to the Left to get the Reagan Democrats back. The challenge for Republicans is to not tax and spend worse than the Dems at the Federal and state levels - and lose their Conservative base.
I think James is on the right track, especially given what we saw in the last Presidential election, where President Bush won in great part via maximum turnout of the base.
However, if there is as great a difference between the parties as he suggests, the issue is not losing the base per se, but getting them to turn them out to vote.
Last year I blogged on how Abraham Lincoln captured a simple formula to win elections. The basis of his plan is to identify your people and get them to the polls...and while modern technology will make it relatively easy for the GOP to identify, whether they will turn out or not is another story.
I am told that at a recent GOP fundraiser in Northern Virginia John McCain said he was not worried about losing the GOP base, but that he was worried about them turning out.
And therein lies the rub...and I think it puts the GOP in a bad position.
The economic expansion of the 1990's was not just a matter of the IT boom. It was also a matter of government economies. Since 2000, The GOP has overseen spending increases-both military and not-and tax cuts that have caused the deficit to balloon. There is not even lip service to federal fiscal frugality.
The old-time Reagan GOP conservative (of which I number myself) focus on economic and foreign policy conservatism has given way to a greater focus on conservative social issues, which in tandem makes the GOP a less welcoming home for some...and the real question is whether this segment of voters-both in Virginia and across the nation-feel a desire to vote in 2006 or not. In addition, GOP loyalists more and more demand adherence to a punch list of policy positions. How will this demand for complete conformity play with voters?
I don't think it is a question of who JAB identified GOP base will vote for. I do think it is a question of whether they are motivated to get up, stand up, and vote. If they don't, then Mercutio's ultimate end will be fate of this year's GOP candidate dreams...and an interesting prelude to the 2008 Presidential campaign.
In 2006, the Reagan conservatives play the part of Mercutio, but this time Mercutio is going to be the butcher.
As I jetted around the blogosphere this AM, I saw where the inimitable James Atticus Bowden offered this comment (in part) in a discussion about the Webb ad:
Also, the Democrat Party has gone too far to the Left to get the Reagan Democrats back. The challenge for Republicans is to not tax and spend worse than the Dems at the Federal and state levels - and lose their Conservative base.
I think James is on the right track, especially given what we saw in the last Presidential election, where President Bush won in great part via maximum turnout of the base.
However, if there is as great a difference between the parties as he suggests, the issue is not losing the base per se, but getting them to turn them out to vote.
Last year I blogged on how Abraham Lincoln captured a simple formula to win elections. The basis of his plan is to identify your people and get them to the polls...and while modern technology will make it relatively easy for the GOP to identify, whether they will turn out or not is another story.
I am told that at a recent GOP fundraiser in Northern Virginia John McCain said he was not worried about losing the GOP base, but that he was worried about them turning out.
And therein lies the rub...and I think it puts the GOP in a bad position.
The economic expansion of the 1990's was not just a matter of the IT boom. It was also a matter of government economies. Since 2000, The GOP has overseen spending increases-both military and not-and tax cuts that have caused the deficit to balloon. There is not even lip service to federal fiscal frugality.
The old-time Reagan GOP conservative (of which I number myself) focus on economic and foreign policy conservatism has given way to a greater focus on conservative social issues, which in tandem makes the GOP a less welcoming home for some...and the real question is whether this segment of voters-both in Virginia and across the nation-feel a desire to vote in 2006 or not. In addition, GOP loyalists more and more demand adherence to a punch list of policy positions. How will this demand for complete conformity play with voters?
I don't think it is a question of who JAB identified GOP base will vote for. I do think it is a question of whether they are motivated to get up, stand up, and vote. If they don't, then Mercutio's ultimate end will be fate of this year's GOP candidate dreams...and an interesting prelude to the 2008 Presidential campaign.
posted by Bwana | 7:43 AM
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