General Predictions for Today and the months ahead…
The polls are open, and will join the blog crowd and offer my predictions...
Virginia 2-Drake wins with 51% of the vote. I have absolutely no contact with this district, so I am whistling in the wind here. But I am betting that although the Kellam influence goes deep, dodging the debates will come back to hurt him. On the other hand, if Kellam can win this, then immediately consider him to be on the short list of Democrats to run for a potential open Virginia US Senate seat in 2008...more on that later.
Virginia 8-The embarrassing reign of Jim Moran will continue. I understand that the eighth was cut to be a democratic district, but can’t the Democrats find someone a candidate who is not a walking embarrassment?
Virginia 10- Frank Wolf will win this race, and will win by a margin that surprises the vast majority of the blogosphere (i.e., most bloggers seem to have him getting below 55%). Congressman Wolf will get at least 56% of the vote, and perhaps higher. Why do I say that? Not only does he have a superior record to run on, not only is the recognition of his strong service recognized across the district and validated by the unbroken string of endorsements from the Potomac News and Manassas Journal Messenger in the east to the Winchester Star in the west, not only has he avoided being swept away by the tsunami of out of state money, but he has 26 years of exceptionally strong constituent service to run on.
The big shock here will be that despite national trends, huge amounts of out-of-state money coming in for Democrat Judy Feder, changing demographics in the district, GOP losses in Va HOD races in 2005 and a special state senate election in 2006, plus a big Kaine win in 2005, Wolf will not only win the district by a wider than expected margin, but he will carry his portions of Fairfax and Loudoun counties and will make for an early victory party...
Virginia 11-Tom Davis defeats Andrew Hurst with 60% of the vote, sending Davis to prepare for a possible Senate run in 2008 and Hurst in search of a State house or supervisor race. I have my doubts that Hurst will be able to claim the 2008 democratic nomination if Davis runs for the Senate with any greater ease than Ken Longmeyer was able to get his rematch this year. Too many Democratic pols want to go to Congress, and folks like Gerry Connolly will push Hurst aside despite his vigorous campaign this year.
Marriage Amendment-this proposal loses 55%-45%
Virginia US Senate-I have Webb with 50%, Allen 49%, Parker 1%, but I am torn.
Why?
Normally, one would think that an incumbent who is not at 50% in polls immediately before Election Day is in trouble, as undecided’s will break away from the status quo. However, it would seem that Webb should have put this away weeks ago. Macaca, deer heads, nooses, Confederate flags, bad reaction to discovery of jewish ancestry, allegations of racism against Allen...with all this and more out there, Webb should have gone over 50% some time back. One would think that if the character stuff that has been thrown at Allen was going to stick, it would have stuck and sunk him by now.
Given the general state of the nation and discontent with the GOP, I pick Webb to win...but would not be surprised if Allen scores what at this point would be a come from behind victory.
Virginia 2-Drake wins with 51% of the vote. I have absolutely no contact with this district, so I am whistling in the wind here. But I am betting that although the Kellam influence goes deep, dodging the debates will come back to hurt him. On the other hand, if Kellam can win this, then immediately consider him to be on the short list of Democrats to run for a potential open Virginia US Senate seat in 2008...more on that later.
Virginia 8-The embarrassing reign of Jim Moran will continue. I understand that the eighth was cut to be a democratic district, but can’t the Democrats find someone a candidate who is not a walking embarrassment?
Virginia 10- Frank Wolf will win this race, and will win by a margin that surprises the vast majority of the blogosphere (i.e., most bloggers seem to have him getting below 55%). Congressman Wolf will get at least 56% of the vote, and perhaps higher. Why do I say that? Not only does he have a superior record to run on, not only is the recognition of his strong service recognized across the district and validated by the unbroken string of endorsements from the Potomac News and Manassas Journal Messenger in the east to the Winchester Star in the west, not only has he avoided being swept away by the tsunami of out of state money, but he has 26 years of exceptionally strong constituent service to run on.
The big shock here will be that despite national trends, huge amounts of out-of-state money coming in for Democrat Judy Feder, changing demographics in the district, GOP losses in Va HOD races in 2005 and a special state senate election in 2006, plus a big Kaine win in 2005, Wolf will not only win the district by a wider than expected margin, but he will carry his portions of Fairfax and Loudoun counties and will make for an early victory party...
Virginia 11-Tom Davis defeats Andrew Hurst with 60% of the vote, sending Davis to prepare for a possible Senate run in 2008 and Hurst in search of a State house or supervisor race. I have my doubts that Hurst will be able to claim the 2008 democratic nomination if Davis runs for the Senate with any greater ease than Ken Longmeyer was able to get his rematch this year. Too many Democratic pols want to go to Congress, and folks like Gerry Connolly will push Hurst aside despite his vigorous campaign this year.
Marriage Amendment-this proposal loses 55%-45%
Virginia US Senate-I have Webb with 50%, Allen 49%, Parker 1%, but I am torn.
Why?
Normally, one would think that an incumbent who is not at 50% in polls immediately before Election Day is in trouble, as undecided’s will break away from the status quo. However, it would seem that Webb should have put this away weeks ago. Macaca, deer heads, nooses, Confederate flags, bad reaction to discovery of jewish ancestry, allegations of racism against Allen...with all this and more out there, Webb should have gone over 50% some time back. One would think that if the character stuff that has been thrown at Allen was going to stick, it would have stuck and sunk him by now.
Given the general state of the nation and discontent with the GOP, I pick Webb to win...but would not be surprised if Allen scores what at this point would be a come from behind victory.
posted by Bwana | 9:56 AM
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