I just cannot take it...

...so we are going to give WordPress a try before heading to the pay to play blogs.

Please come visit at renaissanceruminations.wordpress.com

I hope to hear from you soon!

Bwana

Blogger Beta Update-Still Sucks

After a long time period to allow the tryptophan to wear off, I come back to blog and discover that even if I post in the afternoon much of the WYSIWYG features of blogger are still not working. Even the links for "post options: and "show all" are disabled.

The Blogger Beta still sucks, and I will begin searching for other options.

Bwana out...

Happy Thanksgiving!

To the denizens of the blogosphere, have a Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy yourself today, embrace the oncoming food coma, and if you go shopping on Black Friday remember this: Don't drive around trying for the perfect place, grab the first parking slot you see!

Michael Collins Lives On...

I was reading the WaPo coverage of another attack in Iraq against civilians, this time a group of trainee policemen. And as I have done numerous times over the last three years, I thought to myself "Michael Collins lives on."

Much of what Americans might know of Mr. Collins comes from the movie Michael Collins, but that gives an incomplete picture.

Michael Collins was the defacto leader of the Irish Independence movement after Eamon de Valera went to the USA to raise funds. His innovative guerilla tactics ulimately brought the British government to the negotiating table, where the Irish Free State was created. This step caused an estrangement between Collins and de Valera, who would accept nothing but Irish independence as opposed to the near dominion status created by the agreement. After the Irish legislature accepted the treaty, de Valera and his followers broke off and began the Irish Civil War. Collins ultimately led the government forces to victory, but was killed shortly before the end of hostilities in an ambush in County Cork at the crossroads of Béal na mBláth.

There are numerous books and websites that provide the details of Mr. Collins life and impact far better than I can in this blog. What continues to captivate me is how his tactics have survived and proven effective for almost a century. The Israeli guerilla leader Yitzhak Shamir, used "Michael Collins" as his code name in fighting the British, and the conflict to establish Taiwan (in the face of the Communist revolution in China) was called Operation Michael Collins.

The tactics? First, his men did not wear uniforms. Earlier generations of guerillas of all counties in revolt (including colonial america) saw themselves as being part of a national army and were uniformed as if in an army. Collins felt being able to move unnoticed was of far greater value tactically than claiming national pride in a uniformed force. In fact, the British did not have a verifiably accurate photograph of him until Collins was sent to England with Archie Griffith to negotiate with Winston Churchill over the creation of the Irish Free State. Today this tactic is such an accepted point that no one thinks to question it...but Collins was the first to do it.

The second and more pertinent tactic was silencing sources of information. Collins realized the British were able to track down IRA figures adn Dail politicians was that they had impeccable sources of information stemming from their work with the Irish police. Collins created an assassination team called the Twelve Apostles. This team first warned potential targets to stop collaborating with the British, then killed those who continued to do so. This group also carried off the Bloody Sunday executions of fourteen British intelligence offers sent to Ireland to eliminate Collins and his team. This spread fear among potential informers and cut off the flow of information to the British, who then found it difficult to operate.

This interdiction of intelligence is the tactic that he founded, and the fruits of it are seen to this day.

Blogger Beta Update

Still not what it could be. It seems that half the time that when I blog in the afternoon there is an what was called the "edit HTML" screen and a preview link, but not a "compose" tab...in the morning there is a notepad type editor with out the editing icons of the "edit HTML" screen, there is no preview link, and-of course-there is no "compose" tab.

As yet, beyond the options of labels and the much faster publishing of blogs, I am seeing no compelling reason to have made the change.

Stay tuned for future developments...

California Says Bloggers Free from Certain Libel Claims

MSNBC reports that the California Supreme Court has ruled unanimously that bloggers cannot be sued for libel for printing the words of others. This protection covers ISP's and users of their services, including bloggers and bulletin board posters.

The Court said: "Subjecting Internet service providers and users to defamation liability would tend to chill online speech".

The case does not address the matter of suing bloggers for words they have themselves written.

The court also said while the ruling may have some "some troubling consequences", that "Until Congress chooses to revise the settled law in this area" people who contend they were defamed on the Internet can seek recovery only from the original source of the statement, not from those who re-post it."

If They Would Only Listen: Why the GOP & the Dems are in Trouble

I get that folks tend not to listen to me. I have great ideas, great concepts, but they are not everyone's cup of tea. My wife is kind enough to listen, but heavily filters-and, frankly, rightly so. My boss listen's half way, but typically doesn't hear. My kids don't hear me at all until the third time I say something.

Still, when you say something that is so clearly correct and the target is non-responsive...well, that is bothersome.

A year ago in the wake of the Kilgore 2005 loss, many GOP types were extoling the need for a convention to select more electable statewide nominees. I offered up this post rebutting the idea, and said:

"The real key to winning elections is parties that stand for something. The key lies with candidates who promise not just to lead but offer real and achievable ideas that will better the lives of all the citizens that candidate wants to represent and workable plans to make those ideas reality. The key lies with candidates who excite and motivate the party base to work and persuade the undecided voters to believe."

The GOP clearly did not do this in 2006, and were further hampered in Virginia by an Allen campaign that found new ways to stumble. Compare George Allen's reaction to the "macaca" incident to Michael Richards, who after a horrible racial epithet loaded run-in with a heckler in LA immediately went on David Letterman to apologize. This is right out of the Kennedy playbook-screw up, apologize immediately, cauterize the wound, stop the bleeding, and move on. Nonetheless, the reason why this was able to happen was because the GOP has lost its way and has moved far away from either Goldwater-Reagan convservatism or the cut government tenets of the 1994 "Contract with America". Instead, the GOP was seen as being primarily interested in staying in power so as to keep power for the sake of having power. Exceptions like Frank Wolf scored comfortable victories in the face of a Democratic wave because they stand for something.

But the Webb campaign was not much better. While it was a tactical masterpiece of running a campaign and taking advantage of every opportunity, it didn't really make a case for what the Democrats would do, only that they wouldn't do what the GOP did. Jim Webb ultimately ran as not being George Allen or George Bush, and his lack of issue definition now has some bloggers wondering how complete his dedication to the Democratic Party is. At the national level, the Congressional Democrats are still a blank slate, and we really don't know what they will do...even though after a campaign such as we just endured one might think that voters would be able to say with complete confidence what was going to happen.

Why is this the case? Because neither party really stands for anything beyond not being what the other guy is. There is no high level, guiding concept of what either party is grounded in. Both parties seek to protray the other as the sum of it's most extreme parts.

I will say it here, and mark my words this statement will come true:

The first major party that is able to establish an identity for itself will run the table in 2008. It is not a matter of position papers, blogs, websites, study groups, or even individual legislation passed. It is a matter of showing the country a studied view of where the country needs to go, an explanation of how to get there, and a logical and unified concept of governance that ties it all together.

With that, Reagan 1980/84 type victories, even landslides. Without that, neither party can either hope to establish electoral dominance...or even effectively govern for the long haul.

Until they do this, the Republicans and Democrats are in trouble.

Funny how folks react...

You may recall how during the recently ended US Senate campaign in Virginia the Washington Post chose to focus on George Allen's attire, and to judge by the LTE section that was all well and good-nothing was published to suggest that WaPo was focusing on style over substance, and led to lots of notes to the Ombudsman.

Maybe times have changed.

Today's Letters to the Editor includes several comments on the WaPo writing about the fashion style of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker elect of the House of Representatives, and criticizing them for focusing on Mrs. Pelosi's wardrobe and not her political skills and positions.

Wow...maybe in publishing these letters the WaPo is showing us the paper recognizes it should focus on substance and not style.

Of course, it helps that Pelosi is a Democrat. I am sure once a GOP candidate attracts their attention with fashion stylings good or bad that they can make fun of, they will be back to their old tricks.

Anything for an Edge

I had always heard that Bo Schembechler would do anything for an edge against Ohio State, but I thought he would draw the line at death.

Understand, I am not a Big Ten guy. I am born and bred to the ACC clubhouse, and I blame Bo and Woody for that. Those two guys made the game boring, plus their hoopsters often seemed more like thugs than players. The way that Woody went out, slugging a Clemson player on the sidelines during the 1978 Gator Bowl, just made the preference more clear.

Bo Schembechler was different, and that is what makes his death yesterday at 77 different. Gruff but articulate, he never lost his temper or his cool under fire, moved to AD after 21 years as Wolverine gridiron coach, and left his mark on the University of Michigan and the state of Michigan in a way that few educators-yep, I use the word educator-have done. His graduation rate was high, and he tolerated no funny business as AD. I mourn his passing.

His death on the eve of the biggest college football game of this season surely will give an emotional lift to the wolverines. While he hated Ohio State, and always sought an edge, I thought there would be a limit to how far he would go. Maybe not...

However, I have never worn the Wolverine colors or bled for the maize and blue, so I leave the final word to a friend of mine who grew up in Ann Arbor and was a scholarship athelete at Michigan. Yesterday I emailed him my condolences over Bo's death, and here is his reply:

"I feel a bit guilty. I was talking to my buddy Todd when Bo was in the hospital and I said, tongue-in-cheek, why can't he hurry up and die so we can go out there and win one for Bo on Saturday.

In the words of Patton (George C. Scott) I pity those bastards...by God I do. We're not just going to kill 'em, we're going to murder them by the bushel. We're going to grease the treads of our tanks with their guts. We're going to grab the buckeye by the tail (yeah, Huns don't have tails either) and we're going to kick him in the ass... Bo always seemed like Patton to me, our field general.

The Washington Post even mentioned his Pattonesque dismissal of Bill Frieder, "A Michigan man will coach Michigan, not an Arizona State man." The image of him presiding over a crowd of Michigan students from the balcony of a fraternity, the night before the Ohio State game, and of him explaining why would beat Ohio State just brings tears to my eyes, "because we're Michigan." I loved that son of a bitch."

Now as I said, I am an ACC man. But just this once...

Go Michigan! Hail to the Victors!

Just When I Thought Things Would be Civil

The WaPo reports that Speaker Presumptive Pelosi is trying to strong arm democrats into voting for Murtha for Majority Leader. Democrats are angered that Pelosi forces are allegedly urging folks who have committed to Hoyer to vote for Murtha, noting "it's a secret ballot". Committee appointments

Many are upset that Murtha, with his questionable ethics past, was recently heard demeaning the Democrats legislative ethics package that ultimately he will be in charge of getting passed.

In other news, that Tower of Ethics Charles Rangel (D-NY), fresh from insulting the State of Mississippi, now says his extensive praise for Hoyer in a recent interview was not really an endorsement.

As I noted previously, Pelosi's support of Murtha speaks highly of her sense of loyalty (or of her hatred of Steny Hoyer). However, the manner by which she has evidenced that support has been ham handed, and will apparently guarantee bad feelings one way or the other. As Robert Novak suggested:

This is a no-win situation for Pelosi. If Murtha wins today, she will be accused of personal vindictiveness in derailing Hoyer, who is more popular in the caucus and better qualified for leadership. If Murtha loses, as is much more probable, she will be seen as bumbling her first attempt to lead the new Democratic majority. Pelosi could have avoided this dilemma by standing aside as Newt Gingrich, then the presumptive speaker, did when he voted for his ally Robert Walker as majority whip but did not ask members to oppose Tom DeLay.

Pelosi's mistake confirms long-standing, privately held Democratic apprehension about her abilities. Such concerns do not reflect the Republican indictment of her as a reflexive San Francisco liberal. Some of her most trenchant congressional critics are on the left wing of the party. These colleagues worry that her decision making may be distorted by personal considerations.

And all this is before you get into the matters of Alcee Hastings and Jane Harman.

Pelosi is a Democrat, but her initial moves seem to be spreading discord and confusion among her troops and could benefit the GOP...which does not speak well in the short term of her ability to lead the congressional party.

A Few Considerations Prior to the Vote for Leader

A few things to share prior to the vote for Democratic Leader of the House of Representatives...

Steny Hoyer is a better choice for the Democrats and for the country. His attributes were ably laid out in an endorsement by the Washington Post. The ethics case against Jack Murtha is capably described by Ruth Marcus. Jack Murtha will create a far more partisan atmosphere in the House than will Hoyer, and will create a tone that is contrary to all that Pelosi and Reid has laid out to date.

Now I am a sucker for an amazing success story, and Hoyer's is unique. He was the Boy Wonder of Maryland Politics, elected to the State Senate at the age of 27 and President of the Senate by age 35. He joined the Blair Lee ticket in 1978, but was defeated in the Democratic primary. All seemed done...until US Rep. Gladys Spellman fell into an incapacitating heart attack shortly before the 1980 general election, at which she won easy reelection and then resigned shortly thereafter. Hoyer won the nomination for the seat in a crowded field, and then won the seat...where he has stayed ever since. Not a logical reason to pull for him, but there it is.

Now some call the Murtha choice a gamble. I think it is a win-win for her. If Murtha wins, she has her pal by her side. If he loses, she has demonstrated unshakeable loyalty to her friends, which will serve her well in future congressional negotiations.

I think the key to being a good Speaker of the House is to realize you are not just a national leader, but effectively the mayor of a small town full of powerful people, and you have to keep your people happy. Nancy Pelosi is well schooled in the needs of being a mayor. Her father Tommy D'Alesandro was a congressman (MD-3) and the Mayor of Baltimore. She knows you have to reward those who help you, because then they will help you again...not to different from a mayor making sure his supporters get jobs.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Democrats Wishful Thinking about Wolf

It seems that Democrats have transitioned from supreme confidence they could beat Frank Wolf in Virginia 10 to engaging in some supremely silly wishful thinking.

A story appeared at the Swing State Project diary, which then got picked up by the Daily Kos, which lead to a WTF? type of post at the Richmond War Room.

Someone has the idea that Congressman Wolf is on the verge of retirement, and lists Virginia 10 as a possible democratic pickup as a result.

H,mmm...there is a term for this...wait...it's coming to me...wait for it...

Oh, yeah! It is called Wishful Thinking!

Having just won a very strong victory against a well funded opponent in a heavily democratic year, one would not likely think of Congressman Wolf as a likely retiree. In a lengthy discussion in a Raising Kaine diary it was conceded even by democratic partisans that Wolf is a difficult opponent because he is clean as a hounds tooth and great with constituent service, and that the seat is likely his until he retires...which is not the same thing as saying he is about to retire!

I understand why they think Dennis Hastert will retire. He is in the minority, and as a result is no longer Speaker of the House. He chosen not to run for GOP Leader in the new session, and has really shown no passion for any issue beyond the accumulation of GOP power. Hastert retire? Good call.

Congressman Wolf is cut from a different bolt of cloth.

A)In the minority? So what? He spent the first half of his time in Congress in the minority.
B) Issues involvement? His passion for human rights is real and unquenchable. His introduction of a bipartisan "Iraq solution" commission is indicative of a man who is in office to find solutions...and who can best find those solutions by staying in office.
C)Intangibles You have got to want to serve in public office. The intrusions into your public life and the personal sacrifices that occur mean that you cannot be an effective elected official unless you want to be there. Frank Wolf has said numerous times it was his childhood ambition to serve in Congress. He has called it his "dream job". He has never once shown an interest in running for statewide office-he holds the office he wants to hold.

Call me crazy, but this does not sound to me like a man who will be retiring any time soon.

Word of Warning to Blogger Users...

Being one who likes to try the latest and greatest, I jumped onto the Blogger beta option...and it stinks.

My advice...SAVE YOURSELF!!!!!

If you use Blogger, and have not changed over, don't. Wait. Save yourselves, and stick with the current version while Blogger uses maroons like moi to iron out changes.

I’m the Happiest Girl in the Whole USA!

Russ Feingold, Democratic US Senator from Wisconsin, has announced he will not seek the democratic nod for president in 2008.

Amidst the stunned silence of liberals across the country one could hear distinctly the lyrics of Donna Fargo emanating from Chappaqua, NY.

Why? Because Feingold’s w/d puts Hillary that much closer to an early nomination win in 2008.

Feingold is a true liberal, and his presence in the race was at present the only liberal presence in the field. In a 11.12.2006 article handicapping the field Joe Trippi called Feingold “The One to Watch” ,

"Perhaps the most authentic candidate, the senator from Wisconsin has a deep connection to the grass roots and is a favorite of the party's progressive wing. If President Bush stays stubborn on Iraq and the rest of the field plays it safe, Feingold could get very hot".

But not now...

What was most telling about the article and the field is that there is no one in his list of ten likely candidates who is clearly and obviously to the left of Hillary C. Such a candidate could potentially force her to move to the left on some issues, which would move her away from the critical center. Meanwhile, everyone else who is at present a reasonable contender is no more liberal than Senator Clinton, and many are more conservative.

So what, you might say?

There are two key factors that make the Feingold withdrawal important:

1. A massively front end loaded Democratic nominating process, and
2. Bwana’s Champions Theory of Nominations

The first item is self explanatory…the more front end loaded the process, the less time and opportunity exists for a candidate to develop recognition and support and gradually build momentum. Instead, a huge edge goes to the candidate who comes into the race with the big rep and big resources. Edge: Hillary

The second is where Bwana's Theory comes into play.

Last June I explained my Champions Theory. While not as complex as a Stephen Hawkings Unified Theory, it is perhaps more understandable. My theory is:

in any nominating contest there are ultimately two factions who choose a representative, and the final contest for the nomination is between the two champions. Each faction may have multiple sub-factions, in which case the process takes longer as each sub-faction chooses a winner, then those winners duke it out to see who goes to the finals.

The sooner a champion is chosen, the more time that individual has to campaign beyond the base and maximize their chances of winning.

Yes, I am sure there is a better term than this used in the realm of Game Theory, and if anyone knows that term please let me know.

This theory originally worked to Hillary’s detriment. When Mark Warner left the race, it removed a strong candidate from the moderate conservative faction, making it more likely that the final champion would be found faster, and that person would be the first to be able to expand beyond their faction’s base.

Now, it works in her favor.

If Hillary has no opposition to her left, then she can readily claim the center/left of center turf without serious opposition. The faster she does this, with the built in advantages of money and contacts, etc., plus the front end loaded schedule, the more likely she is to be able to wrap up the nomination before serious opposition to her right has a chance to coalesce behind a moderate-conservative alternative...and that is why the Feingold withdrawal has Hillary humming a Donna F tune.

I suspect that both GOP and Democrats will choose their nominee fairly early in 2008, and that in the absence of another liberal/progressive force joining the Dem field, Feingold's withdrawal may ultimately prove to be the critical stone in nailing down the nomination for Senator Hillary Clinton.

...and the Leadership Fertilizer Hits the Windmill!

With the elections done, one might have thought that the only excitement to be encountered between now and the swearing in of the new congress is fighting the mall crowds during Christmas shopping season.

Thank goodness for those crazy California liberals to keep things interesting!

Speaker presumptive Nancy Pelosi (CA) has endorsed Jack Murtha (PA) for Majority Leader over Steny Hoyer (MD). You may recall Pelosi defeated Hoyer for Democratic Leader four years ago.
Hoyer responded:

"Nancy told me some time ago that she would personally support Jack," Hoyer said. "I respect her decision, as the two are very close. I am grateful for the support I have from my colleagues, and have the majority of the caucus supporting me. I look forward to working with Speaker Pelosi as majority leader."

Hoyer seems to have amassed significant support, and his backers note the letter is a letter of personal intent and not a letter asking members to support Murtha.

***But why put out such a letter if she is not actively pushing for Murtha?
***If it really is the case that that this is just a favor for an old friend, is Pelosi really savvy enough to be Speaker?
***If Hoyer has decisive support, what is the benefit of Pelosi stating publicly she will not be supporting him?
***Is this some type of in-house move that will cause a fast shift of support to the Murtha column?

Fasten your seatbelts, looks like it is going to be a bumpy ride!

George Allen-What the Future Holds...

Rust never sleeps, and neither does political prognostication...

George Allen has conceded, and at first glance his political prospects are in a shambles.

However, I have a hunch he is in St. Barton's mode, as related in the old verse:

From: St. Barton's Ode

‘Fight on, my men!’ says Sir Andrew Barton,
‘I am hurt, but I am not slain;
I’le lay me downe and bleed a-while,
And then I’le rise and fight again.

http://www.bartleby.com/243/130.htmlStanza LXVI

With Tom Davis in the wings, fresh off a successful reelection effort and potentially offering the GOP the NoVA antidote they need, it is likely too much to think of George Allen running in 2008 in the event of a John Warner retirement.

However, in six years Allen will be the same age as Jim Webb is now. Six years to burnish his reputation. Six years to raise money for candidates across Virginia, where he clearly still has enormous support.

I suggest that is what is going to happen...save your Allen stuff, because 2012 is right around the corner.

Challenge Us

In the wake of The Rout (thank you Dick Armey), GOP types in Virginia and across the country are seeking that magic juju that will make all the bad things go away and put them back on the road to victory.

A lengthy list of Virginia bloggers are calling for the head of RPV chairman Kate Obenshain Griffin in the wake of statewide losses in 2005 and 2006. My colleagues at Mason Conservative, Bearing Drift, BVBL, Elephant Ears, and Too Conservative are clearly willing to head up this auto-da-fe.

In comments on other boards there have been comments that the GOP just needs to nominate candidates that are a little less conservative...in a post at elephant ears Jack Landers (of Rule .303 fame) suggested on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being ultra conservative, nominate 4's instead of 5's.

You folks have it wrong. You see, if this election is one that the GOP lost more than the Democrats won, then both sides are lacking something important. Whack a leader, try to moderate...these ideas have been tried before and not always successfully. I suggest, to quote Abraham Lincoln, that "the dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present". .

Mr. Lincoln is again right. the old nostrums are inadequate to the complex world we live in. As it happens, it is a lot simpler than that.

We need to be challenged.

We need candidates who understand they need to lead, and personify what Americans want. Not what they want to hear, but what they need to hear. Not the language that is calculated to win votes, but the language that will win hearts and minds. We cannot bring back Ronald Reagan, but we need someone who, like the Gipper, recognizes what is great about our people and gives it voice.

Americans are optimists. We belive we can succeed. It is part of our DNA, and the reason why this country is the preferred destination of everyone in the world who wants to get ahead and have a better life. We believe we can do bizarre things like conquor a continent, cure disease, better the world with industrial invention. We accept great challenges -and we do it no matter how difficult the task. Challenge us to change the world, and we will follow.

Republican, Democrat, liberal, conservative. These are just labels, words with meanings that can change. What is needed are leaders who challenge us, who demand that we follow "the better angels of our nature" and not fall into the slimy, soul sucking pit of special interests and the ultimately unsatisfying shark pit of wedge issues.

Offer us direction. Offer us inspiration. Offer us integrity and conviction, and the people will respond. Speak to us as if we were neighbors and not members of a demographic group. Challenge us to do better by veing better, and we will respond. Challenge us to face the future with vigor and excitement, and we will respond. Challenge us, don't patronize us, and we will respond.

We are the children of liberty, the descendants of folks who came to this country in first class and in steerage, in yachts and in row boats, in planes, trains, and automobiles, who wanted a better life and came here to make it happen.

This is not about position papers, focus groups, left, right, red, blue. It is about finding candidates who are willing to speak from the heart with conviction and a clear voice about things that matter to us and affect our lives.

Look at us and speak to and for us-do not look by us and speak about us.
Challenge us-don't coddle us.
Raise the light of liberty and lead us-don't raise the spectre of hatred and racism.
Lead us up the hill, and not into the mud pit.

It is really simple.

Challenge us. Challenge us to work together and not apart. Challenge us to be better than we are, to be all we can be and accomplish all we can do.

It can be done, and the party who will do this will cause a realignment that is based not on geography but in hope, a hope that takes root in the heart and in the head.

CHALLENGE US!

As a Renaissance Man I Prize Diversity...

...in thought and action. As such I can not only speak jive and redneck, but also have friends on all sides of the partisan divide.

One such pal is near out and out fellow traveling lefty in Va-8 who has started a new political blog notmariocuomo.blogspot.com.

I don't always agree with what he says-he thinks Mario Cuomo is the greatest living politico from the Empire State, while I say it's Rudy Giuliani-but what he says he always says well.

Mosey over and take a gander...

Words of Wisdom...

In the wake of the GOP losses there will be lots of fingerpointing in the weeks ahead...however, I find myself agreeing with Tom Coburn, GOP Senator from Oklahoma, and his analysis of the recent election and future political paths for both parties:

"Some have said that Republicans and Democrats now need to govern from the middle. I disagree,...We do not need to govern from the center as much as we need to govern from conscience. When politicians have the courage to argue their convictions and lose their political lives in an honest battle of ideas, the best policies will prevail."

"The American people do want civility, but they also want real debate. Civility does not mean an absence of conflict, but a return of honor and dignity in our politics. Voters are bored and tired of partisan role playing in Washington. ...One of the great paradoxes in politics is that governing to maintain power is the surest way to lose it. Republicans have the ideas to solve our greatest challenges. If we focus on ideas, our majority status will take care of itself."

Exactly!

Recount Clarification-Conditions

The conditions for a recount in Virginia have been stated and misstated quite a bit recently, so let me set the record straight:

1. Recount option opens up after the official canvas of the voting precincts is completed and a result announced.
2. There are no automatic recounts
3. A candidate who loses an election by 1% or less of the votes cast in his/her election can request a recount.
4. If the margin is less than 1/2 of 1% of the vote, the state and localities pick up the cost of the recount, otherwise the requesting candidate picks up the charge.

Given how much movement we saw last year in the McDonnell-Deeds recount, I have to think Allen could leave office gracefully if he passed on a recount. However, given that Allen's political career is likely over in the wake of this defeat, he also has nothing to lose...so I fully expect him to request a recount.

Random Thoughts: A Pat on My Back, Winners and Losers, and No Recount

After a long night of following returns, I am off to DC for the annual Red Hat GUC, and then to Manassas, so I thought I would offer a few random thoughts on the events of the past week and on last night's results.

Two tough years: The Democrats have taken both houses of Congress. I forsee gridlock. This is the natural result of winning elections through wedge issues and appealing to the base without trying to gain wider support.

I was right, Part 1: My predictions rang true on the elections yesterday, and I suggest that the boys over at Richmond War Room owe Dan Scandling and the Frank Wolf a huge "OOOOOOOPS" for their repeated suggestions the Wolf effort was a stealth campaign, that they were overconfident, etc. Congressman Wolf exceeded my predicted 56%, Feder barely broke 40%, and that despite likely outspending Wolf. The Wolf campaign ran smart, they ran silent, they ran deep, and like the deadly subs in that referenced movie they put numerous torpedos in the good ship Feder with devestating results.

I was right, Part 2: I predicted in September that a losing Allen campaign might help GOP incumbents in Virginia:

There is a reason why Congress as a whole keeps getting low marks in public polling but the membership doesn't turn over. While there are the benefits of incumbency and partisan redistricting, I bet there are a lot of folks who like their congressman while being unhappy with the instution. I also suspect that there are folks out there who want a way to register their disapproval of the Bush administration while supporting their congressman (who they like, respect, etc.) A split ticket-vote Democrat in the Senate election, GOP in the House election-would allow them to do that...and the bad press for Allen will continue to make that option very palatable to a lot of folks.

Looks like I got that one right.

Congrats to: Jackson Miller and Corey Stewart, who won their races for Delegate and Board Chair in Prince William County, and can now prepare to run for reelection in 11/2007.

Kudos to: Jeanette Rishell and Andrew Hurst, who fought strong campaigns and finished much better than I expected.

Big winner Yesterday: Hillary Clinton. She wins reelection as US Senator, while the Dems take both houses of congress. After two years of gridlock, where Bush veto's numerous democratic legislative initiatives, she can run for President in 2008 as a uniter who can move us beyond partisan gridlock.

Big Loser: George Allen and Ned LaMont

Big Winners, VA: All those who won, but especially Jim Webb and Thelma Drake. Also Lowell Feld and Ben Tribbet who played huge roles (respectively) in (a) getting Webb into the field an (b) spreading the word of Allen's various missteps, and in doing so took George Allen from presidential hopeful to private citizen.

Be Careful what you write: I noted earlier this week how several PWCo Democratic bloggers took flight on an anonymous report that GOP Internals showed Corey Stewart losing to Sharon Pandak by 7 points...which somehow turned into an 8 point Stewart win by election night. Doesn't matter whether you are MSM or a blogger, anonymous sources-especially ones with partisan motives-will burn you!

Well Intentioned advice for George Allen: You are down by 8000 votes, and that gap is likely to get larger. Creigh Deeds only made up about two dozen votes in his recount against Bob McDonnell. If the margin does not narrow significantly when all the precincts come in, you should consider declining a recount unless you have significant evidence of voting irregularities that would change the result.

More later, after I have the chance to absorb the results.

Start Your Engines!

It is now 11:01 PM EST, and the polls on the Left Coast have just closed.

The 2008 Presidential Campaign begins NOW.

Wolf, Davis over the top...

CNN has projected both Tom Davis and Frank Wolf as winners in their races. Tom Davis is being pressed more by Andy Hurst than I expected (55%-43%), and Frank Wolf is scoring much higher than the blogosphere projected (57%-41%-1%-1%).

Allen and Webb still too close to call...

Results Coming in...

...on CNN. the numbers seem to be getting to CNN faster than the SBE page.

At least that is the case as of 8PM...

General Predictions for Today and the months ahead…

The polls are open, and will join the blog crowd and offer my predictions...

Virginia 2-Drake wins with 51% of the vote. I have absolutely no contact with this district, so I am whistling in the wind here. But I am betting that although the Kellam influence goes deep, dodging the debates will come back to hurt him. On the other hand, if Kellam can win this, then immediately consider him to be on the short list of Democrats to run for a potential open Virginia US Senate seat in 2008...more on that later.

Virginia 8-The embarrassing reign of Jim Moran will continue. I understand that the eighth was cut to be a democratic district, but can’t the Democrats find someone a candidate who is not a walking embarrassment?

Virginia 10- Frank Wolf will win this race, and will win by a margin that surprises the vast majority of the blogosphere (i.e., most bloggers seem to have him getting below 55%). Congressman Wolf will get at least 56% of the vote, and perhaps higher. Why do I say that? Not only does he have a superior record to run on, not only is the recognition of his strong service recognized across the district and validated by the unbroken string of endorsements from the Potomac News and Manassas Journal Messenger in the east to the Winchester Star in the west, not only has he avoided being swept away by the tsunami of out of state money, but he has 26 years of exceptionally strong constituent service to run on.

The big shock here will be that despite national trends, huge amounts of out-of-state money coming in for Democrat Judy Feder, changing demographics in the district, GOP losses in Va HOD races in 2005 and a special state senate election in 2006, plus a big Kaine win in 2005, Wolf will not only win the district by a wider than expected margin, but he will carry his portions of Fairfax and Loudoun counties and will make for an early victory party...

Virginia 11-Tom Davis defeats Andrew Hurst with 60% of the vote, sending Davis to prepare for a possible Senate run in 2008 and Hurst in search of a State house or supervisor race. I have my doubts that Hurst will be able to claim the 2008 democratic nomination if Davis runs for the Senate with any greater ease than Ken Longmeyer was able to get his rematch this year. Too many Democratic pols want to go to Congress, and folks like Gerry Connolly will push Hurst aside despite his vigorous campaign this year.

Marriage Amendment-this proposal loses 55%-45%

Virginia US Senate-I have Webb with 50%, Allen 49%, Parker 1%, but I am torn.

Why?

Normally, one would think that an incumbent who is not at 50% in polls immediately before Election Day is in trouble, as undecided’s will break away from the status quo. However, it would seem that Webb should have put this away weeks ago. Macaca, deer heads, nooses, Confederate flags, bad reaction to discovery of jewish ancestry, allegations of racism against Allen...with all this and more out there, Webb should have gone over 50% some time back. One would think that if the character stuff that has been thrown at Allen was going to stick, it would have stuck and sunk him by now.

Given the general state of the nation and discontent with the GOP, I pick Webb to win...but would not be surprised if Allen scores what at this point would be a come from behind victory.

Polls are Open...

...and months of effort come down to the next thirteen hours.

Or, as my late West Virginia cousin Claren Bailey used to say" Vote early, vote often!"

Of course, this was usually after a late night spent taking names off of tombstones so they too could enjoy the suffrage!

So even though the Commonwealth has taken great efforts to ensure that it is one ballot per customer this year, and whatever your partisan affections and affectations, remember to go to the polls and cast a ballot.

It is a simple act, but the fact that you can vote for the candidate of your choice to decide the affairs of this country is a fundamental freedom and opportunity that makes this the greatest country on earth. Don't waste it-VOTE!

In Virginia’s 50th, Has Bruce Roemmelt Given up the Fight?????

As has been said elsewhere, "logic and linkages…"

I’ve never met Bruce Roehmelt. He seems like a nice enough guy, and I have the utmost respect for anyone who has picked up a weapon and stood a post. In fact, it appears he was in Southeast Asia about the same time as my father-in-law, father of SWMBO. Bruce is certainly devoted to his friends and to his causes, and will fight to the last ditch as long as there existed any chance of them winning.

Needless to say, when I saw his post earlier today claiming Jackson Miller would vote "No" on the marriage amendment, I was confused. All indications are that Miller is voting "Yes", and Bruce R. does not seem like one of those folks who believe that members of any denomination must blindly follow in lockstep the all the tenets of their faith...can you imagine Bruce saying a Catholic politico must be Pro-Life? Why would he assume that Miller would not follow his own mind?

I knew something must be up...and then it came to me---Bruce has given up the ghost in the 50th House District election.

Why this conclusion? Here goes my reasoning...

*Bruce is a fierce fighter;

*Bruce is a fierce supporter of Jeanette Rishell in her campaign against Jackson Miller in the special election for the VA-50 House of Delegates seat;

*Bruce has energetically spoken up for the candidates of his choice this election cycle;

*Bruce seems like the type who will fight with all his might until there is no chance of winning;

*Bruce has to know so many of this year's races are extremely close, and will rise or fall on GOTV

*It has been claimed that the Va-50 race is one of those races

*Yet at the 11th hour, Bruce is spending time coming up with a post-likely an attempt at humor-making claims about how Jackson Miller will vote regarding a constitutional amendment instead of spending that time working to elect his candidates.

Why? Why waste time like that?

He must have decided his folks have no chance of winning, especially Ms. Rishell.

And since they have no chance of winning, why waste time with more campaigning? Better to spend the time luring folks in with the promise of a big announcement, then pull off an early November "April Fool" joke by making an assertion about Rishell's opponent that no one will believe.

Could all this be true?

So to Bruce R I say, thanks. First the miraculous ‘Skins victory and now this. What a great first indicator of a Miller win on 11.7.2006.

And remember...imitation is the most sincere form of flattery! ;-)

PW Dem Blogers show why Blogs are Unreliable

One of the real issues with blogs both by the MSM and the public in general is that blogs are not held to the same rules and regs regarding accuracy as the MSM.

Two blog postings today out of PWCo show why that mistrust is well founded.

This AM as I cycled through the normal blogs, I saw that on 11.4.2006 the Howling Latina howled out (and what else would she do?)that a GOP internal polling showed Sharon Pandak leading in the PWCo Supervisor special election. She cited Craig Vitter's post as proof.

So I follow the link over to the primary posting at Craig's Musings, where Craig in the comments says he got the information from:

"I picked this up from an anonymous source. I checked around a bit last night before posting with other sources that told me they had heard rumors to the same effect in the past week about the GOP poll."

So, Craig-who in the last month has gone deep in the hole for all Democratic Party candidates-got information from an anonymous source, which he then verfied through other anonymous sources, and then posts as the gospel truth.

This is the nature of blogs, and the problem with blogs. Anyone can post anything they want, and the fact that the post is in electronic print suddenly gives it credence. If any newspaper, radio, and/or television station in the MSM printed such information and tried to pass it off as substantive news, they would lose whatever credibility they might have.

It is one thing to offer an opinion on a matter-based on whatever you want to cite. It is another thing-and a sad one at that-to try to pass off that opinion as fact while wrapping it in anonymous sources to give it some degree of legitimacy.

Update: Apparently Craig's source had the percentage right and the candidates wrong-Stewart over Pandak 53%-46%

Frank Wolf Endorsements Continue Unabated

Having already been endorsed by papers across the 10th district, Congressman Frank Wolf today received the endorsement of the Winchester Star.

This gives Mr. Wolf a near unchecked string of newspaper endorsements across the 10th District, something that has to bode well for election day.

My colleagues the Richmond War Room have offered continuous commentary on this campaign, and have predicted that Wolf will score no higher than 52%.
I beleve they have underestimated what they insist on calling the Wolf "Stealth Campaign", and suggest that Frank Wolf will score at 56% or more.

I step away for a few days...

...and the world goes barmy!

I will not go into details on links and such, as this is more summary of known events than analysis of the new. Nonetheless, I take four days away to take care of kids birthday parties and pressing family bidness, and look what happens...

a) George Allen poll numbers tank, and the Allen campaign starts to pray for rain on election day.

b) Network television starts in the 10th. Judy Feder, who has been going negative since July, complains that Congressman Frank Wolf's television advertisements are negative-and then puts up her own attack ads that do not accurately source the claims in her commercial.

c) A Michael Moore wannabe jumps in Senator Allen's face, and gets removed. Depending on your point of view, this is either police state extremism (D) OR proof of democratic anger and insanity (R) OR evidence that all bloggers are crazy at heart (SWMBO) OR evidence that some people are so determined to get attention they will act in the most bizarre fashion possible so they can have their fifteen minutes of fame ( Reality TV view of the world).

d) Just when you thought the world was safe from John Kerry's oratorical malaprops, he cooks up another one. I am glad Senator Kerry is kept gainfully employed by the voters of Massachusetts, as he clearly would starve on the comedy circuit.

e) And lets not forget fisticuffs on the set of Greys Anatomy, which apparently leads to an actor on the show coming out of the closet.

CRAZY, MAN, JUST CRAZY!!