Google Bombing, continued

Apparently I am not alone in noticing the great Google Bombing Plot planned for Election Day 2006.

More thoughts on Obama...

The subject of a Barack Obama candidacy in 2008 has been mentioned briefly here at RR and again over at Phyillis Randall's blog.

Now Charles Krauthammer offers his view in the WaPo.

CK suggests an Obama run in 2008 is a win/win/win, and offers the following scenarios, where Obama would:

A) Win the nomination and presidency, OR
B) Loses the nomination but gets the VP nod and the Dems win, which sets him up for 2016, OR
C) Loses the nomination, gets the VP nod and the Dems lose, which sets him up for 2012.

For a moment, assume Obama runs and is not nominated for the Presidency. The biggest advantages to this scenario are experience and candidate queueing. Obama's biggest experience gap is in foreign policy, something that will be remedied by a term or two as VP. Plus, a good showing as a nominee candidate moves him to the front of the candidate queue for the next open democratic presidential slot, be that from the VP position or as a sitting US Senator.

CK suggests that right now Obama is hot, hip, and happening. He must strike when the iron is hot. As I have noted before, in politics sometimes you have to not when you want to, but when the opening presents itself...and 2008 will be the first completely open year since 1952, with neither an incumbent president running for reelection nor a sitting VP going for the top spot himself.

The ultimate point here is that Obama has more to gain from running-even if he loses-than by not running IF his ultimate goals is the White House.

...and more endorsements for Wolf, Webb, Davis, and Moran

I noted yesterday that the Loudoun Connection had endorsed James Webb and Frank Wolf in their respective races. It actually went farther than that...it was the entire Connection paper chain (with papers in Loudoun, Fauquier, Clarke, Prince William, and Fairfax Counties) that endorsed both candidates, plus in other parts of their readership the Connection also endorsed congressional incumbents Tom Davis and Jim Moran.

The Time Community newspaper paper chain, with papers in Fauquier, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Clarke counties, has begun its endorsements. Its papers in Fauquier, Loudoun, and Fairfaxendorsed both Webb and Wolf, plus incumbents Davis and Moran.

Democrats set to GoogleBomb 2006 Election

WebPronews.com reports that Democratic supporters have made plans to GoogleBomb Republicans in the run-up to the 2006 elections. Targets in Virginia include George Allen, Thelma Drake, and Frank Wolf.

Chris Bowers of My Direct Democracy announced plans on his web page on October 22, with a Daily Kos cross post that has already drawn over 350 responses.

Why do this? As described in the DailyKos postings:

"The idea is to associate a particular term (in this case, a candidate's name) with a particular webpage (in this case, a news article with unfavorable facts about the candidate) and increase the web traffic linking the term and the page so that the web page turns up in the top-ranked results whenever the term is Googled."

A fuller description of the process can be found here and
here. For a discussion of the "miserable failure" GoogleBombs in the 2004 presidential campaigns go here.

The logic behind this effort is that many voters will go web searching in the last days of a campaign to get information on candidates. Bowers' idea is to create Google Bombs that link these candidates with the worst articles abotu them from non-partisan sources.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Of course, this seems to be another example of a practice that if done by the GOP is is linked to voter supression or misinformation, but if done by Democrats it is considered clever.

WaPo at it Again...

Desparate for a new way to throw mud at George Allen in the absence of any mud to throw, the WaPo returns to its old favorite, the slanted news story.

The folks over at From on High have it about right.

If the James Webb campaign had purchased a full page of advertising in the Post (which is about the print space it would takes to show this article), how much would that cost? The real $$ total of campaign funds spent by Webb will never be accurate until some type of in-kind contribution from the WaPo is added.

Rush Limbaugh is an ASS-Medically speaking, of course

The Washington Post reports that actor Michael J. Fox, in the throes of a long struggle with Parkinson’s Disease, is campaigning for Democratic Party candidates this year, and Rush Limbaugh doesn't like it.

Fox recently cut advertisements in support of embryonic stem cell research and against candidates who oppose it.

Relying on his vast medical knowledge and training, talk show host Rush Mr. Limbaugh came out swinging:

"He is exaggerating the effects of the disease," Limbaugh told listeners. "He's moving all around and shaking and it's purely an act. . . . This is really shameless of Michael J. Fox. Either he didn't take his medication or he's acting."

To quote Bugs Bunny, “what an imbesile [sic], what an ultra maroon.”

Expert opinion suggested that Mr. Limbaugh’s knowledge of modern medicine is not as great as implies.

"Anyone who knows the disease well would regard [Fox's] movement as classic severe Parkinson's disease," said Elaine Richman, a neuroscientist in Baltimore who co-wrote Parkinson's Disease and the Family. "Any other interpretation is misinformed."

Limbaugh later reluctantly apologized via a web page transcript…:

“Now people are telling me they have seen Michael J. Fox in interviews and he does appear the same way in the interviews as he does in this commercial," … "All right then, I stand corrected. . . . So I will bigly, hugely admit that I was wrong, and I will apologize to Michael J. Fox, if I am wrong in characterizing his behavior on this commercial as an act."

…but changed his focus, saying :

"Michael J. Fox is allowing his illness to be exploited and in the process is shilling for a Democratic politician."

Unsurprisingly, Mr. Limbaugh’s medicinal knowledge is limited to matters regarding prescription medicine, and clearly not to be influenced by common sense. It is not unusual for Mr. Limbaugh to presuppose his own omniscience on political matters big and small. However, one would think that perhaps Mr. Limbaugh would check with physicians before venturing an opinion outside his experience. Instead he assumes to know what he is talking about, and presumes to judge others, making himself look tres stupido.

Why does this bother me? First, I have enjoyed Mr. Fox's work for years. His talents have afforded me many hours of entertainment, and I am saddened by his condition. Second, politics is not making mud pies. We can advocate for the causes we want within the limits of the law and our abilities and our opportunities. If Rush Limbaugh is angry about these ads it is because he knows they are going to be effective, not because he has concerns about Mr. Fox being "exploited".

I think we should probably pity Mr. Limbaugh, as clearly he is suffering from his own debilitating condition. I imagine the medical term is something:

Assumptive
Stupidity
Syndrome

Unfortunately, in a man of Limbaugh’s years there is normally no treatment. However, he could start by inviting Michael J. Fox on his show, apologizing in person, and then allowing Fox to talk about the effect of Parkinson’s disease and what people can do to help end it.

Reagan 1984-A Bear in the Woods

This AM I join the Richmond War Room in bringing back a classic campaign advertisement...however, this is the amended version. The original ended with the hunter leveling his rifle at the bear.

Wolf and Webb in Loudoun Connection

The Loudoun Connection has made it's Tenth District Endorsements, and they mirror the Washington Post.

The paper endorsed Frank Wolf for the US House:

As a member of Congress, Frank Wolf appears to wake up every day and consider how he can use the power of his office to make the world a better place. He is a man with tremendous empathy and a moral compass. He is an independent thinker who doesn’t let ego get in the way of bringing various sides together to do the right thing.

After 26 years in office, he is if anything more passionate than ever about human rights — working to curb human rights abuses in Darfur and other places around the world. He has traveled to the Sudan repeatedly, working to keep the ongoing atrocities in public view and advocating for action. He has also traveled to Iraq and Afghanistan repeatedly in the past five years.

Wolf is just as passionate about problem solving on a local level.

One of the things that makes Wolf so effective is his ability to listen. He listens to law enforcement officers carefully, often identifying trouble in the works long before anyone else. Examples are his early warnings and funding to help fight gang activity, and his efforts to fight the spread of methamphetamines.

Wolf has worked to contribute to solutions for the region’s traffic congestion, from promoting flextime and telecommuting especially for government workers, to funding for Metro, to thoughtful and incremental approaches such as spot intersection improvements and timing of traffic lights.

Wolf is creative at problem solving, proposing an independent review, the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan 10-member group co-chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker and former congressman Lee Hamilton, which could offer a path to solutions in Iraq that might be acceptable to all sides.

Wolf also worked to establish a similar panel to examine federal spending and tax policies to develop proposals to head off the impending federal budget train wreck.

and James Webb for the US Senate:

There’s no doubt that Jim Webb is not a natural candidate. That’s just one more reason to vote for him for Senate over George Allen.

Webb would make an excellent addition to the Senate, with intellectual capacity and experience to help unravel some of the critical problems that body will face in the coming years.

Recently converting from Republican to Democrat, Webb opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, vigorously and publicly arguing against it in the months before invasion.
But Webb has significant credentials. A former Marine, Webb served in Vietnam, and was awarded the Navy Cross, the Silver Star Medal, two Bronze Star Medals and two Purple Hearts. During the Reagan administration, he served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense of Reserve Affairs and as Secretary of the Navy.

If elected, Webb might be the only senator with a son or daughter serving in combat in Iraq. But Webb does not trumpet his own service or his son’s on the campaign trail, aside from wearing a pair of his son’s used combat boots.

Webb has written nonfiction books and six novels, and while his opponent would seek to make fun of Webb as a “fiction writer,” Webb’s accomplishments show no small amount of intellectual capacity and work ethic.

There are also powerful reasons to vote against George Allen.

Allen’s six years in the Senate lack legislative legacy or accomplishment. While this week he has tried to show that he is not in lockstep with President Bush on Iraq, he lacks ideas for any alternative to the current mess there.

And the past months have brought fresh, visceral evidence of Allen’s racial and ethnic insensitivity, reinforcing decades of racial insensitivity. If you haven’t watched the “macaca” video for yourself, you should. It compounds and confirms concern about Allen’s views, adds to evidence of Allen’s fascination with the Confederate flag and past display of a noose, a symbol of racial hatred and torture, in his office.

Virginia can’t afford racial insensitivity because of its past, and because of its future. History: Virginia’s past economy was built on slavery, and Virginia was a haven for segregation, closing schools rather than allow integration even into the early '60s. Future: Virginia is an increasingly diverse state, and its future economic and cultural development depends on embracing that diversity.

Now, if one uses a link one typically does not print the whole shebang...but what I found interesting is the Frank Wolf endorsement is completely pro Wolf, full of what he has accomplished and what he can do in the future. The Webb endorsement is half about why vote for Webb and half why one should not vote for Allen.

It boggles the mind...six months ago George Allen was in the tall cotton on a relatively short list of folks who could be the next President of the USA-now he is in the weeds with a great deal of uncertainty about his future.

Color Me Surprised...

In a move I never saw coming, the Washington Post today endorsedBob Ehrlich for reelection as Governor of Maryland.

Now I need to clean up the coffee I spilled when I read the endorsement...

Turnabout...

During my coffee break meanderings I found a series of August 2006 postings to the Carpetbagger blog with a discussion of whether Joe Lieberman would caucus with the Democrats if he were elected as an independent.

What I found interesting was the vehemence with which these folks denounced Lieberman, how he is a conservative lapdog, and how he would caucus with whichever party made him the best deal. Just reading the posts made the paint on my office walls curl up.

I cannot but wonder how these same posters reacted five years ago when Jim Jeffords announced he was becoming an Independent...and leaving the GOP to caucus with the Democrats-which just happened to be enough tilt to move the Dems into the majority in the Senate and give Jeffords better committee assignments.

Same question, different reactions...

I guess in politics the some issues occur repeatedly and the certain responses are almost reflexively produced. Who says them is just a question of whose ox is getting gored.

Did You Hear the One about the Mason-Dixon Poll?

At 2000 hours today the latest Mason Dixon poll dropped with Allen at 47% and Webb at 43%.

I will tell you I don't know what to make of the results. I did not think there would be so many undecideds left at this point.

At the high view level, it is obviously better to be ahead than behind.

If you do a quick cycle around the blogosphere, you see a couple of things.

Allen supporters are saying this poll shows Webb is stuck, and that despite all the muck thrown at Allen there has been no great movement by Webb.

Webb backers are saying that if an incumbent has not cleared 50% this late in an election, then he is in deep kimche.

I am not persuaded either way, and I keep coming back to two things:

(A) The poll showed 2% going to independent candidate Gail Parker, which means that Webb only has 8% to play with from 4% down...that cannot be the preferred position to be in.

(B) There is a continual refrain going about that everyone knows that the undecided voters will break to the challenger at the end of an election. Generally, I would say that is true.

However, I can tell you one time it didn't happen. When? 1994 Where? Virginia. Ollie North led Chuck Robb going into the late days of that election, and the undecideds broke back toward Senator Robb.

So, don't say it cannot happen, because it can and has.

This is still a GOTV campaign. Gird your loins and unleash the hounds!

Club for Growth President's Bad Timing Undermines Clout

Today Phillip Rodokanakis of the Virginia Club for Growth attacked Congressman Frank Wolf in a piece at Bacons Rebellion. After reading his piece I came away thinking he and his group has a mistaken idea about creating political leverage, and are doomed to life on the political periphery instead of having the clout their libertarian issues should give them.

Mr. Rodokanakis waited until two weeks before the election to take issue with Mr. Wolf as a conservative force. I will leave aside the value of choosing five votes out of the thousands cast over twenty six years in Congress as a viable method of attacking someone's conservative credentials. Two things struck me about the post.

Mr. Rodokanakis is so determined to make headlines he allows himself to be hoodwinked

I cannot speak to all the five issues Rodokanakis is upset about. However, I am familiar with the earmarks vote, which was on a bill that would have attached patrons names to spending bills. Frank Wolf crossed party lines to join the vast majority of Democrats voting against the bill.

Why? Because the bill was a fig leaf that did not address real reform.

This bill was not a law, but a rule that applies only to this Congress and at a point when there would be few appropriations bills sent to the floor. It applies only to appropriations bills and not to revenue bills or floor amendments to appropriation or revenue bills. It was designed solely to give the GOP political cover going into this election, and has no long term impact or value as a way to reform lobbying.

One would think Mr. R would applaud a Congressman who had the political courage to vote against such a bill...instead, he is shortsighted enough to criticize him for short term political points.

Mr. Rodokanakis has not learned about political timing

In his piece Mr. R suggests that if conservatives (i.e., the Club for Growth) don't vote for Wolf in 11/2006 he might pay more attention to them in the next congress. However, bad timing ensures the opposite will happen.

The time to say this was in June, not in October. No self respecting candidate will negotiate with a gun to their head. Late campaign threats create resentment, not compliance. What is more likely is that Wolf will look at the exceptional lack of success of the Club for Growth candidates in last years General Assembly elections, and move on with his campaign plan.

In addition, Mr. R's timing and threat is coming late in an election where by all counts the GOP is going to take a hit. No one will be surpised if GOP candidates totals are down. So, if Mr. Wolf wins with a lower total than he had in 2004, will it be attributed to the hands off attitude suggested by Mr. Rodakanakis or will it be attributed to general discontent with the GOP?

I tend to think it will be the latter.

Twas the time for Mr. Rodakanakis to say that although he had disagreements with Mr. Wolf, they paled in comparison to the vast differences he had with the Democratic nominee. Mr. R should have urged all conservatives to be sure to turn out and vote for Frank Wolf. Then, if the disagreements still exist into the next session of congress, then Mr. R comes out early for a primary opponent.

Mr. Rodakanakis could have scored points by taking the long view both on legislation and on political timing. Instead, he chooses a short term satisfaction that will not benefit him, his group, and relegates them instead to the cold periphery of the political arena, among those who prefer making noise instead of making progress.

Democratic HQ now the Land of Lincoln

For the longest time it seemed that the Democratic Party in the Blue States and the way it is pictured settled either in NYC (Hillary) or SF (Pelosi).

However, at this moment the spotlight is focused on Illinois.

Why?

Consider the recent spate of articles on the presidential prospects of Barack Obama (D-IL), elected in 2004 and apparently on the verge of a candidacy in 2008. I don't know the affect of such a thing, but this could create a Democratic brawl if Hillary Clinton decides to gun for the nomination.

Consider also the attention being given to Rahm Emanuel, Congressman from the City of the Big Shoulders, former Clintonista, and current Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Emanuel is the driving force behind the Democratic surge to take control of the House of Representatives next month.

Students of the Senate know the current wisdom is that a presidential campaign from the Senate must be launched early in one's career so as not to be weighed down by several terms worth of procedural votes. Students of House know that a stellar performance as chairman of either party's campaign committee typically paves the way to bigger things.

I have to wonder, though, with two such large personalities, two men so determined to succeed, what is the likelihood of an Obama-Emanuel struggle down the road? Especially if Obama runs for the Democratic nomination? Will Emanuel back the hometown hero, especially as it might open a Senate seat he could run for? Will Emanuel back the old time heroine, and follow the Clinton's siren call?

We shall seeeeee!

Word of the Day: Bloviate

A discussion broke out on NLS today as to whether bloviate is a word. The blogger generally known as "T" says it isn't a word since he/she cannot find it in Webster's, while teacherken offers a definition found at Merriam Webster online.

Well, "T", the overwhelming weight of evidence indicates it is a word.

The American Heritage Dictionary via Bartleby's also offers a definition; Dictionary.com checks in with a similar take, and onelook.com finds these and ten other online dictionaries/thesaurus that offer definitions.

In fact, it is a word that perhaps offers the ultimate definition of what most folks do on the blogs. The Random House Word of the Day offers a lengthy description of the history of the word. Wes Pruden at the Washington Times uses it frequently. While it had been on the books since 1909, H.L. Mencken gave it significant circulation as using it to describe the oration of Warren G. Harding, putting the word in that special set of political terms we got from the Roaring Twenties, including "booboisie" and "normalcy".

But take it from one who has used the word regularly-be careful when you use it. To the untrained ear, "bloviate" sounds less like a description of boastful oratory and more like some physical condition that one would not wish on one's worst enemy...

Esquire Endorsements-Only Effective GOP Need Apply

Yesterday I received my November 2006 issue of Esquire magazine, and read the article where the magazine endorses in every congressional race this year. In Virginia they picked (page 207):

Senate (*incumbent)/[Unopposed]=no major party opposition

James Webb (D)

House (*incumbent)/[Unopposed]=no major party opposition
1-Jo Ann Davis* (R)
2-Phil Kellam (D)
3-Bobby Scott* (D) [Unopposed]
4-Randy Forbes* (R), Although unopposed, Esquire urged voting for write-in candidates
5-Al Weed (D)
6-Bob Goodlatte* (R) [Unopposed]
7-Jim Nachman (D)
8-Tom O'Donohue (R)
9-Rich Boucher* (D)
10-Frank Wolf* (R)
11-Tom Davis* (R)

There seem to be three types of endorsements.

The alternative has to be better than the incumbent: Esquire came out against various candidates of both parties due to incumbent challenges ranging from ethics to Iraq. Only Kellam in Va 2 received anything near a positive endorsement over an incumbent.

The incumbent reeks: Esquire endorsed anyone over Randy Forbes dues to his "ignorant views"

Keep these folks, because they rock!: Esquire endorsements of J. Davis, Scott, Boucher, T. Davis, and Wolf were all based in positive assessments of what they have accomplished as opposed to the weaknesses of their opponents. Those who have read the endorsements sugggest that the strongest of the Virginia House endorsements went to Frank Wolf in Va-10:

"Frank Wolf is an exemplary representative: genuinely anti-pork, a committed defender of humanrights, and thoughtful-rather than loud-on security issues."

With and endorsement like that, perhaps Esquire would be willing to take on the PR responsibilities for the Wolf campaign...

Words I Never Thought I Would Say...

My Bridgewater College Eagles chances of winning an automatic bid to the NCAA D3 football playoffs is dependent on the preppy boys at Washington and Lee beating the Guilford Quakers later today.

So, and may the good Lord understand I would only do this in the most dire circumstances, I say:

GO GENERALS! BEAT GUILFORD!

Ugh. It's for a good cause, but still...

What Constitutes a Stealth Campaign?

Using the Frank Wolf-Judy Feder campaign as a starting point, the Richmond War Room has emerged from the mineshaft and a self described bout of naked treadmill exercise to spark a discussion about what makes for a good campaign. Not Buck Turgidson asks the question:

What makes a good campaign? Is it possible to run a good campaign without a lot of people seeing it, other than signs and direct mail?

Said another way, does a campaign have to make a lot of noise to sway voters, or can it be done one football game, parade, or civic club at a time?

Given that I was stoked on caffeine yesterday AM, I kicked things off with the following (in part, and to the general topic):

Campaigns are a lot like cars. I have owned flashy cars that attracted attention. They also broke down and spent more time off the road than carrying me places. I also once owned a Chevy Nova that attracted derision for its unstylishness, but was dependable and carried me around successfully for years. Which was better to have for the purpose of transportation?

I think saying a campaign is running under the radar is a highly subjective analysis. When that analysis is done mainly through second and third hand analysis-as happens so often in the blogs-it becomes even more tenuous.

I think good campaigns do win voters one event at a time. It's a combination of marathon and relay race, with the candidate being handed from one voter to the next over a period of months and years. If done successfully, then the winner is left with a significant foundation for the next go round. Voters react not only to what they see personally, but what their neighbors say, and what their co workers say. They react to a chance to speak with the candidate, to see the candidate in action, and to get information from a non-campaign source. There is a churn effect from that, just as there is a churn effect when a candidate does something great or horrendous and that act is publicized.

Frankly, I don't see how a campaign can win without doing all these things. That makes them less under the radar than critical and necessary, which means you know the campaigns are doing it even if you don't see it yourself.

The problem with todays campaigns is we get stoked about the highly visible stuff. Cool, but that is the easy stuff to see. However, consider how many times after an election do we read of how so-and-so visited x number of voters and knocked on this many doors, and this was the key to victory?

Over on my...I have noted many times the fundamental value of the Lincoln 4-Step (ID potential voters, ID favorables, persuage undecideds, get your favorables to the polls). Lincoln laid this out in a letter when he ran for Congress in the 1840's, and it still hold true today...everything else is just a tool that accomplishes one of these goals.

Why quote myself? Because I can, and the campaign to automobile analogy is too good not use use on my own blog. ;-)

Head to the mineshaft and join the discussion!

Devastating Commentary

Former Governor and Richmond Mayor Douglas Wilder used an interview with the Washington Times to scold James Webb for his failure to make clear to Virginia voters what he stands for.

An interesting messanger, and an even more interesting message. It would not seem necessary to have to give a candidate such advice.

Wilder went on to suggest that "Mr. Webb still trails Republican Sen. George Allen, in part, because he has failed to articulate a message beyond opposing Mr. Allen and President Bush."

More Virginia Endorsements

Since we last touched on the subject, more Northern Virginia endorsements have been made.

Last week, the Washington Post endorsedJim Webb and the Washington Times endorsed George Allen.

Yesterday, the Washington Times endorsed Frank Wolf. This was in addition to their earlier editorial on his bright record of defending human rights.

As noted in an earlier post, Mr. Wolf has also been endorsed by the Washington Post and the Loudoun Easterner

The Easterner offers a most practical advice for the 10th district. After singing Frank Wolf's praises for what he has done for the 10th district, the article notes that "even if Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, Frank Wolf will remain more influential on our behalf here in the 10th District than Feder could be" due to his experience and seniority.

Candidate Domain Names and a Hypothetical Question

Kenton Ngo posts on a GOP candidate who neglected to purchase a simple domain name, and whose opponent purchased it and now uses it as an attack site...or is that oppo information opportunity site? ;-)

Kenton urges candidates to be sure to register all the various sites that could be used to support a candidate to avoid this kind of thing.

Following Kenton's line of thinking, I offer a hypothetical question to see what sites a candidate should look to get.

I decide to run for Congress. What domain names should Bwana register for? Obvious ideas would be things like:

Bwana4Congress
BwanaforCongress
Congress4Bwana
CongressforBwana
BwanaCongress
BwanainCongress
Bwanawillgivefreekrispykremedonutstoallvotersifelected

So, beyond the really obvious ones, and using Bwana as the candidate, what domain names should a candidate register for to either support his/her candidacy, remove it from use by the opposition, or both?

We won't worry about whether they are .com/.net/ etc...and let's just assume that any suggestion that includes physiologically impossible acts will not pass the moderation process.

So, have at it!

Signage: I'm not feeling the Love in the 50th, and the Return of Burma Shave

I am a Manassas boy by birth, and my father still lives there, so I follow politics in Prince William County with some interest...which leads me to ask what is the story in the 50th?

Now the in the know politico is aware there is a special election on tap to select a new delegate for Virginia House District 50 following the death of long time Delegate Harry Parrish. This district is traditionally conservative, and has been reliably GOP, and prior to that Byrd Democrat, and prior to that Martin Machine, all the way back to the Age of Pericles.

I wonder about that now...

Yesterday I was down to Manassas to see my father and help him run some errands. The trip took us all over town. I saw plenty of Wolf signs and Allen signs, a couple of Webb signs, and a couple of Rishell signs, and no Feder signs.

What struck me was the dearth of Jackson Miller signs.

Miller is a city councilman and the GOP nominee. He is opposed by Democrat Jeanette Rishell. I expected to see a lot more signage for Miller as I trawled around town, but there were far fewer than I expected.

You may think "maybe you missed them." This is not an unreasonable sentiment. However, it would be easier to miss the Rishell signs. They are of the same cookie cutter color palette of white lettering on blue background as you see with Allen, Webb, Davis, and Hurst.

Miller, on the other other hand, has something a little more vibrant:



This is a sign that you can easily pick out while driving by, and remember after seeing it...or notice when you don't see a lot of them.

I don't pretend to know if this is indicative of anything...for all I know, there is a massive sign campaign set for Saturday that will turn the whole of the 50th district into a running Miller sign. I do know that I expected to see more signs. As my old pal Carman might say, this should be a "state your presence with author-t-tay" type of race, where the GOP pushes Miller through to a huge win and locks down this seat for a decade.

We shall see...

On a different sign front, on a detour on my way home to spend a B&N birthday gift card, I see the old Burma Shave sign technique is being rolled out by the Democrats.

For those who don't remember, Burma Shave was a shaving cream that to advertise would post a series of small signs that displayed a small rhyme then the words Burma Shave!. They went into use in 1925, and by 1963 had been displaced by television and billboards. Examples can be seen here.

The Democrats have signs up in the median of Va. 50 between I-66 and the next traffic light heading west (Fair Lakes Drive? Promenade?), using the same technique:

Sign #1-Had Enough
Sign #2-Republican Corruption?
Sign #3-Vote Democratic!

If not the exact words, fairly close to the original. If the signs had the Miller Red color scheme, I probably would have seen them better and remembered them better...but that is a supposition, because I didn't see enough of the Miller signs in Manassas to really test the color scheme.

I Weep for Jimmy Buffett, and yet I Hope...

Today as I drove back from Manassas (a/k/a The social and cultural mecca of the east coast) after seeing my father, I popped the new Jimmy Buffett CD into the car player, and as the music began to wash over me I had one sudden, compelling, overwhelming thought...

What in the hell happened to this man?

Understand, I grew up in a musical household. Mom got me listening to the Beatles, and I developed an eclectic taste that had a toe in every pond from Southern Rock to Pop Rock to R&B, and I had a wide variety of LP's ranging from Jim Croce to Lynyrd Skynyrd to Marvin Gaye and Eddie Kendricks...and of course Jimmy Buffett.

Jimmy Buffett was not only talented and unique, he was the only one of my favorites who surved into my thirties.

Jeff Grady got me listening to him one day in 1975, and I was hooked from the first time I heard the lyrics to "The Great Filling Station Holdup":

We got fifteen dollars and a can of STP
A big ol' jar of cashew nuts and a Japanese TV
Feelin' we had pulled the biggest heist of our career
We're wanted men, we'll strike again
But first let's have a beer

For years I caught every concert I could...I had a drunken pal heave on me at a Kings Dominion concert, and then again at Merriwether Post. I saw Buffett in Nashville, Jacksonville, Pennsylvania, and time and again in Virginia.

Then around 1985, after "Last Mango in Paris", he seemed to focus more on his various business ventures and less on his music. Maybe as he worked out the strife of his younger days and became more content with life, and it served to bank fire he had. Buffett did not just write songs, but stories about good people and bad times and wild moments and faraway places...now it is all almost interchangeable. Now he has maybe one memorable song per disc...and days like today I find it unbearably disappointing.

But there is hope...

There is hope that one day he will come back, and bring back the mojo of his younger days. I shall never give up the wait, because anyone who can turn out songs and lyrics like that, well...you just can't give up hope.

Death of an Unpopular Poet (Jimmy Buffett-1973)

I once knew a poet
Who lived before his time
He and his dog Spooner
Would listen while he'd rhyme
Words to make ya happy
Words to make you cry
Then one day the poet suddenly did die

But he left behind a closet
Filled with verse and rhyme
And through some strange transaction
One was printed in the Times
And everybody's searchin'
For the king of undergound
Well they found him down in Florida
With a tombstone for a crown

Everybody knows a line
From his book that cost four ninety-nine
I wonder if he knows he's doin'
Quite this fine

'Cause his books are all best sellers
And his poems were turned to song
Had his brother on a talk show
Though they never got along
And now he's called immortal
Yes he's even taught in school
They say he used his talents
A most proficient tool

But he left all of his royalties
To Spooner his ol' hound
Growin' old on steak and bacon
In a doghouse ten feet 'round
And everybody wonders
Did he really lose his mind
No he was just a poet who lived before his time
He was just a poet who lived before his time

Why do I wait? Because I believe, and because I believe I still hope...

Wolf-Feder Debate follow up: Loudoun Easterner endorses Wolf

As a follow up to the debate posting, I would note that in today's edition the Loudoun Easterner endorsed Frank Wolf for reelection.

Wolf v. Feder-Field Reports

Republican Congressman Frank Wolf and Democratic challenger Judy Feder went at it last night in a debate at the Dulles Hyatt. They were joined by Libertarian party candidate Wilbur Wood and Independent candidate Neeraj Nigam.

All questions were addressed to and answered by each candidate, with a rotation amoung the candidates as to who answered each question first. Every candidate apparently had one rebuttal opportunity they could use at a moment of their choosing.

There are a variety of sources to check in with...there are MSM reports from the Washington Post and the Northern Virgina Daily. News Channel 8 will be replaying the debate in the days ahead.

For a purely partisan take on the debate, hop over to RK, where a claim is made for a Feder knockout, as well as a suggestion that Mr. Wolf has Tourette's Syndrome...glad to see the use of ad hominem attacks has not gone out of style.

Both BVBL.net and Richmond War Room also offer reports that challenge the RK report.

High Points (as garnered from other postings):

Mrs. Feder repeatedly challenged Congressman Wolf on Iraq and the Wolf Commission, and Congressman Wolf noted that (correctly, to my knowledge) that at present this is seen in most corners as presenting the best way to create an orderly disengagemenet from Iraq, without regard to party concern. Mrs. Feder replied to the affect "Isn't that what Congress is supposed to be doing anyway?"

Mrs. Feder attacked Congressman Wolf over the Mark Foley matter, and after Wolf noted no one had ever challenged his ethics Mr. Wood chided Mrs. Feder for hypocrisy, noting that the scandals in Congress have been going on for generations under both Democratic and Republican majorities.

After stating that she agreed with President Bush's Immigration plan, Mrs. Feder learned that she had mischaracterized Congressman Wolf on the matter-he is not in favor of the plan, as it does not do enough to guard our borders.

Congressman Wolf produced a letter from a constituent who voiced her praise for the current senior citizen prescription plan and her concerns that Mrs. Feder wanted to end a program that had worked well for her. (Bwana disclaimer-my father is up there in years, uses the federal plan, and has considered a marvel and a real money saver)

The Feder partisans have claimed it a clear win, and the Wolf partisans will certainly claim a KO for the Congressman.

WaPo scores a Hat Trick for Webb Candidacy!

Today I tip my hat to the Washington Post.

We all know they are for Webb, and today they finally dropped any pretense of being objective in its coverage of the Senate race, as they were able to put three different pro-Webb pieces in today's paper.

But the amazing and applaudable thing is their creativity...they managed to drop the articles into three different sections!

There was a pro-Webb article in the Style section, another pro-Webb piece in the Metro section, and finally an Editorial endorsement in the A-section.

As I said before, the real financial picture of this campaign will not be truly accurate until the Webb campaign has to report some kind of in-kind contribution from the WaPo for all its coverage of his campaign.

RK diaries, Hurst Miss Point

The GOP has one amazing ally in this election campaign-the missed and mixed messages the Democrats are putting out.

Zipping around the blogosphere and MSM a couple of items came to my attention...

Virginia 10-Comparing Apples and Oranges

Some of the folks at RK are not happy the Washington Post gave a strong endorsement to Frank Wolf. One of the RK diarists wrote a sample letter to the editor to be used to complain about the endorsement.

KCinDC took issue with the praise for Wolf's human rights work as he voted for the Military Commissions Act, saying:

Seven House Republicans chose to break with the president and their party and oppose this shameful legislation because they cared about human rights and the principles the United States stands for. Rep. Wolf was not among them. What does that say about his commitment to human rights?

There is no doubt that we want a government that always conducts itself in a manner consistent with the high standards we demand from other countries. But the starving masses of Darfur, the victims of the conflict diamond regions, the oppressed of Nepal, and a score of other groups who suffer from government repression or ecological calamity are a lot different than those who pick up weapons, cry "jihad", and go out to kill US soldiers in the name of a theological movement that aspires to wipe us from the face of the earth.

KCinDC wonders what is Frank Wolf's commitment to human rights?

It would seem that Frank Wolf is much more concerned about people who are suffering due to oppression and through no fault of their own and cannot help themselves as opposed to people who are trying to kill US citizens.

I don't see where this type message is going to win more voters to the Democratic candidate.

Virginia 11-Are all these folks on the same team?

A quck survey of the Democratic or left leaning blogs in Virgina make it sound like Andrew Hurst will win a Truman-Dewey type upset victory over Tom Davis come election day. Then you read Andrew Hurst's comments in today's WaPo, and you have to wonder if he hasn't already given up the ghost.

Marc Fischer has his column in todays WaPo titled "Against Tom Davis, the Good Fight Seems Futile", and includes several quotes from Andrew Hurst.

Hurst is clearly feisty yet overwhelmed. First he says:

His [Davis] popularity is 70 percent in the district," says Hurst. "I was at a Democratic club at a huge seniors complex, and I had to convince a woman to stop voting for Tom Davis -- in a Democratic club!"

Later, Hurst laments those who will vote for Jim Webb and for Tom Davis:

"Those voters really don't want to hear from me," Hurst says with a grimace. "They've already settled this in their minds".

It looks like someone forgot to tell Mr. Hurst he has to be careful what he says to the press...

First Partisan Redistricting was in Virginia

All those interested in politics are familiar with the term "gerrymander", or the reapprotionment of electoral districts to reach a partisan advantage. Most of us (which is another way of saying your truly) thought the first instance of this was when Governor Elbridge Gerry drew a particular district in Massachusetts to favor his party. The papers initially said the district looked like a salamander, then reconsidered to say it looked like a gerrymander (rim shot, please!).

Well, it seems Elbridge Gerry learned from Patrick Henry.

I spent much of this weekend reading the new book by Richard Labunski titled James Madison and the Struggle for the Bill of Rights



It is a marvelous recounting of the struggles Madison endured-once he effectively wrote the Constitution-to shepherd it to passage, all the while fighting a running political battle with Patrick Henry.

For those who have forgotten their civics, after winning independence the USA was governed for six years by the Articles of Confederation. In 1788 a committee tasked with overhauling the Articles actually threw them out and recommended approval and implementation of a new governing document, the Constitution of the United States.

The process for ratification was thus-the Constitution had to be approved for ratification by the Confederation Congress and sent to the states, where the legislature would approved a ratifying convention. Counties would elect and send delegates to said convention, which would vote up or down on a majority vote. The ratified document would go back to the state legislature for approval, and then-if approved by 2/3 of the states-go to the new US Congress for implementation.

The absence of specific protections brought out a formidable list of foes in Virginia. Opponents in Virginia included Patrick Henry, George Mason, Richard Henry Lee, and William Grayson (the latter two the first US Senators from Virginia). Virginia, then comprised by what is now Va, WVa, and Ky, was a critical link in creating the new constitutional government. Virginia ratified only after a lengthy debate by the narrow margin of 89-79.

This is where it gets political.

Patrick Henry was in the state legislature, and in charge of drawing the new congressional districts. He did not like the constitution, thinkind it centralized too much power and would lead to a central government with monarchical powers. He led the Anit Federalist forces in trying to stop it, and believing that the amendments favored could best be put into effect if his chief constitutional opponent was not in the First Congress, he drew districts so as to not only put Madison in the middle of a district that was overwhelmingly Anti-Federalist, but drew the district so that Madison would have to run against James Monroe.

Madison accepted the challenge, ran a spirited campaign (something that was alien to his nature), and defeated Monroe spoiling Henry's plan...and continuing a political career that led first to the House of Representatives, then the Senate, then Secretary of State for Thomas Jefferson, and then election as the Fourth President of the US...and it all started with the first partisan redistricting in our nations history.

However, in the end it all worked out OK. Henry is remembered more as an orator and man of conscience rather than a failed politico, and Monroe ultimately succeeded Madison as President.

Meanwhile, back in the 11th, what about Hurst?

It is late and I am having trouble sleeping, so I thought I would share a little thought that came to mind the other day.

I speculated previously about what happens in the 11th in 2008, and now Mark Warner's move to not run in 2008 makes it even murkier-at least on the Democratic side. I think by 2008 it will be obvious that Warner will be running for Governor in 2009, which means that folks like Creigh Deeds and Leslie Byrne will be blocked from a potential run for governor in 2009.

This development may mean that Leslie Byrne might be more amenable to a run for congress in the 11th district, a seat she held in 1993-1995, even though it is common knowledge that Gerry Connolly wants to run for that seat.

And this doesn't cover the possibility of a Chap Peterson candidacy following a win over Jean Marie Devolites Davis in a state Senate campaign in 2007. Yes, I am changing my tune on that one.

So that's Gerry, Leslie, and possibly Chap! running for that spot.

So what happens to Andrew Hurst? How well does he have to do this year to get a shot in 2008?

Yes, I know the election is not over. He can still actually win. However, he is getting crushed by Tom Davis in fundraising (latest numbers show Rep. Tom Davis (R)- Raised $365,441 with $1,515,904 on hand; Andy Hurst (D)- Raised $118,145 with $74,342 on hand), has not made it onto television, and if signage is any indicator is woefully short of manpower in many areas of the 11th. Davis is running hard and not taking anything for granted.

So, short of winning, what does Bro Hurst have to do be on the ballot again in 2008? We know the 11th district democrats are not a sentimental bunch...they denied their 2004 nominee Ken Longmeyer a chance for a 2006 rematch when they selected Hurst.

So, if Hurst does not win, does he have any shot at a nomination in 2008?

What it Means...

As you have heard by now, former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia will not be a candidate for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008.

Since I like to be in the In Crowd, let me offer my prediction as to what he will do.

1. Mark Warner will not be a candidate for public office in 2007. Thought I would start off easy.

2. Mark Warner will not be a candidate for public office in 2008, although he will take Secretary of Commerce if it is offered to him by a Democratic president-elect.

3. Mark Warner will be a candidate for Governor of Virginia in 2009, much to the chagrin of Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell.

Why?

Because the US Senate is a tomb for presidential aspirations...see my previous post about the Tomb of the Senate. Warner as Governor can be in control of his agenda and not get hamstrung down the road when a procedural Senate vote is spun into a substantive one.

Warner for Governor 2009...get those buttons ready!

Washington Post endorses Frank Wolf in Va 10

In a move I half way did not expect, the Washington Post endorsed Republican Frank Wolf for reelection today:

Mr. Wolf 's Diligence
Our choice in Northern Virginia's 10th District
Saturday, October 14, 2006; Page A20

OVER THE YEARS we have had our disagreements with Rep. Frank R. Wolf , the Republican who has represented Northern Virginia's 10th District since 1981. But those have been outweighed by our respect for his undisputed diligence, candor, active legislative approach and passionate commitment to human rights in some of the world's darkest corners. Those qualities continue to make Mr. Wolf part of a diminishing breed in the House -- of legislators whose independent-mindedness and pragmatic problem-solving outweigh their partisanship. He deserves reelection this year against health-care expert Judy Feder, dean of Georgetown's Public Policy Institute.

In addition to his habitual attentiveness to an array of local issues in Northern Virginia -- congested roads, stressed transit systems and the rising threat of Latino gangs -- Mr. Wolf has made a particular mark in this latest congressional term by his constructive national role. It was chiefly at his prodding that Congress established a bipartisan commission on Iraq, led by former secretary of state James A. Baker III and former representative Lee H. Hamilton, that represents the best hope at this point of forging a national consensus on how to proceed in the war. In addition, Mr. Wolf proposed a big-picture commission to tackle the fiscal and budgetary issues that Congress has so conspicuously failed to address, including entitlement spending on Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare as well as the tax code. The object would be to devise a fiscally sustainable course for the nation and present it to Congress for an up-or-down vote.

Ms. Feder is a smart, credible candidate whose broad experience and deep knowledge of health-care policy have given her a prominent role in that national debate for years; she was a senior official in the Department of Health and Human Services during the Clinton administration. She makes a reasonable case that Mr. Wolf, by some of the party-line votes he has cast, is complicit in assorted policy failures of the Bush administration, particularly its reckless tax cuts.

But if Mr. Wolf has proved anything in 26 years in Congress, it is that he is more than a party-line Republican. His repeated visits to Iraq, Darfur, Afghanistan, Chechnya and other unlovely hot spots reflect his zeal for human rights. For that he has earned respect on both sides of Capitol Hill's partisan divide and a 14th term in Congress.

Surprise #1...I thought the WaPo would go against Mr. wolf this year, especially given what happened with Connie Morella.

For those with short memories, Connie Morella was a moderate Republican Congresswoman from Maryland who was redistricted into a much more democratic district after the 2000 census. Although the WaPo had generally endorsed Morella, when her prospects were not as rosy in 2002 the WaPo came out strong for her opponent Chris Van Hollen. Van Hollen defeated Morella.

Frank Wolf is facing a game opponent in Judy Feder who has been able to bring to bear the collective resources of the Democratic Health care establishment and the Clintonistas against Mr. Wolf and is running a tough campaign. Given that Mr. Wolf is more conservative than former Maryland Representative Connie Morella, I thought that this would be the year the WaPo headed for the door.

Surprise #2...I thought if the WaPo did endorse Frank Wolf, it would be tepid. Instead, they came out with about as strong an endorsement as they could.

One thing is for sure...

If the WaPo-hardly a bastion of affection for GOP candidates-comes out this strong for a GOP candidate, and with the record described in this editorial, it is hard to believe that the voters of the 10th district would not return him for a 14th term.

Friday Miscellania, Part Deux

Sometimes you catch really good writing on television...

I watched Six Degrees last night, and caught this bit of inspired dialogue between Christine and Steve, estranged parents of an adolescent boy, who it seems has an interest in baseball:

Christine: "Can I ask you a question?"
Steve: "Sure..Anything"
Christine: "How important is it for a kid to learn to hit a curveball?"
Steve: Oh, my god...that is the gateway skill to all that is decent and manly. If you can hit a curve, you'll never leave the toilet seat up, and you'll always remember anniversary's".

Well Said!

Peggy Noonan Rocks!

After seeing so many instances the last ten days of different groups in our society shout down or seeking to silence others, I was gathering my thoughts to post on the matter until I had my weekly fill of Peggy Noonan, who had already written on the matter.

Once again, I find myself wishing I wrote as well as Peggy Noonan-because she says it all, and she says it with style...

Phil Kellam Phoolishness

There are several lens through which I view the 2006 elections. One of them is a certainty that that the biggest risk for GOP candidates is not of GOP voters going Democrat but of GOP voters not voting at all (something I have written of in previous entries).

Apparently my thoughts on the subject are not shared by Virginia Democrats in the second district of Virginia

Democratic congressional candidate Phil Kellam has unleashed an advertisement that attacks GOP incumbent Thelma Drake (Va 2) for her opposition to stem cell research. The advertisement is made by a democratic advocacy group, and has three actors (young man, 30-ish woman, little girl) stating they will face situations they will face down the road (traffic accident, alzheimer, cancer) where stem cell research could provide medical options that would save them, closing with the question "who gave Thelma Drake the right to decide who lives and who dies?"

When this election is over, and Mr. Kellam has lost to Mrs. Drake after a surprisingly large turnout among conservative voters, this advertisement will rank right behind "macaca" as the stupidest move of the campaign.

Why? Because this is waving a red flag to evangelicals and social conservatives to come out and vote. In an atmosphere that is poisonous for GOP candidates, when there are a bazillion articles in the MSM, online, and in the blogosphere detailing voter base unhappiness with GOP candidates, why do anything to encourage them? Why fire up the other guys base?

The fact that the matter is presented in such a visceral manner does not help...except the length of the spot diminshes the impact.

Advantage, GOP

Friday Miscellania...

...sees Bwana winning a Commonwealth Conservative caption contest.

Happy happy joy joy!

Having achieved such halcyon heights, I can get back to learning how to grill the perfect steak, bake the perfect cake, and winning the World Championship of Public Speaking.

The Bwana Family WMD

I have gotten a ping or two about the Bwana Family WMD, and are they really as destructive as I claim?

Answer: Yes. However, given that they are go darn cute no on believes me.



As you can see, they are biological proof positive that I married up...

David Broder and Rose Colored Glasses

David Broder is about half-way wrong this AM...and more's the pity.

I am a long time David Broder fan. I have a worn copy of The Boys on the Bus, written about the correspondents who covered the 1972 US presidential campaign, and even then Broder was one of the most highly regarded political journalists out there. His stature has only increased over time.

But now and then he gets it wrong...and in his piece today in the Washington Post he is wearing rose colored glasses.

Mr. Broder reviews the numerous surveys and other indicators that the electorate is tired of the President Bush, the GOP majority in congress, and their policies. He suggests that candidates of all stripes have seen voters who are "...telling them that the public is tired of the partisan bickering, tired of the gridlock and eager to elect people who will focus on the real problems and work together to find solutions".

Mr. Broder then asks if the electorate will "pull the trigger" and elect a democratic congress, because:

"If that lesson is reinforced by the election results, Washington will change. Congress will be run by people who talk with each other, across party lines."

Huh? Who is he kidding?

There is bad blood in Washington, and one election will not change things. Both parties have contributed, no one's hands are clean.

Short of a capital crime or financial misdeeds, the GOP and Democrats will decry any given behavior if it is done by one of the opposition but defend or rationalize if it is done by one of their own. Campaigns are won by finding wedge issues. We have Red and Blue America in no small part because it is more economical to win elections by carpet bombing segments of the country rather than trying to build a broad based coalition.

Why try to build a Coalition of the Willing that will get you 350 electoral votes when you can run with a Coalition of the Believers and win with 270?

This poisoned atmosphere is nothing new, and manifests itself inside and outside DC. Few can forget the unfortunate conduct at the Paul Wellstone memorial service in 2002 that drove GOP colleagues of Mr. Wellstone's from the service and helped drive his seat into the Congressional column. We see it in Northern Virginia, where Jim Moran (D/Va 8) used to work with his GOP colleagues for the good of the region and would not campaign against them...now he is in the front rank trying to oust these men who have helped him by not campaigning against him...and I will not even begin to address partisan blogs.

One idea comes from Not Buck at the Richmond War Room. NBT suggests that what we need is a big old blowout landslide where one side crushes the other and there is no credible room for allegations of hanging chads, voter intimidation, faulty electronic voting, and all the losers locker room comments that are the rage these days in political circles.

Well, it will take more than that. It is going to take a change in attitude and a change in political tactics before Mr. Broder's prediction reaches to fruition.

It will take a willingness to choose decency over deceit, to opt for dialogue rather than division, and conscientious hewing to a political model and method that looks to the Book of Isaiah ("Come, let us reason together") and not the Book of Conan the Barbarian ("The Best things in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women...")

And until that happens, then Mr. Broder's vision of a capital where people talk across the partisan aisle will be just that...a vision. It may even be a fantasy, a penumbra, a dream...but it will never be reality.

My Son Qualifies to be a WaPo Reporter

I am a proud father.

Why?

Because last night my seven year old son conclusively demonstrated he already has the skills in logic and analysis that will qualify him to write for the Washington Post.

She Who Must be Obeyed had class last night, so when I got home from work I commenced to fixing supper. WMD #1 asks if he can go outside and play after he finished eating. I said yes. When supper was completed and the table cleared, he ran downstairs to finish something.

An hour and a half later, just about bathtime-and pitch black outside- he came back up and asked if he could play outside. I said no, citing the time and the lack of light outside. His reply-"you promised!" I noted that he chose to play in the basement and that if he couldn't play outside, it was the result of his decisions.

Reply-"No, It's your fault!"...and a really amusing bedtime display followed.

Imagine my surprise this AM when I see Michael Shears of the WaPo using the same logic to demean the Allen campaign. His article takes the Allen campaign to task for limiting direct access to the candidate, and closes his article with the observation:

Now, though, it seems that Allen has decided that a Rose Garden strategy -- in which he hunkers down and avoids tough questions for the rest of the race -- may be the only way to ensure that he returns to Capitol Hill.

It may work. And the media's griping about it certainly won't elicit sympathy from the public, which tends to dislike reporters about as much it does tax collectors.

But the real victim could be voters, who will have to make up their minds about whom to vote for on Nov. 7 based almost exclusively on prepackaged, scripted comments from Allen.

That's a shame.

Michael Shears comments score high on the hypocrisy meter, and display the same logic as WMD #1 did last night.

By their Ombudsman's own assessment, the WaPo piled on during the "macaca" controversy. The author of the bulk of the pieces? Michael Shear. The WaPo Ombudsman also refused to say the paper would not continue to pile on, as Shear proved by his scintillating piece on George Allen's wardrobe and how it might be a big shtick to get votes, a piece that used as it's only source the Webb campaign manager.

The Washington Post and its staff has to this point been a leader player in making the Virginia senate election a campaign about personalities and not issues. Given their well known antipathy to George Allen, one can only assume that it knows that in an election based on record and accomplishment that Webb loses. I am half way convinced that a true picture of the campaign finances of this election is impossible until the Webb campaign begins listing in-kind contributions from the WaPo as a result of these articles.

Having created the current atmosphere of "gotcha" questions and articles, Shear does not get to bitch about the Allen accessibility policies. To use the legal jargon, he should be estopped from doing so. He helped create the problem, so he is not allowed to moan and groan. His complaining makes about as much sense as my son's complaint about not being allowed to play outside.

But there is a bright side to this. I now see a bright and clear career path for WMD#1...that is, if that job with the VDOT demolition crews does not work out. After all, the VDOT crews wreak as much havoc as WaPo reporters, but with much greater societal gain as a result.

Al Groh is brilliantly blind

In today's Washington Post sports section, Al Groh is goes on about how he knows more about fans than fans know about coaching. He says (in part):

"Let me put it to you this way," Groh said. "I fly on a lot of airplanes. Just because I fly on airplanes doesn't qualify me to be a pilot. I own stocks. Just because I own stocks doesn't mean I have any idea how and why my broker does things. I don't have any opinion on what the pilot should do, whether he should have flown at 35,000 feet, 15,000 feet. I don't have any opinion. I say, 'He's proven. He's got all the facts. He knows what he's doing. He knows a lot more about it than I do. So let him fly the plane.'

It is a pity that Coach Groh is so woefully uninformed about how his investments are handled. I guess that given the huge contract extension he got he probably feels he does not have cause for concern.

Nonetheless, even Coach Groh would concede that if said stockbroker or pilot was not doing the job, Groh would seek a replacement who was up to the job.

That being the case, no matter how much Coach Groh knows or thinks he knows about coaching, I trust he will understand completely when he is shown the door after this season.

Customer Satisfaction?

I used to sell men's clothing in a high end shop, and learned customer service from the best salesman and harshest boss one could have. For year's I have been on the other end of the equation, doing technical purchasing, so I get to work the process from the opposite end.

It is of ongoing interest to me how the basic lessons of customer service we used at retail to please our customers and that we held our suppliers to are so often forgotten. I have long thought that customer service has gone the way of the dodo.

Apparently I am not alone in my thinging. See here for a great take on the current state of customer service.

Jim Webb is Listening to Me...sort of

Candidates for political office have to put disclaimers on printed material, and offer oral disclaimers on television ad's. Recently the candidates themselves have begun delivering the disclaimers for televsion material.

I have long thought these folks were missing an opportunity, and Jim Webb has heard my thinking.

Most candidates finish their ad's with something like "My name is x, and I approved this ad". It struck me once that this close was too cold, and saying something substantive after their name could make for a better and more focused appeareance.

Jim Webb has done so...in his latest advertisement against George Allen he closes with [paraphrase to the best of my recollection] "I'm Jim Webb, and I approved this message because we need a leader in the Senate, not a follower".

Great idea, great use of television time...

Now only if Mr. Webb could muster the leadership strength he says he will use in the Senate to deal with his staffers with the same decisiveness that Ben Cardin has used in Maryland. When that happens, we will know he is really listening to me.

Shocking and Unexpected News...

In a completely unexpected development...

Webb backers say Webb won the debate last night, and Allen supporters claim victory for Allen in last night's debate.

In other startling news, the sun came up this morning.

Forgotten Music, Governors, and Congressmen

My oldest, a/k/a WMD#1, brought home a lovely gift from a classmate on friday that by saturday evening manifested itself as a major strain of vomitus majesticus that soon spread to all members of the family. Anyone who saw The Exorcist and the pea soup scenes has some idea of what my household has been like the last 48 hours. As I was the least affected, I have been running around dispensing ginger ale, comforting hugs, and doing lots of laundry.

However, every cloud has a silver lining. Yesterday I caught on MTV an hour long show on the making of "Goodbye Yellow Brick Road".

If you need me to explain what that is, then you are too young for this to make any sense.

I pulled out the old double LP and put it on the my old turntable. By that time WMD#1 was on the road to recovery, and was amazed by the analog pops and cracks and fascinated by the album artwork. I have always been a keyboard guy, and Elton and The Piano Man will always have a warm spot in my memories not matter now many drugs they ingested or trees they ran over. Then I hit the forgotten repeated skip in "The Ballad of Danny Bailey", so I pulled the LP and went to the CD. Some time later, as the final notes of "Harmony" drifted away, I remember thinking that there was a time when popular songs of whatever genre had good music and good lyrics.

In the meantime, I found my old copy of Patriot Before Profit, a biography of Governor Thomas Nelson of Virginia, governor during the revolutionary war. Nelson funded a regiment and pushed state spending policies to the nth degree to maximize supplies for the men in the field. During the siege of Yorktown, he was on the field as commander of the Virginai Militia. Told that Cornwallis had set up his HQ in Nelson's home, Nelson requested that the colonial artillery level the house...hopefully while Cornwallis was on the premises!

Occasionally you get an email recounting the privations and losses suffered by signers of the Declaration of Independence. Nelson is always listed as a man left penniless by his support of the Revolution, and the implication is that he went bankrupt in support of the cause. The truth is a little more interesting. When he died he was penniless but he was not bankrupt per se. He actually owned three plantations, plus thousands of undeveloped acres, two homes, a few hundred slaves, and had a significant amount of tobacco cured and ready for shipping. But because of his support of the revolution and the relatively illiquid nature of his assets he had to borrow significantly to keep afloat. Upon his death his estate sold much of his property, settled his debts, and left his family in a very comfortable position...however, he did almost literally die penniless.

On rereading parts of Mogers From Bourbonism to Byrd I was reminded of another great man, but one who has no book written about him (note to self-literary project here?), but is one of the most important Virginia elected officials of the first quarter of the 20th century. Henry De La Warr Flood, better known as Harry, was the 2nd in command of the Martin Organization. He was a ranking member of Congress, and would have gone to the Senate on the death of John Daniels were it not for the risk of a party split if he fought Claude Swanson for the position. Flood authored and presented the congressional war resolution for World War I, was chairman of the House Foreign Affairs committee, and was the linking personage who led the Virginia Democratic Party in the years after the death of Thomas Martin and prior to the rise of Harry Flood Byrd, his nephew and namesake.

As the sturm and drang of the senate campaign roil around us, I read these biographical materials and wonder. Goodbye Yellow Brick Road is in the oldies bin, Nelson is now a community college and Flood a state road. For all they did and meant, they are now pale, blurry memories outshone by the vibrant glow of our contemporaries. But in their day, they were giants. And, as I prepare to watch blogging of the Senate debate tonight, I wonder if we will ever see their like again.

WaPo Cheap Shots Allen Again...

In today's Metro section the Washington Post's has an article asking if voters will be turned off by George Allen's attraction to all things western, saying that "Detractors Call Cowboy Image a Shtick".

Of course, the only detractor that is mentioned in the article is Webb campaign manager Steve Jarding. Apparently the author could find no actual voters who would slam Allen over his attire, so he used Webb campaign staff instead.

The bilious aspect of this article is that post staffer Michael Shear's writes as if Allen's western regalia was a campaign makeover like the "earth tones" transition Al Gore underwent in 2000. Like it or not, George Allen has worn cowboy boots and dipped snuff for years, and took to it when he was very young. You may not like it, but it is a personal style choice and no more.

To suggest that this is shtick adopted for political purposes is silly. However, it does reveal yet again the WaPo antipathy to George Allen.

This article could just as well have described Allen's style choices as bold decisions that marked him as a man who knows his mind and does not kowtow to what others do. That description or something like it has been assigned to every politician in my lifetime who wears a bow tie from former Senator Paul Simon (D-IL) to former Representative Tom Bliley (R-VA).

This article could have noted that although Allen was wearing cowboy boots, a bolo tie, and riding a horse in parades in 1993 when he was elected governor and in 2000 when he was elected to the Senate, demographics have changed, etc., and how will he fare with a changed electorate?

Last time I checked, when congressman vote they are recorded as voting for a bill, against a bill, or no voting. The Congressional Record does not note what they were wearing that day...and I don't think voters care. Voters care about issues, and to date all we know about Jim Webb is that he served courageously in Vietnam, he quit on Ronald Reagan, he used questionable language years ago, that he disagrees with George Allen on Iraq...although he won't give specifics on what to do get out. I think it fair for the WaPo to examine Webb's positions in more depth than they have to date. George Allen has used questionable language, but beyond that has a record in government that could be examined, up to and including legislation he offered, and a discussion of what his positions are on what to do in Iraq beyond "stay the course"?

The column inches for this piece could have been used to examine issues or matters of importance to the voters of Virginia. But that would have required that WaPo to offer a substantive piece on the election, and maybe even a substantive one that might favor Allen.

But as we know from the macaca barrage and the WaPo ombudsman letter that while the WaPo reluctantly agrees it went overboard during that episode, the WaPo is not going to do anything that might even remotely help George Allen.

GOP on the Razor's Edge as viewed Through Ed Tate's Pickle Jar

Ed Tate is a motivational speaker, corporate trainer, and the 2000 Toastmasters International World Champion of Public Speaking. He is not to my knowledge involved in politics. However, Ed uses a metaphor for trust that serves to underscore the problems that the GOP has running up to this election.

Ed observes that trust is like a bank account. From the moment you are born, you earn little deposits (on stage he uses a large pickle jar and coins to make the point) for all sorts of things from walking and grinning and then doing good things. However, when you break trust, the withdrawal is huge. The pattern continues your entire life...you build trust through a series of small acts (deposits), but when you break trust you cause huge drops in confidence (withdrawals).

It's a good story, he's a great speaker, hit the link above and hire him today.

Ed's example also holds true for what has happened to the GOP this electoral season.

Social conservative voters have given years of polling place loyalty to the GOP. That loyalty is at risk of coming undone from overall discontent stemming from national matters like foreign policy and spiraling spending to localized problems from George Allen's comments to the revelations regarding Congressman Foley.

(Editorial note: I refuse to say "Foleygate" When will we stop referring to every scandal as "something-gate"?)

The GOP has managed to hold on through a range of hits...but Foley may be the straw that breaks the camels back. I noted in a post last month that the problem that the GOP faces is not that their voters will vote democratic, but that they will not vote at all.

For those who vote GOP based on foreign policy, economics, gas prices, etc....those folks will likely turn out. Those who vote GOP based on social issues are going to see this development, wonder why the GOP did not do something about it, and then wonder why they should vote for a party that apparently gives lip service to family values and protecting children and honors it more in oratory than in action.

If this holds true, then the GOP will be in a pickle, because their pickle jar will be pretty much empty.

Will This Change Our Breakfast Discussion?

Growing up my father assisted my intellectual development through breakfast discussions of an assortment of wide ranging topics. With rare exception the topics changed as I grew up. The single consistent topics were "How do the Redskins do this week/season/off-season?" and "What was the cause of the War Between the States?"

His point of reference can be inferred by the name he uses to describe what is still sometimes labeled in Richmond as "The Recent Unpleasantness".

He felt that the war was about States Rights. Dad based his belief in great part on the fact that Lincoln did not issue the Emanciption Proclamation until the end of 1862, and even then it did not apply to areas not in rebellion against the USA. I said the cause was slavery, as every reason that is offered from states rights to westward expansion to tariff's had slavery involved as a root factor.

Our discussion goes on still, a testimony to the ability of generations to lock horns over any matter. Given that our country has not reached complete agreement on this subject of discussion, I guess it is no surprise we have not reached a resolution.

Today the Washington Post has a story on a new museum in Richmond. The American Civil War Center looks at the Civil War from the perspective of North, South, and African American, and seeks new answers to some complex questions that still bedevil our country more than 140 years after Appomattox.

I intend to visit this instituion. Maybe it can help Dad and me end this discussion and move on to subjects on which we completely agree.

You know, subjects like why the Dallas Cowboys are truly satan's spawn on earth and are in league with Lucifer.

And for anyone who disagrees with that statement, I have only two words: Clint Longley

Poll Dancing

I posted last summer about political Tabiyas, applying to politics the ancient chess term describing a known position that is arrived at after a series of moves that are well analyzed and predictable. I suggested the same is true in politics, and went on to mention several-all of which we saw kick in prior to Labor Day.

After watching the hyper-energetic fluttering on various Virginia Political Blogs (a/k/a VaPoBlogs), I think we can add another one-which we will call Poll Dancing.

This is not the type practiced on spotlight stages in seedy buildings for $1.00 offerings. No, this dancing is done in broad daylight by bright people who want to validate results they like and invalidate results they don't.

Now when I was a kid, polling meant asking Grandaddy Kline who would win an election. He was a town councilman who had a keen grasp of human nature and frailty, which combined with a tendency toward brutally objective analysis almost always correctly predicted electoral winners.

Then statistics and telephoning and computers kicked in...but even then it was just a matter of comparing the numbers from the poll published in July, and then in August, and then in September, and try to discern the trend.

But nowadays analysts from the campaigns to the MSM to individual citizens can get their hands not just on polls but the questions asked the summary of responses...and will trumpet their take on the numbers.

And that is Poll Dancing

You can see it all over the VaPoBlogs, but best of all at NLS, where Ben and Not Gretchen Bulova (NGB) post about every poll they can find that reflects a Virginia election. It is amazing...they post a new poll, and the hits and posts start coming!

Example: This AM, NGB posted a new Reuters poll that has George Allen leading Jim Webb by 48-37. Response Post #1 was at 0956. By 1051, there were 32 posts. Excellent traffic for any site (well, except for Kos and the like). However, no matter what the poll results, almost all responses are easily categorized

If the analyst likes the numbers...the results are proof from God above that their champion will win a crushing and righetous victory, and prove their candidate should keep doing what he/she is doing.

If the analyst does not like the numbers...the results are fatally flawed due to bad method, bad sample, bad questions, were taken too early to adequately reflect public reaction to a recent event, and at very least provide openings to attack the perceived shortcomings of the opponent.

As the election day gets closer, and more polls come out, make plans to enjoy poll dancing of an even greater and more energetic scale! And the best thing about it is...you don't need to be carrying $1.00 bills to enjoy the show.

***************

UPDATE

Oh, heavens, I forgot one...let's not forget the the dreaded Margin of Error defense, which typically allows the candidate who is behind to write off the results by saying (for example), if candidate X is behind by five points, but the margin of error is six, then they could actually be winning the race! Of course, that also means they could be getting pummeled, but somehow that possibility never is mentioned.

Thanks to the good folks at RaisingKaine and their take on the lastest USA Today poll on Allen-Webb for remininding me of this!

Obama 2008 and the Tomb of the Senate

Jonathan Alter has an interesting analysis of the chances that first term US Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) will be a candidate for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008.

I bet Hillary regret's not going back to Illinois to run for office! ;-)

It is an interesting piece, but what caught my eye was the weight assigned to Senate service in the analysis. Alter writes :

His advisers believe his mere four years in the Senate will not be a liability (Abraham Lincoln ran after two years in the House, Woodrow Wilson after two years as governor, and Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter and now Mitt Romney after four years as governor.) “The Senate is a political tomb,” says one. The longer one stays, the more controversial votes one casts.

This is thinking is consistent with not only my thinking general to the subject, but also recent history.

The last President elected from the Senate was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Several US Senators have contended for a major party nomination based from a senate seat or been tabbed for the VP nod, but only Dole and Kerry have won the presidential nomination as a sitting senator.

Why is this?

1. Voting Record: Alter notes the controversial votes, but I also point to the non-controversial and procedural votes that can be spun against you. Spend two terms in the Senate, and there will be a treasure trove of votes to point to when trying to defeat an incumbent.

2. Control: As the Executive you have more control of the agenda you face, you have control over a large number of appointments, and between these you have a greater opportunity to build a foundation from which to run.

3. Temperment: I think there is a different mindset needed to be an effective executive as opposed to being a successful legislator. Different skills are needed. That is one reason I think it is foolish to hear talk of Jim Gilmore running for the US Senate, and why I thought it was a great move for Mark Warner to pass on 2006 to aim for 2008.

If Obama goes, will this be a trend? Will the new paradigm be that there are two types of Senators? Will US Senators be categorized as career legislators or potential presidents?

It will be interesting to see what happens, but do not be surprised if the equation Obama's advisors are using above does not become the logic used by other senators to run for the party nomination early in their careers as opposed to late.

The Future Scramble in VA11

This morning's Washington Post offers a lengthy Virginia Notebook piece on a future congressional candidacy by Gerry Connolly, and notes this could come as soon as 2008, especially if Tom Davis chooses to run for the US Senate.

The WaPo goes on to hypothesize on potential match-ups of Connolly v. Leslie Byrne for the Democratic nomination and Tim Hugo v. Jay O'Brien for the GOP nomination.

Interesting and required reading for NoVa politicos...

The Democrats Mistake in 2006

When the history of the 2006 campaign is written, I think it likely that the Democratic Party will be taken to task for not doing better in this election. Even if they take the congress, they will do it narrowly. This despite this being the sixth year of a two term president (always bad for the party in the White House), a foreign policy seemingly without direction, and significant unhappiness with President Bush's domestic policy. How is it that this late in the campagin the Democrats have not taken control of this election?

I think it is their failure to run a unified campaign and nationalize the congressional elections.

Sometimes a massive change that shifts control of the Congress there has been the result of cataclysmic political mandate (1936 or 1964 presidential election) or a reaction from the same (1938 or 1966 echo election), or a one shot deal (Watergate). More often than not when one party is able to wrip control from the other it has been when the opposition has run a unified, national campaign to gain control. Examples include:

1946-GOP runs on theme "Had enough?"-wins Senate and House for first time since 1931.
1958-Democrats run on the "Eisenhower Recession" and make large gains in both houses of congress.
1980-GOP runs the Tip O'Neill satires attacking a congress that is fat and out of control-takes the senate and and enough house seats that in concert with the boll weevils creates effective conservative control of the House.
1986-Democrats run in a non-presidential year on the Bork Hearings and Iran-Contra and take back the senate and strengthen their hold on the House
1994-GOP runs the Contract with America, and takes both houses of Congress.

Why is the national campaign so important? Because it creates an umbrella that allows other issues to take root. A national theme that attempts to exploit some systemic failing in the opposition sets a tone that typically gives credence to other claims. It creates a constant pressure that the incumbent party has to guard against, and creates openings to then attack on smaller, local issues...which find more fertile ground to take root.

Instead, in 2006 the Democrats have assumed that the discontent was so high they did not need to nationalize the election...and I think whomever made had that bright idea is going to get a big kiss on the lips from President Bush come November 9.

The Democrats had a big opportunity this year. They could have tried to nationalize the election. But they did not...and with it they lost an opportunity.

We Need a Leader More Than a Landslide

Not Buck Turgison at the Richmond War Room suggests that what we need to bring comity and civility back to politics is a landslide. He suggests that in the wake of the Clinton impeachment and the Bush v. Gore we need an election with a clear winner where no one could dispute the results.

I think it is a great idea. I too wish for another 1984 Reagan style landslide. However, I think for the time being we are beyond that, and what we need less than a landslide is a real leader.

Our republic is more divided than at anytime in my memory. It is not just a matter of division on a single major issue, something like Vietnam or the Civil War. Instead, it is a million small fissures that lead us all to be less connected and less willing to see the good in others.

Long commutes, lengthy business travel and electronic communication have eroded face to face communication. We buy on the internet or from the big box store, and the small town merchant whose shop served both commerce and communication is disappearing. We are more seperate than united.

Out politicians are not helping. They play gotcha and try to dazzle us with sweet nothings instead of substance...and we let them. Yep, we are not helping, either.

The Internet has not helped. Blogging, discussion boards, and other venues offer a method for everyone to have their say with an anonimity that negates any need to self-govern what they say, and by doing so ratchet up the temperature by giving full roar to any new bizarre idea or conspiracy theory that comes along.

Our country used to claim to be a melting pot, where all sought a significant degree of cultural assimilation from language to clothing. Now the goal is a mosaic, where everyone seeks to be a hyphenated american as if they somehow would magically give up all claim to their family tree if they don't trumpet their background.

Maybe the hostility has never been far away. Maybe the miracle that these differences have stayed under wraps for so long. I still sit in wonder that a country like Yugoslavia, that significantly withstood soviet interference and was cultural beacon behind the Iron Curtain would, upon the death of Tito, devolve into a killing field that combined the worst elements of ethnic hatred and religious fervor.

No, I don't think a single election can cure the ills that haunt us. I think a single leader can.

I believe there is a leader out there who can remind us of what this country is and has been for so many generations-a beacon of freedom that represents the best hope of mankind. A leader who is willing to not only tell us that we are still a shining city on a hill, but is also willing to make the tough decisions that will allow us to shine for generations to come. A leader who will focus on means and not ends, and will not think the only way to maintain our security is to sacrifice out freedom.

I yearn for a leader who wants us to respond to the better angels of our nature, and not push upon us the worst instincts of our fears...and when that person comes, regardless of party, I will be voting for them.

Yes, I want a lot. But I bet if we find that person, regardless of sex or ethnicity or color, then we just might also find that landslide that Not Buck so desperately wants.